AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Eredivisie
GroningenGroningenDWWLD
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1115:45UK
Sparta RotterdamRotterdamLLDWL

Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined63.6%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined36.4%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards36.4%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam. Slightly more cards are projected for Sparta Rotterdam for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 58.8% 41.2%
3.5 cards 36.4% 63.6%
4.5 cards 19.4% 80.6%
5.5 cards 9.0% 91.0%

Who picks up more cards

Groningen
31.2%
Level
23.7%
Sparta Rotterdam
45.2%

Team cards lines

Groningen

Over 1.5
39.5%
Over 2.5
15.8%

Sparta Rotterdam

Over 1.5
50.2%
Over 2.5
24.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Groningen's; Sparta Rotterdam gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Groningen line Groningen Sparta Rotterdam
-1.5 13.8% 86.2%
-0.5 31.2% 68.8%
+0.5 54.9% 45.2%
+1.5 76.2% 23.8%

Red card

Any red card6.2%
Groningen red card3.3%
Sparta Rotterdam red card3.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 47.4% 52.6%
22.5 fouls 32.4% 67.6%
24.5 fouls 20.2% 79.9%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Groningen Dennis Higler 2 2.0 0.5
Groningen Martin Van den Kerkhof 2 2.5 1.5
Sparta Rotterdam D. Makkelie 2 2.5 1.0
Sparta Rotterdam S. Gozubuyuk 2 5.5 2.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

GroningenGroningen

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Groningen at home and Sparta Rotterdam away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam
Statistic
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
Cards per game at this venue
0.7
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
1.7
·

Yellow cards per game
1.2
1.8

First-half yellow cards per game
0.4
0.5

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.8
1.0

Matches with card data
5
3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 7,352 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 36.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 58.8% for over 2.5 to 9.0% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.8%. Between the two sides, Sparta Rotterdam are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.2%, with a level count at 23.7%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Groningen over 1.5 cards sits at 39.5% and Sparta Rotterdam at 50.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 6.2% (Groningen 3.3%, Sparta Rotterdam 3.0%). Groningen’s most frequent referee this season, Dennis Higler, has averaged 2.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

36.4%Over 3.5 cards
6.2%Any red card
45.2%Most cards: Sparta Rotterdam
39.5%Groningen over 1.5 cards
50.2%Sparta Rotterdam over 1.5 cards
32.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 36.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherDennis Higler, Groningen’s most frequent referee this season, averages 2.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 6.2%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianSparta Rotterdam are the pick to collect more cards at 45.2%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
GroningenGroningen

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam
Statistic
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
fouls per game
9.8
10.6

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 36.4% for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam.
Will there be a red card in Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
The model rates a red card for either side at 6.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam to pick up more cards at 45.2%, with a level count at 23.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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EredivisieGroningen fixtures and statsSparta Rotterdam fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.