AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Premier League
IpswichIpswichLWLWL
Full time1-1Fri, 23 Oct 202623/1020:00UK8°C · Cloudy
Nottingham ForestNott'm ForestDWLLL

Ipswich 1-1 Nottingham Forest cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.4%

Result

Ipswich1-1Nottingham Forest
2 yellow cardsIpswich 1, Nottingham Forest 1
0 red cardsIpswich 0, Nottingham Forest 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 52.6% and it missed (2 in the match). We called No at 92.5% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards52.6%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Tom Bramall

Recorded match referee.

Tom Bramall in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 150 6
Goals 2.43 1.83
Yellow cards 3.29 3.17
Red cards 0.14 0.17
Corners 9.7 9.0
Fouls 22.0 23.5
Both teams scored 48% 33%
Over 2.5 goals 45% 17%
Home wins 47% 33%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
23 Oct 2026 Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 5 20
17 Oct 2026 Watford vs CharltonChampionship 2-0 2 No 8 0 7 31
10 Oct 2026 Sunderland vs Brighton 0-2 2 No 1 1 12 20
12 Sep 2026 Liverpool vs Fulham 0-0 0 No 1 0 13 19
5 Sep 2026 Brentford vs Sunderland 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 7 28
21 Aug 2026 Arsenal vs Coventry 3-0 3 No 2 0 10 23
10 May 2026 Crystal Palace vs Everton 2-2 4 Yes 2 0 15 18
1 May 2026 Leeds vs Burnley 3-1 4 Yes 7 0 5 23
18 Apr 2026 Newcastle vs Bournemouth 1-2 3 Yes 6 0 5 23
11 Apr 2026 Burnley vs Brighton 0-2 2 No 3 0 10 18

Tom Bramall referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest. It tips Nottingham Forest for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.1% 27.0%
3.5 cards 52.6% 47.4%
4.5 cards 33.1% 66.9%
5.5 cards 18.4% 81.6%

Who picks up more cards

Ipswich
32.1%
Level
21.0%
Nottingham Forest
47.0%

Team cards lines

Ipswich

Over 1.5
50.9%
Over 2.5
24.5%

Nottingham Forest

Over 1.5
61.7%
Over 2.5
34.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Ipswich's; Nottingham Forest gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Ipswich line Ipswich Nottingham Forest
-1.5 15.9% 84.1%
-0.5 32.1% 68.0%
+0.5 53.0% 47.0%
+1.5 72.8% 27.2%

Red card

Any red card7.5%
Ipswich red card5.0%
Nottingham Forest red card2.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 62.2% 37.8%
22.5 fouls 46.1% 53.9%
24.5 fouls 31.0% 69.0%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Ipswich F Hallam 2 3.0 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 52.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.1% for over 2.5 to 18.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.6%. On the card count, Nottingham Forest are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.0%, with a level count at 21.0%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Ipswich over 1.5 cards sits at 50.9% and Nottingham Forest at 61.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.5% (Ipswich 5.0%, Nottingham Forest 2.6%). Ipswich’s most frequent referee this season, F Hallam, has averaged 3.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

52.6%Over 3.5 cards
7.5%Any red card
47.0%Most cards: Nottingham Forest
50.9%Ipswich over 1.5 cards
61.7%Nottingham Forest over 1.5 cards
46.1%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherF Hallam, Ipswich’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 7.5%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianNottingham Forest are the pick to collect more cards at 47.0%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.

FAQ

How many cards in Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 52.6% for Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest.
Will there be a red card in Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 7.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest?
Before kickoff, the model rated Nottingham Forest to pick up more cards at 47.0%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Premier LeagueIpswich fixtures and statsNottingham Forest fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.