Ligue 1
Monaco vs 
Toulouse Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 45.7%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 70.7% for over 7.5 to 17.1% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.4%. Head to head on corners, Monaco are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 56.1%, with a level count at 10.7%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 70.7% | 29.3% |
| 8.5 corners | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| 9.5 corners | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| 10.5 corners | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| 11.5 corners | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| 12.5 corners | 17.1% | 82.9% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
73.0%
57.6%
42.3%
57.5%
40.1%
25.7%
Corner handicap
| Monaco line | Monaco | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 24.8% | 75.2% |
| -1.5 | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| -0.5 | 56.1% | 44.0% |
| +0.5 | 66.8% | 33.2% |
This season (2026/27)
4.0Monaco corners won per game5.5Monaco corners conceded per game4.3Toulouse corners won per game4.5Toulouse corners conceded per gameCorners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Monaco.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
46.4%Over 9.5 corners57.6%Monaco over 4.5 corners40.1%Toulouse over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalFor the team lines, Monaco over 4.5 corners sits at 57.6% and Toulouse at 40.1%. This season Monaco have averaged 4.0 corners won a game and Toulouse 4.3.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Monaco vs Toulouse?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 46.4% for Monaco vs Toulouse.
Which team will win the corner count in Monaco vs Toulouse?
The model rates Monaco to win the corner count at 56.1%, with a level count at 10.7%.
How many corners do Monaco and Toulouse average this season?
Monaco have won 4.0 corners a game this season and Toulouse 4.3.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Ligue 1, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
