AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
HoffenheimHoffenheimLWLLW
Full time3-0Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1014:30UK12°C · Rain
LeverkusenLeverkusenWDWWW

Hoffenheim 3-0 Leverkusen expected goals (xg): our prediction vs the result

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

Hoffenheim1.97

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Leverkusen2.43

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Result

Hoffenheim3-0Leverkusen
3.19 – 0.42 xGUnderstat

The match produced 3.19 xG for Hoffenheim and 0.42 xG for Leverkusen, against a final score of 3-0. The chances and the scoreline broadly agreed.

Expected Goals (xG)

Hoffenheim have created 1.97 xG and scored 1.83 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely. Leverkusen have created 2.43 xG and scored 2.67 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

HoffenheimHoffenheim

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

LeverkusenLeverkusen
Statistic
Hoffenheim
Leverkusen
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
1.97
2.43

xG conceded per game
1.77
1.13

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

HoffenheimHoffenheimLast 5
L
Loss · 2-3
W
Win · 2-1
L
Loss · 1-3
L
Loss · 2-3
W
Win · 2-1

2 wins · 0 draws · 3 losses

LeverkusenLeverkusenLast 5
W
Win · 4-0
D
Draw · 2-2
W
Win · 2-0
W
Win · 4-3
W
Win · 2-1

4 wins · 1 draw · 0 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

2HoffenheimHoffenheim wins
0Draws
3LeverkusenLeverkusen wins
3.2Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
HoffenheimHoffenheim
1 – 0
LeverkusenLeverkusen
LeverkusenLeverkusen
1 – 2
HoffenheimHoffenheim
LeverkusenLeverkusen
3 – 1
HoffenheimHoffenheim
HoffenheimHoffenheim
1 – 4
LeverkusenLeverkusen
LeverkusenLeverkusen
2 – 1
HoffenheimHoffenheim

Match outlook

Hoffenheim38.2%
Draw21.7%
PickLeverkusen40.1%

The model leans Leverkusen to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,038Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

40.1%Favoured: Leverkusen
68.4%Both Teams to Score
67.5%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

HoffenheimHoffenheim (1)
Adam Hlozek
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
24.3%
4.12
1+ shot on target
56.9%
1.76
2+ shots
60.3%
1.66
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.07
On target1.27
Goals0.42
LeverkusenLeverkusen (1)
Patrik Schick
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
51.0%
1.96
1+ shot on target
70.5%
1.42
2+ shots
74.5%
1.34
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.58
On target1.64
Goals0.96

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Bundesliga, Expected Goals (xG)

Elversberg vs Mainz expected goals (xg) predictionAugsburg vs Freiburg expected goals (xg) predictionLeverkusen vs Stuttgart expected goals (xg) predictionBorussia Monchengladbach vs Paderborn expected goals (xg) predictionSchalke 04 vs RB Leipzig expected goals (xg) predictionWerder Bremen vs Hoffenheim expected goals (xg) prediction

Related

BundesligaHoffenheim fixtures and statsLeverkusen fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.