Monza vs Sassuolo prediction & probabilities (2026-09-18)

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Monza vs Sassuolo: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

Serie A
Monza

LLLDL

Fri, 18 Sep 202619:45UK23°C · Cloudy
Sassuolo

LLWDW

Model’s top convictions

75%

Over 1.5 goals

72%

Draw or Sassuolo

54%

Monza or draw

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
SassuoloWin probability
45.6%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals75.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.33
Draw or Sassuolo71.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.40
Monza or draw54.4%Good chancePays @ 1.84

Model read

▾

"46% on Sassuolo is a measurement, not a promise." A measured edge to Sassuolo: 46% is the model's line for this Serie A meeting on 18 September 2026. Totals sit close to the fence: 50% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 54%. As a promoted side, Monza carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Recent form reads W0 D1 L5 for Monza against W2 D1 L3 for Sassuolo. For shots markets, Patrick Cutrone is the obvious watch at 1.0 on target per 90 in recent data. History adds colour: across the last 4 meetings it is 3 wins for Monza, 1 draws and 0 for Sassuolo at 1.8 goals per match. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Sassuolo win45.6%@ 2.19
Over 9.5 corners41.2%@ 2.43
Over 10.5 corners32.3%@ 3.10
Medium risk

Both teams to score54.3%@ 1.84
Over 8.5 corners51.0%@ 1.96
Over 2.5 goals50.0%@ 2.00
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.8%@ 7.84
0-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.32
1-2 correct score9.1%@ 11.01

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Monza

28.3%

Draw

26.0%

Sassuolo

45.6%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.575.3%

Strong chance

Over 2.550.0%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes54.3%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.551.0%

Good chance

Over 9.541.2%

Toss-up

Over 10.532.3%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.7%

Low chance

Most cornersMonza54.1%Sassuolo35.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.564.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.552.7%

Good chance

Over 26.541.0%

Toss-up

Over 28.530.2%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Monza12.5 taken11.5 faced
Sassuolo14.5 taken15.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Monza (4 games)

7.5 / 6.5

Sassuolo (4 games)

8.2 / 8.2

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.575.3%2.550.0%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.575.3%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

MonzaLLLDL
SassuoloLLWDW

Last 4 meetings: Monza 3 · 1 draws · Sassuolo 0 · 1.8 goals/game.

2024-01-28Monza 1-0 Sassuolo
2023-10-02Sassuolo 0-1 Monza
2023-05-19Sassuolo 1-2 Monza
2023-01-22Monza 1-1 Sassuolo

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

MonzaSassuolo
League position#18 of 20#9 of 20
Record W-D-L0-1-32-1-1
Current streakL1W1
Record, home vs away0-0-10-1-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.02 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 57% · BTTS in 60%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Patrick CutroneMonza · key player
To score11.7%

@ 8.55

1+ on target47.0%

@ 2.13

2+ shots54.6%

@ 1.83

Shots/90 2.79SoT/90 0.97Goals/90 0.19
Domenico BerardiSassuolo · key player
To score26.7%

@ 3.75

1+ on target60.6%

@ 1.65

2+ shots48.1%

@ 2.08

Shots/90 1.98SoT/90 1.14Goals/90 0.38
Andrea ColpaniMonza · in form
To score10.7%

@ 9.35

1+ on target39.3%

@ 2.54

2+ shots44.1%

@ 2.27

Shots/90 2.25SoT/90 0.75Goals/90 0.17
Armand LaurienteSassuolo · in form
To score15.4%

@ 6.49

1+ on target51.2%

@ 1.95

2+ shots61.4%

@ 1.63

Shots/90 2.6SoT/90 0.9Goals/90 0.21
Samuele BirindelliMonza · in form
To score12.1%

@ 8.26

1+ on target40.9%

@ 2.44

2+ shots18.5%

@ 5.41

Shots/90 0.97SoT/90 0.65Goals/90 0.16
Benjamín DomínguezSassuolo · in form
To score6.9%

@ 14.49

1+ on target36.4%

@ 2.75

2+ shots27.3%

@ 3.66

Shots/90 2.01SoT/90 0.89Goals/90 0.14

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Monza win3.41
Draw3.73
Sassuolo win2.28
Both teams to score1.84

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.33
Over 2.5 goals2.00
Over 3.5 goals3.56
Monza most3.41
Sassuolo most2.28

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.57
Over 8.5 corners1.91
Over 9.5 corners2.41
Over 10.5 corners3.16
Monza most1.84
Sassuolo most2.82

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.41
Over 3.5 cards1.98
Over 4.5 cards3.12
Over 5.5 cards5.51
Monza most2.89
Sassuolo most2.25

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.40
Over 7.5 SoT1.66
Over 8.5 SoT2.04
Over 9.5 SoT2.61
Monza most2.02
Sassuolo most2.57

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.55
Over 24.5 shots1.90
Over 26.5 shots2.44
Over 28.5 shots3.31
Monza most1.67
Sassuolo most2.92

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.37
Over 22.5 fouls1.65
Over 24.5 fouls2.11
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 64.5% Over 24.5 52.7% Over 26.5 41.0% Over 28.5 30.2%
Most: Monza 60.0% Most: Sassuolo 34.2%
Monza Over 13.2 49.3% Sassuolo Over 13.2 30.9%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 71.4% Over 7.5 60.3% Over 8.5 49.0% Over 9.5 38.4%
Most: Monza 49.5% Most: Sassuolo 39.0%
Monza Over 4.2 46.5% Sassuolo Over 4.2 39.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 70.7% Over 3.5 50.5% Over 4.5 32.0%
Most: Monza 34.6% Most: Sassuolo 44.5%
Monza Over 1.8 50.8% Sassuolo Over 1.8 58.0%

Monza: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Patrick Cutrone 2.79 0.97 0.19 47.0% 54.6% 11.7%
Andrea Colpani 2.25 0.75 0.17 39.3% 44.1% 10.7%
Samuele Birindelli 0.97 0.65 0.16 40.9% 18.5% 12.1%
Dany Mota 1.98 0.52 0.22 32.2% 43.6% 15.2%
Michael Folorunsho 1.61 0.34 0.06 19.7% 27.9% 3.8%

Sassuolo: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Domenico Berardi 1.98 1.14 0.38 60.6% 48.1% 26.7%
Armand Lauriente 2.6 0.9 0.21 51.2% 61.4% 15.4%
Benjamín Domínguez 2.01 0.89 0.14 36.4% 27.3% 6.9%
Kieron Bowie 2.49 0.85 0.3 54.1% 66.5% 24.0%
Cristian Volpato 1.87 0.79 0.22 33.4% 25.0% 10.7%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Monza clean sheet 22.4%
Sassuolo clean sheet 30.6%
Monza win to nil 14.9%
Sassuolo win to nil 23.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 29.3% draw 26.8% away 43.9%
double_chance
1X 56.1% 12 73.2% X2 70.7%
dnb
home 40.0% away 60.0%
btts
yes 54.3% no 45.7%
clean_sheet
home 22.4% away 30.8%
win_to_nil
home 14.9% away 23.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 17.1% home_by_2 8.3% home_by_3plus 3.9%
away_by_1 21.9% away_by_2 13.4% away_by_3plus 8.7%
correct_score
0-0 7.5% 0-1 9.7% 0-2 7.7%
0-3 3.8% 0-4 1.4% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 7.5% 1-1 12.8% 1-2 9.1%
1-3 4.5% 1-4 1.7% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 4.8% 2-1 7.2% 2-2 5.4%
2-3 2.7% 2-4 1.0% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 1.9% 3-1 2.8% 3-2 2.1%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.6% 4-1 0.8% 4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.5% under_0.5 7.5% over_1.5 75.3%
under_1.5 24.7% over_2.5 50.0% under_2.5 50.0%
over_3.5 28.1% under_3.5 71.9% over_4.5 13.4%
under_4.5 86.6% over_5.5 5.5% under_5.5 94.5%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 69.3% under_0.5 30.8% over_1.5 33.0%
under_1.5 67.0% over_2.5 11.6% under_2.5 88.4%
team_away
over_0.5 77.6% under_0.5 22.4% over_1.5 44.1%
under_1.5 55.9% over_2.5 19.0% under_2.5 81.0%
most
home 29.3% draw 26.8% away 43.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 3.9% away_+2.5 96.1% home_-1.5 12.2%
away_+1.5 87.8% home_-0.5 29.3% away_+0.5 70.7%
home_+0.5 56.1% away_-0.5 43.9% home_+1.5 78.0%
away_-1.5 22.0% home_+2.5 91.3% away_-2.5 8.7%
total_exact
exact_0 7.5% exact_1 17.2% exact_2 25.2%
exact_3 22.0% exact_4 14.7% exact_5 7.9%
exact_6 3.5% exact_7plus 2.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.1% draw 35.6% away 38.3%
total
over_0.5 79.0% under_0.5 21.0% over_1.5 46.3%
under_1.5 53.8% over_2.5 20.7% under_2.5 79.3%
btts
yes 28.8% no 71.2%
total_exact
exact_0 21.0% exact_1 32.8% exact_2 25.6%
exact_3 13.3% exact_4plus 7.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 24.0% draw 34.7% away 41.3%
total
over_0.5 79.8% under_0.5 20.2% over_1.5 47.6%
under_1.5 52.4% over_2.5 21.7% under_2.5 78.3%
btts
yes 29.3% no 70.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 17.4% H/D 5.6% H/A 3.2%
D/H 8.5% D/D 12.3% D/A 14.7%
A/H 1.7% A/D 4.9% A/A 31.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 63.5% under_7.5 36.5% over_8.5 52.3%
under_8.5 47.7% over_9.5 41.4% under_9.5 58.6%
over_10.5 31.6% under_10.5 68.4% over_11.5 23.3%
under_11.5 76.7% over_12.5 16.6% under_12.5 83.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 66.3% under_3.5 33.7% over_4.5 51.7%
under_4.5 48.3% over_5.5 38.2% under_5.5 61.8%
team_away
over_3.5 53.0% under_3.5 47.0% over_4.5 37.5%
under_4.5 62.5% over_5.5 24.9% under_5.5 75.1%
most
home 54.2% draw 10.3% away 35.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.0% away_+3.5 75.0% home_-1.5 43.7%
away_+1.5 56.3% home_-0.5 54.2% away_+0.5 45.8%
home_+0.5 64.5% away_-0.5 35.5% home_+1.5 73.8%
away_-1.5 26.2% home_+3.5 87.7% away_-3.5 12.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 64.5% under_22.5 35.5% over_24.5 52.7%
under_24.5 47.3% over_26.5 41.0% under_26.5 59.0%
over_28.5 30.2% under_28.5 69.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.7% under_10.5 27.3% over_12.5 57.2%
under_12.5 42.8% over_14.5 41.6% under_14.5 58.4%
team_away
over_10.5 55.8% under_10.5 44.2% over_12.5 38.6%
under_12.5 61.5% over_14.5 24.3% under_14.5 75.7%
most
home 60.1% draw 5.7% away 34.2%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.3% away_+4.5 63.7% home_-2.5 48.1%
away_+2.5 51.9% home_-0.5 60.1% away_+0.5 40.0%
home_+0.5 65.8% away_-0.5 34.2% home_+2.5 76.1%
away_-2.5 23.9% home_+4.5 84.4% away_-4.5 15.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 71.4% under_6.5 28.6% over_7.5 60.3%
under_7.5 39.7% over_8.5 49.0% under_8.5 51.0%
over_9.5 38.4% under_9.5 61.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 62.2% under_3.5 37.8% over_4.5 46.6%
under_4.5 53.4% over_5.5 32.7% under_5.5 67.3%
team_away
over_3.5 55.1% under_3.5 44.9% over_4.5 39.0%
under_4.5 61.0% over_5.5 25.8% under_5.5 74.2%
most
home 49.5% draw 11.6% away 39.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 27.7% away_+2.5 72.3% home_-0.5 49.5%
away_+0.5 50.5% home_+0.5 61.0% away_-0.5 39.0%
home_+2.5 80.5% away_-2.5 19.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 70.7% under_2.5 29.3% over_3.5 50.5%
under_3.5 49.5% over_4.5 32.0% under_4.5 68.0%
over_5.5 18.2% under_5.5 81.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 50.8% under_1.5 49.2% over_2.5 25.4%
under_2.5 74.6%
team_away
over_1.5 58.0% under_1.5 42.0% over_2.5 32.2%
under_2.5 67.9%
most
home 34.6% draw 20.9% away 44.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.0% away_+1.5 82.0% home_-0.5 34.6%
away_+0.5 65.4% home_+0.5 55.5% away_-0.5 44.5%
home_+1.5 74.5% away_-1.5 25.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 73.1% under_20.5 26.9% over_22.5 60.6%
under_22.5 39.4% over_24.5 47.3% under_24.5 52.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 72.1% under_9.5 28.0% over_11.5 53.5%
under_11.5 46.5% over_13.5 35.5% under_13.5 64.5%
team_away
over_9.5 72.3% under_9.5 27.7% over_11.5 53.8%
under_11.5 46.2% over_13.5 35.7% under_13.5 64.3%
most
home 46.5% draw 6.7% away 46.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.6% away_+3.5 72.4% home_-0.5 46.5%
away_+0.5 53.6% home_+2.5 66.1% away_-2.5 33.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 11.0% no 89.0%
home
yes 5.3% no 94.8%
away
yes 6.1% no 93.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Monza predictions · Sassuolo predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Serie AMonzaSassuoloTrack record