AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
HoffenheimHoffenheimLLLWL
Full time2-3Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1014:30UK15°C · Cloudy
HamburgHamburgDLLLW

Hoffenheim 2-3 Hamburg cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined55.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined44.2%

Result

Hoffenheim2-3Hamburg
1 yellow cardsHoffenheim 1, Hamburg 0
1 red cardsHoffenheim 1, Hamburg 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 55.8% and it missed (1 in the match). We called No at 75.4% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards55.8%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Hoffenheim vs Hamburg. Slightly more cards are projected for Hoffenheim for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 75.5% 24.5%
3.5 cards 55.8% 44.2%
4.5 cards 36.2% 63.8%
5.5 cards 20.8% 79.2%

Who picks up more cards

Hoffenheim
45.7%
Level
20.6%
Hamburg
33.7%

Team cards lines

Hoffenheim

Over 1.5
62.8%
Over 2.5
35.9%

Hamburg

Over 1.5
54.4%
Over 2.5
27.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Hoffenheim's; Hamburg gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Hoffenheim line Hoffenheim Hamburg
-1.5 26.5% 73.5%
-0.5 45.7% 54.3%
+0.5 66.3% 33.7%
+1.5 82.7% 17.3%

Red card

Any red card24.6%
Hoffenheim red card10.8%
Hamburg red card15.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 62.8% 37.2%
22.5 fouls 50.9% 49.1%
24.5 fouls 39.4% 60.6%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 55.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 75.5% for over 2.5 to 20.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.8%. Head to head on cards, Hoffenheim are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.7%, with a level count at 20.6%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Hoffenheim over 1.5 cards sits at 62.8% and Hamburg at 54.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 24.6% (Hoffenheim 10.8%, Hamburg 15.5%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

55.8%Over 3.5 cards
24.6%Any red card
45.7%Most cards: Hoffenheim
62.8%Hoffenheim over 1.5 cards
54.4%Hamburg over 1.5 cards
50.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 55.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 24.6%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianHoffenheim are the pick to collect more cards at 45.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 55.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Hoffenheim vs Hamburg?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 55.8% for Hoffenheim vs Hamburg.
Will there be a red card in Hoffenheim vs Hamburg?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 24.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Hoffenheim vs Hamburg?
Before kickoff, the model rated Hoffenheim to pick up more cards at 45.7%, with a level count at 20.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

BundesligaHoffenheim fixtures and statsHamburg fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.