AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
MonacoMonacoWDWDL
Full time1-1Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1014:00UK
LilleLilleWWLWD

Monaco 1-1 Lille cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.5%

Result

Monaco1-1Lille
7 yellow cardsMonaco 3, Lille 4
1 red cardsMonaco 0, Lille 1
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 51.5% and it landed (7 in the match). We called No at 80.9% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards51.5%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

François Letexier

Recorded match referee.

François Letexier in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 23 5
Goals 2.57 2.20
Yellow cards 4.35 3.60
Red cards 0.39 0.60
Corners 9.9 9.6
Fouls 23.3 20.4
Both teams scored 48% 80%
Over 2.5 goals 48% 40%
Home wins 48% 40%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Monaco vs Lille 1-1 2 Yes 7 1 7 31
18 Oct 2026 Lyon vs Nice 2-1 3 Yes 4 1 10 20
20 Sep 2026 Marseille vs Paris SG 1-2 3 Yes 3 1 10 12
12 Sep 2026 Auxerre vs Nice 1-0 1 No 2 0 11 16
29 Aug 2026 Lyon vs Le Havre 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 10 23
17 May 2026 Lyon vs Lens 0-4 4 No 5 0 28 21
10 May 2026 Auxerre vs Nice 2-1 3 Yes 1 0 11 24
26 Apr 2026 Le Havre vs Metz 4-4 8 Yes 4 0 10 24
4 Apr 2026 Lille vs Lens 3-0 3 No 5 0 6 22
22 Mar 2026 Lyon vs Monaco 1-2 3 Yes 4 1 8 30

François Letexier referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Monaco vs Lille. The model leans toward Lille for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 72.2% 27.8%
3.5 cards 51.5% 48.5%
4.5 cards 32.1% 67.9%
5.5 cards 17.6% 82.4%

Who picks up more cards

Monaco
37.4%
Level
21.5%
Lille
41.2%

Team cards lines

Monaco

Over 1.5
54.4%
Over 2.5
27.6%

Lille

Over 1.5
57.2%
Over 2.5
30.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Monaco's; Lille gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Monaco line Monaco Lille
-1.5 19.6% 80.4%
-0.5 37.4% 62.6%
+0.5 58.9% 41.2%
+1.5 77.6% 22.4%

Red card

Any red card19.1%
Monaco red card12.7%
Lille red card7.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 73.7% 26.3%
22.5 fouls 60.2% 39.8%
24.5 fouls 45.9% 54.1%
MonacoMonaco

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Monaco at home and Lille away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

LilleLille
Statistic
Monaco
Lille
Yellow cards per game
1.8
1.2

First-half yellow cards per game
0.4
0.0

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.4
1.2

Matches with card data
1
3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 51.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 72.2% for over 2.5 to 17.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.5%. Head to head on cards, Lille are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.2%, with a level count at 21.5%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Monaco over 1.5 cards sits at 54.4% and Lille at 57.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.1% (Monaco 12.7%, Lille 7.4%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

51.5%Over 3.5 cards
19.1%Any red card
41.2%Most cards: Lille
54.4%Monaco over 1.5 cards
57.2%Lille over 1.5 cards
60.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 51.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 19.1%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianLille are the pick to collect more cards at 41.2%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 51.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
MonacoMonaco

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

LilleLille
Statistic
Monaco
Lille
fouls per game
11.0
10.6

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Monaco vs Lille?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 51.5% for Monaco vs Lille.
Will there be a red card in Monaco vs Lille?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 19.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Monaco vs Lille?
Before kickoff, the model rated Lille to pick up more cards at 41.2%, with a level count at 21.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Ligue 1Monaco fixtures and statsLille fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.