AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar: model prediction
Eredivisie
AZ AlkmaarWWWWD
TelstarLLDLD
Over 1.5 goals
AZ Alkmaar or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Win probability · fair 1.66
Top signals
Model read
Few Eredivisie fixtures are this lopsided in the data: AZ Alkmaar carry a 60% win probability against Telstar on 20 September 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 62% with both teams to score at 58%. 2) Form guide over the last six: AZ Alkmaar W5 D1 L0, Telstar W1 D2 L3. 3) History adds colour: across the last 2 meetings it is 2 wins for AZ Alkmaar, 0 draws and 0 for Telstar at 2.0 goals per match. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
60.2%
21.4%
18.4%
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 2 · 0 draws · Telstar 0 · 2.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
AZ AlkmaarTelstar50.0%66.7%
66.7%50.0%
33.3%16.7%
League averages this season: 3.93 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 79% · BTTS in 71%. Full league tables & stats →
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 74.0% | Over 24.5 | 63.8% | Over 26.5 | 52.7% | Over 28.5 | 41.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: AZ Alkmaar | 65.8% | Most: Telstar | 29.2% | ||||
| AZ Alkmaar Over 13.2 | 61.5% | Telstar Over 13.2 | 34.7% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 84.5% | Over 7.5 | 75.9% | Over 8.5 | 65.9% | Over 9.5 | 55.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: AZ Alkmaar | 64.1% | Most: Telstar | 26.0% | ||||
| AZ Alkmaar Over 4.2 | 67.7% | Telstar Over 4.2 | 40.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 56.7% | Over 3.5 | 34.6% | Over 4.5 | 18.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: AZ Alkmaar | 32.3% | Most: Telstar | 43.6% | ||
| AZ Alkmaar Over 1.8 | 39.1% | Telstar Over 1.8 | 47.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
| AZ Alkmaar clean sheet | 33.1% |
|---|---|
| Telstar clean sheet | 12.3% |
| AZ Alkmaar win to nil | 28.5% |
| Telstar win to nil | 7.6% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 60.2% | draw | 21.4% | away | 18.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 81.6% | 12 | 78.6% | X2 | 39.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 76.6% | away | 23.4% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 58.5% | no | 41.5% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 33.8% | away | 12.3% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 29.2% | away | 7.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.6% | home_by_2 | 18.3% | home_by_3plus | 19.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 11.5% | away_by_2 | 4.9% | away_by_3plus | 2.0% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 4.6% | 0-1 | 4.0% | 0-2 | 2.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.9% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 8.2% | 1-1 | 9.9% | 1-2 | 5.1% |
| 1-3 | 1.8% | 1-4 | 0.5% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.1% | 2-1 | 9.9% | 2-2 | 5.4% |
| 2-3 | 1.9% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 6.4% | 3-1 | 6.9% | 3-2 | 3.8% |
| 3-3 | 1.4% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 3.4% | 4-1 | 3.6% | 4-2 | 2.0% |
| 4-3 | 0.7% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.4% | 5-1 | 1.5% | 5-2 | 0.8% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 2.2% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 9.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 95.4% | under_0.5 | 4.6% | over_1.5 | 83.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 16.9% | over_2.5 | 61.7% | under_2.5 | 38.3% |
| over_3.5 | 39.4% | under_3.5 | 60.6% | over_4.5 | 21.7% |
| under_4.5 | 78.3% | over_5.5 | 10.4% | under_5.5 | 89.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.0% | even | 51.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 87.7% | under_0.5 | 12.3% | over_1.5 | 62.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 38.0% | over_2.5 | 35.1% | under_2.5 | 64.9% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 66.2% | under_0.5 | 33.8% | over_1.5 | 29.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.5% | over_2.5 | 9.6% | under_2.5 | 90.4% |
most
| home | 60.2% | draw | 21.4% | away | 18.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 19.2% | away_+2.5 | 80.8% | home_-1.5 | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 62.5% | home_-0.5 | 60.2% | away_+0.5 | 39.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 81.6% | away_-0.5 | 18.4% | home_+1.5 | 93.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 6.9% | home_+2.5 | 98.0% | away_-2.5 | 2.0% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 4.6% | exact_1 | 12.3% | exact_2 | 21.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.3% | exact_4 | 17.7% | exact_5 | 11.3% |
| exact_6 | 6.0% | exact_7plus | 4.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 39.8% | draw | 41.4% | away | 18.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 69.3% | under_0.5 | 30.7% | over_1.5 | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.0% | over_2.5 | 11.6% | under_2.5 | 88.4% |
btts
| yes | 18.4% | no | 81.7% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 30.7% | exact_1 | 36.3% | exact_2 | 21.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.4% | exact_4plus | 3.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 50.0% | draw | 30.0% | away | 20.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 85.1% | under_0.5 | 14.9% | over_1.5 | 56.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 43.2% | over_2.5 | 29.8% | under_2.5 | 70.2% |
btts
| yes | 34.6% | no | 65.4% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 33.9% | H/D | 4.4% | H/A | 1.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 20.7% | D/D | 12.4% | D/A | 8.3% |
| A/H | 3.7% | A/D | 4.6% | A/A | 10.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 81.8% | under_7.5 | 18.2% | over_8.5 | 72.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 27.6% | over_9.5 | 61.6% | under_9.5 | 38.4% |
| over_10.5 | 50.2% | under_10.5 | 49.8% | over_11.5 | 39.3% |
| under_11.5 | 60.7% | over_12.5 | 29.5% | under_12.5 | 70.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 82.0% | under_3.5 | 18.0% | over_4.5 | 70.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 30.0% | over_5.5 | 56.5% | under_5.5 | 43.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 61.4% | under_3.5 | 38.6% | over_4.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.0% | over_5.5 | 30.6% | under_5.5 | 69.4% |
most
| home | 62.1% | draw | 8.9% | away | 29.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 33.7% | away_+3.5 | 66.3% | home_-1.5 | 52.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 47.5% | home_-0.5 | 62.1% | away_+0.5 | 37.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.0% | away_-0.5 | 29.0% | home_+1.5 | 78.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.3% | home_+3.5 | 90.1% | away_-3.5 | 9.9% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 74.0% | under_22.5 | 26.0% | over_24.5 | 63.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 36.2% | over_26.5 | 52.7% | under_26.5 | 47.3% |
| over_28.5 | 41.6% | under_28.5 | 58.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 81.1% | under_10.5 | 18.9% | over_12.5 | 68.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 31.5% | over_14.5 | 54.4% | under_14.5 | 45.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 58.8% | under_10.5 | 41.2% | over_12.5 | 42.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 57.8% | over_14.5 | 28.0% | under_14.5 | 72.0% |
most
| home | 65.8% | draw | 5.0% | away | 29.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 43.7% | away_+4.5 | 56.4% | home_-2.5 | 54.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 45.1% | home_-0.5 | 65.8% | away_+0.5 | 34.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.8% | away_-0.5 | 29.2% | home_+2.5 | 79.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 20.3% | home_+4.5 | 86.7% | away_-4.5 | 13.3% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 84.5% | under_6.5 | 15.5% | over_7.5 | 75.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 24.1% | over_8.5 | 65.9% | under_8.5 | 34.1% |
| over_9.5 | 55.2% | under_9.5 | 44.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 80.5% | under_3.5 | 19.5% | over_4.5 | 67.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 32.3% | over_5.5 | 53.7% | under_5.5 | 46.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.5% | under_3.5 | 42.5% | over_4.5 | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.7% | over_5.5 | 26.1% | under_5.5 | 73.9% |
most
| home | 64.1% | draw | 9.9% | away | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 42.4% | away_+2.5 | 57.6% | home_-0.5 | 64.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 35.9% | home_+0.5 | 74.0% | away_-0.5 | 26.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.5% | away_-2.5 | 11.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 56.7% | under_2.5 | 43.3% | over_3.5 | 34.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 65.4% | over_4.5 | 18.3% | under_4.5 | 81.7% |
| over_5.5 | 8.4% | under_5.5 | 91.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.8% | even | 50.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 39.1% | under_1.5 | 60.9% | over_2.5 | 15.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 84.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 47.7% | under_1.5 | 52.3% | over_2.5 | 22.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 77.8% |
most
| home | 32.3% | draw | 24.1% | away | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 14.5% | away_+1.5 | 85.5% | home_-0.5 | 32.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 67.7% | home_+0.5 | 56.4% | away_-0.5 | 43.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 77.5% | away_-1.5 | 22.5% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 58.5% | under_20.5 | 41.5% | over_22.5 | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 56.7% | over_24.5 | 29.5% | under_24.5 | 70.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 56.3% | under_9.5 | 43.7% | over_11.5 | 34.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 65.3% | over_13.5 | 18.2% | under_13.5 | 81.8% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 68.7% | under_9.5 | 31.3% | over_11.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 52.1% | over_13.5 | 28.9% | under_13.5 | 71.1% |
most
| home | 37.0% | draw | 7.5% | away | 55.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 18.1% | away_+3.5 | 81.9% | home_-0.5 | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 63.0% | home_+2.5 | 59.8% | away_-2.5 | 40.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 13.0% | no | 87.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 3.7% | no | 96.3% |
|---|
away
| yes | 9.6% | no | 90.4% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: AZ Alkmaar predictions · Telstar predictions · Eredivisie
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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