Ligue 1
Brest vs 
Angers Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 45.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 70.1% for over 7.5 to 16.6% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.8%. On the corner count, Brest are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 53.3%, with a level count at 10.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| 8.5 corners | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 9.5 corners | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| 10.5 corners | 34.3% | 65.7% |
| 11.5 corners | 24.5% | 75.5% |
| 12.5 corners | 16.6% | 83.4% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
71.0%
55.3%
39.9%
59.2%
41.9%
27.3%
Corner handicap
| Brest line | Brest | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42.2% | 57.8% |
| -0.5 | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| +0.5 | 64.2% | 35.8% |
| +1.5 | 74.1% | 26.0% |
This season (2026/27)
5.6Brest corners won per game3.6Brest corners conceded per game7.6Angers corners won per game6.2Angers corners conceded per gameCorners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Brest.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
45.8%Over 9.5 corners55.3%Brest over 4.5 corners41.9%Angers over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalFor the team lines, Brest over 4.5 corners sits at 55.3% and Angers at 41.9%. This season Brest have averaged 5.6 corners won a game and Angers 7.6.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Brest vs Angers?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 45.8% for Brest vs Angers.
Which team will win the corner count in Brest vs Angers?
The model rates Brest to win the corner count at 53.3%, with a level count at 10.9%.
How many corners do Brest and Angers average this season?
Brest have won 5.6 corners a game this season and Angers 7.6.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,686 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Ligue 1, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
