AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
HoffenheimHoffenheimLLLWL
Full time2-3Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1014:30UK15°C · Cloudy
HamburgHamburgDLLLW

Hoffenheim 2-3 Hamburg corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined54.5%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined45.5%

Result

Hoffenheim2-3Hamburg
10 cornersHoffenheim 7, Hamburg 3
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 54.5% and it landed (10 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners54.5%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Hoffenheim.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 77.1% 22.9%
8.5 corners 66.3% 33.7%
9.5 corners 54.5% 45.5%
10.5 corners 42.7% 57.3%
11.5 corners 32.0% 68.1%
12.5 corners 22.8% 77.2%

Who wins the corner count

Hoffenheim
60.8%
Level
9.9%
Hamburg
29.3%

Team corners lines

Hoffenheim

Over 3.5
79.3%
Over 4.5
65.7%
Over 5.5
50.9%

Hamburg

Over 3.5
59.1%
Over 4.5
41.7%
Over 5.5
27.0%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Hoffenheim's; Hamburg gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Hoffenheim line Hoffenheim Hamburg
-3.5 29.8% 70.2%
-1.5 50.2% 49.8%
-0.5 60.8% 39.2%
+0.5 70.7% 29.3%

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 54.5%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 77.1% for over 7.5 to 22.8% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.5%. Head to head on corners, Hoffenheim are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 60.8%, with a level count at 9.9%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

54.5%Over 9.5 corners
60.8%Most corners: Hoffenheim
65.7%Hoffenheim over 4.5 corners
41.7%Hamburg over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

By team, Hoffenheim over 4.5 corners sits at 65.7% and Hamburg at 41.7%.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 54.5% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderHoffenheim are the pick to win the corner count at 60.8%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 54.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many corners in Hoffenheim vs Hamburg?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 54.5% for Hoffenheim vs Hamburg.
Which team will win the corner count in Hoffenheim vs Hamburg?
Before kickoff, the model rated Hoffenheim to win the corner count at 60.8%, with a level count at 9.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Bundesliga, Corners

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Corner predictions today

Related

BundesligaHoffenheim fixtures and statsHamburg fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.