AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
HoffenheimHoffenheimLWLLW
Full time3-0Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1014:30UK12°C · Rain
LeverkusenLeverkusenWDWWW

Hoffenheim 3-0 Leverkusen cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.5%

Result

Hoffenheim3-0Leverkusen
6 yellow cardsHoffenheim 2, Leverkusen 4
1 red cardsHoffenheim 1, Leverkusen 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 52.5% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 84.9% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards52.5%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Daniel Siebert

Recorded match referee.

Daniel Siebert in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 21 4
Goals 3.57 Not available
Yellow cards 3.57 Not available
Red cards 0.19 Not available
Corners 10.0 Not available
Fouls 21.4 Not available
Both teams scored 57% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 86% Not available
Home wins 48% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen 3-0 3 No 8 1 8 20
10 Oct 2026 RB Leipzig vs Ein Frankfurt 6-0 6 No 4 0 9 29
12 Sep 2026 Augsburg vs Leverkusen 2-2 4 Yes 2 0 16 18
30 Aug 2026 Freiburg vs Werder Bremen 4-1 5 Yes 2 0 11 29
16 May 2026 St Pauli vs Wolfsburg 1-3 4 Yes 5 0 17 15
2 May 2026 Werder Bremen vs Augsburg 1-3 4 Yes 2 0 10 15
18 Apr 2026 Hoffenheim vs Dortmund 2-1 3 Yes 5 0 7 25
4 Apr 2026 Freiburg vs Bayern Munich 2-3 5 Yes 6 0 13 22
7 Mar 2026 FC Koln vs Dortmund 1-2 3 Yes 2 1 13 22
1 Mar 2026 Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster2. Bundesliga 1-2 3 Yes 5 1 7 20

Daniel Siebert referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen. It tips Hoffenheim for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.0% 27.0%
3.5 cards 52.5% 47.5%
4.5 cards 33.1% 66.9%
5.5 cards 18.4% 81.6%

Who picks up more cards

Hoffenheim
47.4%
Level
20.9%
Leverkusen
31.7%

Team cards lines

Hoffenheim

Over 1.5
62.0%
Over 2.5
35.0%

Leverkusen

Over 1.5
50.6%
Over 2.5
24.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Hoffenheim's; Leverkusen gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Hoffenheim line Hoffenheim Leverkusen
-1.5 27.5% 72.5%
-0.5 47.4% 52.6%
+0.5 68.3% 31.7%
+1.5 84.4% 15.6%

Red card

Any red card15.1%
Hoffenheim red card11.6%
Leverkusen red card4.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 53.1% 46.9%
22.5 fouls 40.6% 59.4%
24.5 fouls 29.4% 70.6%
HoffenheimHoffenheim

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Hoffenheim at home and Leverkusen away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

LeverkusenLeverkusen
Statistic
Hoffenheim
Leverkusen
Cards per game at this venue
3.0
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
0.7
·

Yellow cards per game
2.2
1.6

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.0

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.6
1.6

Matches with more cards than the opponent
100.0%
·

Matches with card data
5
0
Red cards this season
1
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 52.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.0% for over 2.5 to 18.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.5%. Between the two sides, Hoffenheim are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.4%, with a level count at 20.9%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Hoffenheim over 1.5 cards sits at 62.0% and Leverkusen at 50.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.1% (Hoffenheim 11.6%, Leverkusen 4.0%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

52.5%Over 3.5 cards
15.1%Any red card
47.4%Most cards: Hoffenheim
62.0%Hoffenheim over 1.5 cards
50.6%Leverkusen over 1.5 cards
40.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 15.1%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianHoffenheim are the pick to collect more cards at 47.4%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 52.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
HoffenheimHoffenheim

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

LeverkusenLeverkusen
Statistic
Hoffenheim
Leverkusen
cards per game
2.4
·

fouls per game
13.4
12.4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 52.5% for Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen.
Will there be a red card in Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 15.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen?
Before kickoff, the model rated Hoffenheim to pick up more cards at 47.4%, with a level count at 20.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

BundesligaHoffenheim fixtures and statsLeverkusen fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.