Alaves 1-1 Malaga: result, xG and our prediction
Pre-match model estimates · MODELS TOP 3
Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Prediction snapshot · Model generated .
Post-match analysis
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
A call is the side our published probability favoured. If we leaned towards under and three goals went in, that counts as a miss.
The half-by-half shots come from a different source than the match shot total, and we only use them when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. That is why the two numbers can differ slightly.
Match data
| AlavesAlaves | Statistic | MalagaMalaga |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Goals | 1 |
| 0 | Goals, 1st half | 1 |
| 1 | Goals, 2nd half | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | Shots, 1st half | 3 |
| 12 | Shots, 2nd half | 4 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 0 | On target, 1st half | 1 |
| 4 | On target, 2nd half | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1.80 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.81 |
RefereeCarlos Muñiz Muñoz
The result, on the record
Recorded tally 7 of 12 published calls on this match were right.
Published calls · recorded grading
| # | Market | Our pick | Our chance | Recorded grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Match result | Pick: Alaves | Chance: 59.3% | Wrong |
| 2 | Total goals 2.5 | Pick: Over 2.5 | Chance: 50.5% | Wrong2 goals |
| 3 | Total goals 1.5 | Pick: Over 1.5 | Chance: 75.6% | Correct2 goals |
| 4 | Total goals 3.5 | Pick: Under 3.5 | Chance: 71.5% | Correct2 goals |
| 5 | Both teams to score | Pick: Yes | Chance: 50.2% | Correct |
| 6 | First-half goal | Pick: Yes | Chance: 69.7% | Correct |
| # | Market | Our pick | Our chance | Recorded grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Second-half goal | Pick: Yes | Chance: 77.8% | Correct |
| 8 | Total corners 9.5 | Pick: Over 9.5 | Chance: 51.1% | Wrong9 corners |
| 9 | Yellow cards 3.5 | Pick: Over 3.5 | Chance: 63.8% | Wrong3 yellow cards |
| 10 | Total shots 24.5 | Pick: Over 24.5 | Chance: 51.4% | Correct25 shots |
| 11 | Shots on target 7.5 | Pick: Over 7.5 | Chance: 62.6% | Wrong7 shots on target |
| 12 | Red card | Pick: No | Chance: 88.9% | Correct |
Our verdict
Road2Sushi's own call on this match: the likeliest result, how confident the model is, its strongest signals and the reasons behind them.
Every percentage is a model estimate and every fair price is 1 divided by that estimate. Neither is a bookmaker offer, and a model call is not a proven edge over the market.
Model pick
Save model pickSaved to my betsTop signals
Model read
Form & head-to-head
Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.
Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.
L
L
D
L
L
0 wins · 1 draw · 4 losses
D
L
L
D
L
0 wins · 2 draws · 3 losses
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
Odds: model vs bookmaker
Every price for this match in one place: the model's probabilities next to the bookmaker's, the bookmaker's prices with our gap, and the model's own fair odds for each market.
Bookmaker probabilities are de-vigged (the margin is removed) and come from one bookmaker. A gap between the model and that bookmaker is a disagreement, not a proven edge. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not a bookmaker quote.
Model vs market
Pre-match estimates, recorded before the match.
1X2, Goals, Corners, Cards and Shots: Bet365 prices via API-Football, observed 23 Oct 2026, 11:17 UTC, with the bookmaker margin taken out.
A market probability is the bookmaker's own price with its margin taken out, so the outcomes of each line add up to 100%. A gap from our model is a disagreement, not a proven edge: when we tested 1X2 and goal totals on matches the model had never seen, the bookmaker's closing price was more accurate. For corners, cards and shots we have no such test.
Cards: the bookmaker settles on its own card count, which may include red cards. Our model counts yellow cards only.
Shots: the bookmaker settles on its own shot count, which can differ from the match statistics our model learns from.
Every market price shown was recorded before kick-off.
1X2
Goals
Cards
Corners
Shots
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (APIF:8) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Gap is our probability minus the probability the bookmaker price implies (1 divided by the price), in percentage points. Because the price includes the margin, most gaps are negative. Model highlights are outcomes where our probability is at least 15 points higher. A gap is a disagreement, not a proven edge.
After full time these are the stored pre-match prices, kept for the record. They are not current prices, so no outcome is highlighted.
Match result · 1X2
Goals · 2.5
Model fair odds
Our published model probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote. Only the supported 1X2 calibration pool is calibrated; other markets retain their model estimates.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
Goals
Both teams combined.
Read context
Both teams combined
Over 1.5 · Strongest read · Very likely
Over 2.5 · Close call
BTTS · Yes · Close call
Corners
Both teams combined.
Read context
Both teams combined
Over 7.5 corners · Likely
Over 8.5 corners · Likely
Over 9.5 corners · Close call
Over 10.5 corners · Unlikely
Over 11.5 corners · Long shot
Over 12.5 corners · Long shot
Most corners
Each team has its own model probability; these outcomes are not renormalised.
53.3%
Fair odds 1.8836.0%
Fair odds 2.78Read context
Each team has its own model probability; these outcomes are not renormalised.
Alaves
Malaga
Shots
Both teams combined.
Read context
Both teams combined
Over 22.5 shots · Likely
Over 24.5 shots · Close call
Over 26.5 shots · Unlikely
Over 28.5 shots · Long shot
Over 6.5 on target · Likely
Over 7.5 on target · Likely
Over 8.5 on target · Close call
Over 9.5 on target · Unlikely
Recorded shots per game
Shots per game over each side's most recent league matches with shot data, and over the most recent matches at the venue of this match: Alaves at home and Malaga away. These are recorded results, not predictions, and a missing value is never shown as zero.
| Last 6 matches | Shots | Faced | On target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 12.2 | 13.3 | · |
| Malaga | 11.7 | 15.7 | · |
Totals line guide
Both teams combined.
The stored model call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Read context
Both teams combined. Each bar uses the stored model estimate for that exact total-goals line. Missing estimates are unavailable; they are not zero.
Fair odds are the model’s own probability price, not a published bookmaker offer.
Market explorer
Model probabilities and fair odds.
Each bar is a specific Over selection for both teams combined. Its height is the model probability, on the same 0–100% scale.
Risk describes estimated likelihood, not profitability: low risk at least 62%, medium 48% to under 62%, high below 48%. Colors follow the actual estimate, even when a risk band is missing.
Up to four markets are selected from available model data, prioritising a spread of risk profiles. Fair odds are calculated from the model, not bookmaker prices: 1 divided by probability.
Scores are exact home-away outcomes from zero to five goals per team. Unavailable estimates stay blank; partial inputs are not expanded, inferred or normalised. Scores outside the matrix remain eligible for the top three.
Goals
Corners
Shots on target
Shots
| Goal axes | Home goals | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Away goals 0 | 0-07.3%Fair odds 13.70 | 1-011.5%Fair odds 8.67 | 2-010.8%Fair odds 9.27 | 3-06.4%Fair odds 15.55 | 4-02.9%Fair odds 34.72 | 5-01.0%Fair odds 97.09 |
| Away goals 1 | 0-15.6%Fair odds 17.92 | 1-111.5%Fair odds 8.70 | 2-19.8%Fair odds 10.22 | 3-15.8%Fair odds 17.15 | 4-12.6%Fair odds 38.31 | 5-10.9%Fair odds 107.53 |
| Away goals 2 | 0-22.8%Fair odds 35.97 | 1-25.0%Fair odds 20.12 | 2-24.4%Fair odds 22.52 | 3-22.7%Fair odds 37.74 | 4-21.2%Fair odds 84.75 | 5-20.4%Fair odds 238.10 |
| Away goals 3 | 0-30.8%Fair odds 119.05 | 1-31.5%Fair odds 66.23 | 2-31.4%Fair odds 74.07 | 3-30.8%Fair odds 125.00 | 4-30.4%Fair odds 277.78 | 5-30.1%Fair odds 769.23 |
| Away goals 4 | 0-40.2%Fair odds 526.32 | 1-40.3%Fair odds 294.12 | 2-40.3%Fair odds 322.58 | 3-40.2%Fair odds 555.56 | 4-40.1%Fair odds 1,250.00 | 5-40.0%Fair odds 3,333.33 |
| Away goals 5 | 0-50.0%Fair odds 2,500.00 | 1-50.1%Fair odds 1,666.67 | 2-50.1%Fair odds 1,666.67 | 3-50.0%Fair odds 3,333.33 | 4-50.0%Fair odds 10,000.00 | 5-50.0%Fair odds 10,000.00 |
Model’s 3 most likely score outcomes
Model probability · Fair odds
Referee
One match referee is shown from an explicitly saved result or a fresh, identity-matched provider fixture. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment. An API listing can change.
The referee’s totals count every completed match with this referee in our data: football-data.co.uk names the referee in English leagues, and API-Football names the referee of the same match (same teams, date and score) in every league from 2025/26. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure.
The team table shows each team’s published history with that same referee only. Matches, team cards per game and match cards per game are separate fields; their available samples can differ. Missing values are not zero. Cards include yellow and red cards in the current historical source.
Recorded match referee.
| Per match | All matches | 2026/27 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 5 |
| Goals | 2.67 | 3.80 |
| Yellow cards | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| Red cards | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Corners | 9.9 | 8.6 |
| Fouls | 25.4 | 26.0 |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 60% |
| Home wins | 33% | 60% |
| Date | Match | Score | Goals | BTTS | Yellow | Red | Corners | Fouls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | Alaves vs Malaga | 1-1 | 2 | Yes | 3 | 0 | 9 | 26 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Betis vs Osasuna | 5-2 | 7 | Yes | 7 | 0 | 12 | 24 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Celta vs Malaga | 1-1 | 2 | Yes | 2 | 0 | 6 | 20 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Santander vs Elche | 3-2 | 5 | Yes | 3 | 0 | 15 | 36 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | Espanol vs Levante | 3-0 | 3 | No | 3 | 0 | 1 | 24 |
| 18 Jan 2026 | Cordoba vs MalagaSegunda División | 0-1 | 1 | No | 2 | 0 | 12 | 21 |
| 10 Jan 2026 | Sociedad B vs AlbaceteSegunda División | 0-0 | 0 | No | 5 | 0 | 10 | 32 |
| 19 Dec 2025 | Eibar vs ValladolidSegunda División | 3-0 | 3 | No | 7 | 0 | 7 | 32 |
| 7 Dec 2025 | Granada vs CeutaSegunda División | 1-1 | 2 | Yes | 4 | 0 | 7 | 22 |
| 23 Nov 2025 | Cadiz vs Cultural LeonesaSegunda División | 1-2 | 3 | Yes | 2 | 0 | 17 | 23 |
| Team | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| Malaga | Not available | Not available | Not available |
No matching history for this referee is available for one or both teams.
Season stats
2026/27 season. Recorded results, not model estimates.
Overview
PPG scale: 0–3 points per game. Each team uses the same scale independently.
Show all season statsHide season stats
Goals
Scale: 0–3 goals or expected goals (xG) per game. Each team uses the same scale independently.
Shooting
Scale: 0–20 shots per game. Each team uses the same scale independently.
Goal rates
Scale: 0–100% of recorded matches, not model estimates. Each team uses the same scale independently.
League averages this season: 3.08 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56.2% · BTTS in 59.6%. Full league tables & stats →
First half / second half
Averages per game in this season’s league matches, split at half-time. Games is the number of each team’s matches with verified half data for that row; below five matches the row stays blank, and a missing value is never a zero.
Corners, shots on target and yellow cards per half come from the data provider’s half-by-half match statistics and are only used when the two halves add up to the full-time count. Cards are split by the minute they were shown, and first-half stoppage time counts as the first half. These are recorded results, not predictions.
In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the shots per half come from a different source than the match shot totals, so the two can differ slightly.
This match
| Alaves | Malaga | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistic | 1H | 2H | 1H | 2H |
| Goals | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Shots | 6 | 12 | 3 | 4 |
| Shots on target | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Corners | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Per game | 1H | 2H | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scoredScored | 0.57 | 1.00 | 7 |
| Shots | 4.6 | 7.9 | 7 |
| Shots facedOpp. shots | 5.0 | 7.1 | 7 |
| Per game | 1H | 2H | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scoredScored | 0.22 | 0.44 | 9 |
| Shots | 4.7 | 6.8 | 9 |
| Shots facedOpp. shots | 6.7 | 8.1 | 9 |
Players to watch
Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.
A watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Mariano
Antonio Martínez
Lucas Boyé
Chupe
David Larrubia
Juan Cruz
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 64.0% | Over 24.5 | 51.4% | Over 26.5 | 39.1% | Over 28.5 | 28.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Alaves | 62.6% | Most: Malaga | 31.5% | ||||
| Alaves Over 10.5 | 74.3% | ||||||
| Alaves Over 12.5 | 58.2% | ||||||
| Alaves Over 14.5 | 41.6% | Malaga Over 10.5 | 53.9% | Malaga Over 12.5 | 35.7% | Malaga Over 14.5 | 21.2% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 74.7% | Over 7.5 | 62.6% | Over 8.5 | 49.8% | Over 9.5 | 37.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Alaves | 60.3% | Most: Malaga | 27.7% | ||||
| Alaves Over 3.5 | 71.7% | ||||||
| Alaves Over 4.5 | 55.0% | ||||||
| Alaves Over 5.5 | 38.7% | Malaga Over 3.5 | 49.4% | Malaga Over 4.5 | 31.2% | Malaga Over 5.5 | 17.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 81.0% | Over 3.5 | 63.8% | Over 4.5 | 45.2% | Over 5.5 | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Alaves | 37.3% | Most: Malaga | 43.6% | ||||
| Alaves Over 1.5 | 61.9% | ||||||
| Alaves Over 2.5 | 35.7% | Malaga Over 1.5 | 66.0% | Malaga Over 2.5 | 40.2% |
Alaves: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariano | 2.69 | 1.7 | 0.42 | 46.9% | 26.4% | 14.5% |
| Antonio Martínez | 3.21 | 1.12 | 0.35 | 51.5% | 61.4% | 20.3% |
| Lucas Boyé |
2.89 | 1.03 | 0.55 | 55.4% | 66.1% | 35.0% |
 Abderrahmane Rebbach |
1.69 | 0.64 | 0.04 | 33.3% | 28.9% | 2.5% |
 Ángel Pérez |
1.26 | 0.44 | 0.05 | 31.6% | 29.6% | 4.2% |
Malaga: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chupe |
2.56 | 0.73 | 0.12 | 48.5% | 67.6% | 10.3% |
| David Larrubia |
1.84 | 0.49 | 0 | 35.8% | 49.6% | 0.0% |
| Juan Cruz |
1.12 | 0.47 | 0.09 | 27.8% | 18.3% | 6.1% |
 Carlos Dotor |
0.63 | 0.47 | 0.16 | 31.3% | 9.1% | 12.0% |
 Pablo Martínez |
1.42 | 0.27 | 0.08 | 18.7% | 29.8% | 6.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
| Alaves clean sheet | 40.0% |
|---|---|
| Malaga clean sheet | 16.7% |
| Alaves win to nil | 32.7% |
| Malaga win to nil | 9.4% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen. This is the raw model spectrum. Its match-result marginal can differ from the published 1X2 above; it does not replace the saved prediction.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 57.6% | draw | 24.1% | away | 18.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 81.7% | 12 | 75.9% | X2 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 75.9% | away | 24.1% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 50.2% | no | 49.8% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 40.4% | away | 16.7% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 33.1% | away | 9.4% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 24.3% | home_by_2 | 17.9% | home_by_3plus | 15.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 12.1% | away_by_2 | 4.6% | away_by_3plus | 1.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.3% | 0-1 | 5.6% | 0-2 | 2.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.8% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | 1-1 | 11.5% | 1-2 | 5.0% |
| 1-3 | 1.5% | 1-4 | 0.3% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 10.8% | 2-1 | 9.8% | 2-2 | 4.4% |
| 2-3 | 1.4% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 6.4% | 3-1 | 5.8% | 3-2 | 2.7% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 2.9% | 4-1 | 2.6% | 4-2 | 1.2% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.0% | 5-1 | 0.9% | 5-2 | 0.4% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.0% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 11.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.7% | under_0.5 | 7.3% | over_1.5 | 75.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 24.4% | over_2.5 | 50.5% | under_2.5 | 49.5% |
| over_3.5 | 28.5% | under_3.5 | 71.5% | over_4.5 | 13.6% |
| under_4.5 | 86.4% | over_5.5 | 5.6% | under_5.5 | 94.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 83.3% | under_0.5 | 16.7% | over_1.5 | 53.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 46.7% | over_2.5 | 26.6% | under_2.5 | 73.4% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 59.6% | under_0.5 | 40.4% | over_1.5 | 23.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 77.0% | over_2.5 | 6.4% | under_2.5 | 93.6% |
most
| home | 57.6% | draw | 24.1% | away | 18.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 15.3% | away_+2.5 | 84.7% | home_-1.5 | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 66.8% | home_-0.5 | 57.6% | away_+0.5 | 42.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 81.7% | away_-0.5 | 18.3% | home_+1.5 | 93.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 6.2% | home_+2.5 | 98.4% | away_-2.5 | 1.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.3% | exact_1 | 17.1% | exact_2 | 25.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.0% | exact_4 | 14.9% | exact_5 | 8.0% |
| exact_6 | 3.6% | exact_7plus | 2.0% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 52.9% | draw | 37.8% | away | 9.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 69.7% | under_0.5 | 30.3% | over_1.5 | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.5% | over_2.5 | 11.9% | under_2.5 | 88.1% |
btts
| yes | 13.3% | no | 86.7% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 30.3% | exact_1 | 36.2% | exact_2 | 21.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.6% | exact_4plus | 3.3% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 40.0% | draw | 36.1% | away | 23.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 77.8% | under_0.5 | 22.2% | over_1.5 | 44.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.6% | over_2.5 | 19.2% | under_2.5 | 80.8% |
btts
| yes | 27.1% | no | 72.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 44.2% | H/D | 6.5% | H/A | 2.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 15.1% | D/D | 13.7% | D/A | 9.0% |
| A/H | 1.2% | A/D | 2.2% | A/A | 5.9% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.6% | under_7.5 | 25.4% | over_8.5 | 63.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 36.8% | over_9.5 | 51.1% | under_9.5 | 48.9% |
| over_10.5 | 39.4% | under_10.5 | 60.6% | over_11.5 | 28.9% |
| under_11.5 | 71.1% | over_12.5 | 20.2% | under_12.5 | 79.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 73.9% | under_3.5 | 26.1% | over_4.5 | 58.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 41.3% | over_5.5 | 43.3% | under_5.5 | 56.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 62.7% | under_3.5 | 37.3% | over_4.5 | 45.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.4% | over_5.5 | 30.5% | under_5.5 | 69.5% |
most
| home | 53.3% | draw | 10.7% | away | 36.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.2% | away_+3.5 | 76.8% | home_-1.5 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.6% | home_-0.5 | 53.3% | away_+0.5 | 46.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.0% | away_-0.5 | 36.0% | home_+1.5 | 73.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.4% | home_+3.5 | 88.0% | away_-3.5 | 12.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 64.0% | under_22.5 | 36.0% | over_24.5 | 51.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 48.6% | over_26.5 | 39.1% | under_26.5 | 60.9% |
| over_28.5 | 28.0% | under_28.5 | 72.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 74.3% | under_10.5 | 25.7% | over_12.5 | 58.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 41.8% | over_14.5 | 41.6% | under_14.5 | 58.4% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 53.9% | under_10.5 | 46.1% | over_12.5 | 35.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 64.4% | over_14.5 | 21.2% | under_14.5 | 78.9% |
most
| home | 62.6% | draw | 5.9% | away | 31.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.5% | away_+4.5 | 62.5% | home_-2.5 | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.0% | home_-0.5 | 62.6% | away_+0.5 | 37.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.5% | away_-0.5 | 31.5% | home_+2.5 | 78.9% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.1% | home_+4.5 | 86.9% | away_-4.5 | 13.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 74.7% | under_6.5 | 25.3% | over_7.5 | 62.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 37.4% | over_8.5 | 49.8% | under_8.5 | 50.2% |
| over_9.5 | 37.5% | under_9.5 | 62.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 71.7% | under_3.5 | 28.3% | over_4.5 | 55.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 45.0% | over_5.5 | 38.7% | under_5.5 | 61.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 49.4% | under_3.5 | 50.6% | over_4.5 | 31.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 68.8% | over_5.5 | 17.7% | under_5.5 | 82.3% |
most
| home | 60.3% | draw | 12.0% | away | 27.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 34.7% | away_+2.5 | 65.3% | home_-0.5 | 60.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 39.7% | home_+0.5 | 72.3% | away_-0.5 | 27.7% |
| home_+2.5 | 89.4% | away_-2.5 | 10.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 81.0% | under_2.5 | 19.0% | over_3.5 | 63.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 36.2% | over_4.5 | 45.2% | under_4.5 | 54.8% |
| over_5.5 | 28.8% | under_5.5 | 71.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 61.9% | under_1.5 | 38.1% | over_2.5 | 35.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 64.3% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 66.0% | under_1.5 | 34.0% | over_2.5 | 40.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 59.8% |
most
| home | 37.3% | draw | 19.1% | away | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 21.1% | away_+1.5 | 78.9% | home_-0.5 | 37.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.7% | home_+0.5 | 56.4% | away_-0.5 | 43.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 73.9% | away_-1.5 | 26.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 81.3% | under_20.5 | 18.7% | over_22.5 | 70.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 29.9% | over_24.5 | 57.2% | under_24.5 | 42.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 79.9% | under_9.5 | 20.1% | over_11.5 | 62.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 37.3% | over_13.5 | 44.0% | under_13.5 | 56.0% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 77.1% | under_9.5 | 22.9% | over_11.5 | 59.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 41.0% | over_13.5 | 40.1% | under_13.5 | 60.0% |
most
| home | 49.4% | draw | 6.8% | away | 43.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 29.9% | away_+3.5 | 70.1% | home_-0.5 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 50.6% | home_+2.5 | 69.0% | away_-2.5 | 31.0% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 11.1% | no | 88.9% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.5% | no | 94.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 5.9% | no | 94.1% |
|---|
Method, limits & performance
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
What we use
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Our method
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
What we don’t do
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Performance snapshot
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0106 (56038 matches).
Next fixtures for Alaves and Malaga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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