Sporting CP vs Arouca prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

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Sporting CP vs Arouca: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 18 Sep 2026

Primeira Liga
Sporting CP
Sat, 19 Sep 202620:30UK
Arouca

WLWDL

Model’s top convictions

76%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Draw or Arouca

58%

Sporting CP or draw

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Arouca42.3%

Win probability · fair 2.36

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely76.1%Fair 1.31
Draw or AroucaLikely69.0%Fair 1.45
Sporting CP or drawClose call57.7%Fair 1.73

Model read

Sporting CP versus Arouca on 19 September 2026 tilts towards Arouca in our numbers (42%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. Totals sit close to the fence: 51% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. Sporting CP are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

High risk

Over 9.5 corners44.0%@ 2.27
Arouca win42.3%@ 2.36
Over 10.5 corners34.8%@ 2.87
Medium risk

Both teams to score55.5%@ 1.80
Over 8.5 corners54.1%@ 1.85
Over 2.5 goals51.1%@ 1.96
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.7%@ 7.88
0-1 correct score9.2%@ 10.92
1-2 correct score9.0%@ 11.16

Model vs market

Sporting CP

31.0%

Draw

26.7%

Arouca

42.3%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely76.1%Fair 1.31
Over 2.5Close call51.1%Fair 1.96
BTTS · YesClose call55.5%Fair 1.80

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call54.1%Fair 1.85
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely44.0%Fair 2.27
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely34.8%Fair 2.87
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot26.7%Fair 3.75
Most cornersSporting CP54.9%Arouca34.6%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsClose call56.6%Fair 1.77
Over 24.5 shotsUnlikely44.4%Fair 2.25
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely33.1%Fair 3.02
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot23.3%Fair 4.29

Recent shot volume

Arouca10.2 taken15.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.1%2.551.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.576.1%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

AroucaWLWDL

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Sporting CPArouca
League position#20 of 24#7 of 24
Record W-D-L0-1-03-1-2
Current streakD1L1
Points per game·1.67
Record, home vs away·1-1-1
PPG, home vs away·1.33
Goals scored per game·1.33
Goals conceded per game·0.83
Scored, home vs away·0.33
Conceded, home vs away·0.67
1st half goals per game·0.67
2nd half goals per game·0.67
Corners won per game·3.0
Cards per game·2.5
Fouls per game·9.3
Red cards this season·1
Shots per game·10.2
Shots faced per game·15.7
Shots on target per game·3.7
Over 2.5 rate

·50.0%

BTTS rate

·33.3%

Clean sheets

·50.0%

Rates this season:Sporting CPArouca

League averages this season: 2.87 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 59% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Sporting CP win3.22
Draw3.75
Arouca win2.37
Both teams to score1.80

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.31
Over 2.5 goals1.96
Over 3.5 goals3.44
Sporting CP most3.22
Arouca most2.37

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.48
Over 8.5 corners1.78
Over 9.5 corners2.24
Over 10.5 corners2.93
Sporting CP most1.82
Arouca most2.88

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.15
Over 3.5 cards1.39
Over 4.5 cards1.85
Over 5.5 cards2.74
Sporting CP most2.83
Arouca most2.16

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.45
Over 7.5 SoT1.79
Over 8.5 SoT2.33
Over 9.5 SoT3.20
Sporting CP most1.75
Arouca most3.30

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.77
Over 24.5 shots2.25
Over 26.5 shots3.02
Over 28.5 shots4.29
Sporting CP most1.63
Arouca most3.03

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.25
Over 22.5 fouls1.45
Over 24.5 fouls1.78
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 56.6% Over 24.5 44.4% Over 26.5 33.1% Over 28.5 23.3%
Most: Sporting CP 61.2% Most: Arouca 33.0%
Sporting CP Over 13.2 44.2% Arouca Over 13.2 25.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 68.8% Over 7.5 55.9% Over 8.5 42.9% Over 9.5 31.3%
Most: Sporting CP 57.0% Most: Arouca 30.3%
Sporting CP Over 4.2 48.1% Arouca Over 4.2 28.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 86.6% Over 3.5 71.9% Over 4.5 54.0%
Most: Sporting CP 35.3% Most: Arouca 46.3%
Sporting CP Over 1.8 66.6% Arouca Over 1.8 73.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Sporting CP clean sheet 22.7%
Arouca clean sheet 28.9%
Sporting CP win to nil 15.5%
Arouca win to nil 21.7%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 31.0% draw 26.7% away 42.3%
double_chance
1X 57.7% 12 73.3% X2 69.0%
dnb
home 42.3% away 57.7%
btts
yes 55.5% no 44.5%
clean_sheet
home 22.7% away 29.0%
win_to_nil
home 15.5% away 21.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 17.7% home_by_2 8.9% home_by_3plus 4.4%
away_by_1 21.3% away_by_2 12.8% away_by_3plus 8.1%
correct_score
0-0 7.2% 0-1 9.2% 0-2 7.2%
0-3 3.6% 0-4 1.3% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 7.6% 1-1 12.7% 1-2 9.0%
1-3 4.4% 1-4 1.6% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 5.0% 2-1 7.5% 2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.7% 2-4 1.0% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 2.1% 3-1 3.1% 3-2 2.3%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.6% 4-1 1.0% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.8% under_0.5 7.2% over_1.5 76.1%
under_1.5 23.9% over_2.5 51.1% under_2.5 48.9%
over_3.5 29.0% under_3.5 71.0% over_4.5 14.0%
under_4.5 86.0% over_5.5 5.8% under_5.5 94.2%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 71.0% under_0.5 29.0% over_1.5 35.1%
under_1.5 64.9% over_2.5 12.9% under_2.5 87.1%
team_away
over_0.5 77.3% under_0.5 22.7% over_1.5 43.6%
under_1.5 56.4% over_2.5 18.7% under_2.5 81.3%
most
home 31.0% draw 26.7% away 42.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.4% away_+2.5 95.6% home_-1.5 13.3%
away_+1.5 86.7% home_-0.5 31.0% away_+0.5 69.0%
home_+0.5 57.7% away_-0.5 42.3% home_+1.5 79.1%
away_-1.5 21.0% home_+2.5 91.9% away_-2.5 8.1%
total_exact
exact_0 7.2% exact_1 16.7% exact_2 25.0%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 15.0% exact_5 8.2%
exact_6 3.7% exact_7plus 2.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 37.1% draw 39.8% away 23.1%
total
over_0.5 72.4% under_0.5 27.6% over_1.5 36.9%
under_1.5 63.1% over_2.5 14.0% under_2.5 86.0%
btts
yes 21.9% no 78.1%
total_exact
exact_0 27.6% exact_1 35.5% exact_2 22.9%
exact_3 9.8% exact_4plus 4.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 33.6% draw 36.6% away 29.8%
total
over_0.5 77.8% under_0.5 22.2% over_1.5 44.4%
under_1.5 55.6% over_2.5 19.3% under_2.5 80.7%
btts
yes 28.0% no 72.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 28.7% H/D 6.0% H/A 2.4%
D/H 13.4% D/D 14.6% D/A 11.9%
A/H 2.0% A/D 4.4% A/A 16.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 67.7% under_7.5 32.3% over_8.5 56.2%
under_8.5 43.8% over_9.5 44.7% under_9.5 55.3%
over_10.5 34.1% under_10.5 65.9% over_11.5 25.0%
under_11.5 75.0% over_12.5 17.6% under_12.5 82.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.6% under_3.5 30.4% over_4.5 54.9%
under_4.5 45.1% over_5.5 40.8% under_5.5 59.2%
team_away
over_3.5 55.4% under_3.5 44.6% over_4.5 39.3%
under_4.5 60.7% over_5.5 26.0% under_5.5 74.0%
most
home 55.1% draw 10.2% away 34.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.7% away_+3.5 74.3% home_-1.5 44.6%
away_+1.5 55.4% home_-0.5 55.1% away_+0.5 44.9%
home_+0.5 65.3% away_-0.5 34.8% home_+1.5 74.4%
away_-1.5 25.6% home_+3.5 88.1% away_-3.5 12.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 56.6% under_22.5 43.4% over_24.5 44.4%
under_24.5 55.6% over_26.5 33.1% under_26.5 66.9%
over_28.5 23.3% under_28.5 76.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 68.4% under_10.5 31.6% over_12.5 52.2%
under_12.5 47.8% over_14.5 36.7% under_14.5 63.3%
team_away
over_10.5 49.0% under_10.5 51.0% over_12.5 32.0%
under_12.5 68.0% over_14.5 19.0% under_14.5 81.0%
most
home 61.2% draw 5.8% away 33.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.7% away_+4.5 63.3% home_-2.5 48.9%
away_+2.5 51.1% home_-0.5 61.2% away_+0.5 38.8%
home_+0.5 67.0% away_-0.5 33.0% home_+2.5 77.4%
away_-2.5 22.6% home_+4.5 85.6% away_-4.5 14.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 68.8% under_6.5 31.2% over_7.5 55.9%
under_7.5 44.1% over_8.5 43.0% under_8.5 57.1%
over_9.5 31.3% under_9.5 68.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 65.5% under_3.5 34.5% over_4.5 48.1%
under_4.5 51.9% over_5.5 32.3% under_5.5 67.7%
team_away
over_3.5 46.6% under_3.5 53.4% over_4.5 28.9%
under_4.5 71.1% over_5.5 16.2% under_5.5 83.8%
most
home 57.1% draw 12.6% away 30.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 31.3% away_+2.5 68.7% home_-0.5 57.1%
away_+0.5 43.0% home_+0.5 69.7% away_-0.5 30.3%
home_+2.5 88.2% away_-2.5 11.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 86.6% under_2.5 13.4% over_3.5 72.0%
under_3.5 28.1% over_4.5 54.0% under_4.5 46.0%
over_5.5 36.5% under_5.5 63.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 66.6% under_1.5 33.4% over_2.5 40.1%
under_2.5 59.9%
team_away
over_1.5 73.3% under_1.5 26.7% over_2.5 48.2%
under_2.5 51.8%
most
home 35.3% draw 18.4% away 46.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.9% away_+1.5 80.1% home_-0.5 35.3%
away_+0.5 64.7% home_+0.5 53.7% away_-0.5 46.3%
home_+1.5 71.2% away_-1.5 28.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 79.9% under_20.5 20.2% over_22.5 68.8%
under_22.5 31.2% over_24.5 56.1% under_24.5 43.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 76.4% under_9.5 23.5% over_11.5 58.9%
under_11.5 41.1% over_13.5 40.8% under_13.5 59.2%
team_away
over_9.5 77.8% under_9.5 22.2% over_11.5 60.7%
under_11.5 39.3% over_13.5 42.6% under_13.5 57.4%
most
home 45.4% draw 6.6% away 48.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.2% away_+3.5 72.8% home_-0.5 45.4%
away_+0.5 54.6% home_+2.5 64.8% away_-2.5 35.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 29.9% no 70.1%
home
yes 15.8% no 84.2%
away
yes 16.7% no 83.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Sporting CP predictions · Arouca predictions · Primeira Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Primeira LigaSporting CPAroucaTrack record