Ligue 1
Paris SG vs 
Le Mans Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 48.7%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 73.4% for over 7.5 to 19.5% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.9%. Between the two sides, Paris SG are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 60.5%, with a level count at 10.1%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 73.4% | 26.6% |
| 8.5 corners | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| 9.5 corners | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| 10.5 corners | 38.2% | 61.8% |
| 11.5 corners | 27.9% | 72.1% |
| 12.5 corners | 19.5% | 80.6% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
76.9%
62.6%
47.7%
56.1%
38.8%
24.6%
Corner handicap
| Paris SG line | Paris SG | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 29.1% | 70.9% |
| -1.5 | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| -0.5 | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| +0.5 | 70.6% | 29.4% |
This season (2026/27)
6.0Paris SG corners won per game1.2Paris SG corners conceded per game2.6Le Mans corners won per game7.0Le Mans corners conceded per gameThe corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Paris SG.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
49.9%Over 9.5 corners62.6%Paris SG over 4.5 corners38.8%Le Mans over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Paris SG over 4.5 corners sits at 62.6% and Le Mans at 38.8%. This season Paris SG have averaged 6.0 corners won a game and Le Mans 2.6.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Paris SG vs Le Mans?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 49.9% for Paris SG vs Le Mans.
Which team will win the corner count in Paris SG vs Le Mans?
The model rates Paris SG to win the corner count at 60.5%, with a level count at 10.1%.
How many corners do Paris SG and Le Mans average this season?
Paris SG have won 6.0 corners a game this season and Le Mans 2.6.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,686 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Ligue 1, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
