Expect a tight one: the model splits Den Haag and Cambuur almost evenly, Den Haag marginally on top at 42%. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Den Haag at 54%. Caution noted. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 62% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 64%. The run in: Den Haag arrive W0 D1 L5, Cambuur W1 D1 L4. As a promoted side, Den Haag carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. History adds colour: across the last 4 meetings it is 1 wins for Den Haag, 2 draws and 1 for Cambuur at 3.5 goals per match. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.22)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners43.4%@ 2.30
Over 11.5 corners34.4%@ 2.91
Cambuur win33.8%@ 2.96
Medium risk
Over 2.5 goals61.8%@ 1.62
Draw or Cambuur58.2%@ 1.72
Over 9.5 corners53.1%@ 1.88
Random finds
1-1 correct score11.0%@ 9.12
2-1 correct score8.8%@ 11.35
1-2 correct score7.8%@ 12.76
Model vs market
Den Haag
41.7%-11.9%
Draw
24.4%+0.3%
Cambuur
33.8%+11.5%
ModelMarket
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.22)
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely83.3%Fair 1.20
Over 2.5Likely61.8%Fair 1.62
BTTS · YesLikely63.9%Fair 1.56
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.1%Fair 1.58
Over 9.5 cornersClose call53.1%Fair 1.88
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely43.4%Fair 2.30
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely34.4%Fair 2.91
Most cornersDen Haag55.4%Cambuur34.6%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely73.4%Fair 1.36
Over 24.5 shotsLikely63.1%Fair 1.58
Over 26.5 shotsClose call52.1%Fair 1.92
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely41.1%Fair 2.43
Recent shot volume
Den Haag10.8 taken17.5 faced
Cambuur12.5 taken15.5 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.583.3%2.561.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.561.8%
Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.22).
Form & head-to-head
Den HaagLLDLL
CambuurLLLDW
Last 4 meetings: Den Haag 1 · 2 draws · Cambuur 1 · 3.5 goals/game.
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
BookmakerOur fair
Den Haag win1.802.40
Draw3.904.10
Cambuur win4.202.96
Over 2.5 goals1.501.62
Under 2.5 goals2.502.62
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Den Haag win2.40
Draw4.10
Cambuur win2.96
Both teams to score1.57
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.20
Over 2.5 goals1.62
Over 3.5 goals2.53
Over 4.5 goals4.60
Den Haag most2.40
Cambuur most2.96
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.29
Over 8.5 corners1.49
Over 9.5 corners1.80
Over 10.5 corners2.27
Den Haag most1.80
Cambuur most2.88
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.79
Over 3.5 cards2.96
Over 4.5 cards5.69
Over 5.5 cards12.47
Den Haag most3.27
Cambuur most2.21
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.17
Over 7.5 SoT1.30
Over 8.5 SoT1.49
Over 9.5 SoT1.77
Den Haag most2.23
Cambuur most2.26
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.36
Over 24.5 shots1.58
Over 26.5 shots1.92
Over 28.5 shots2.43
Den Haag most1.74
Cambuur most2.69
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.70
Over 22.5 fouls2.29
Over 24.5 fouls3.35
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
73.4%
Over 24.5
63.1%
Over 26.5
52.1%
Over 28.5
41.1%
Most: Den Haag
57.5%
Most: Cambuur
37.1%
Den Haag Over 13.2
55.3%
Cambuur Over 13.2
40.6%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
85.3%
Over 7.5
77.1%
Over 8.5
67.2%
Over 9.5
56.6%
Most: Den Haag
44.7%
Most: Cambuur
44.3%
Den Haag Over 4.2
56.5%
Cambuur Over 4.2
56.1%
Cards
Over 2.5
55.8%
Over 3.5
33.7%
Over 4.5
17.6%
Most: Den Haag
30.6%
Most: Cambuur
45.3%
Den Haag Over 1.8
37.0%
Cambuur Over 1.8
48.3%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Den Haag clean sheet
22.1%
Cambuur clean sheet
18.4%
Den Haag win to nil
17.5%
Cambuur win to nil
13.8%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
41.8%
draw
24.4%
away
33.8%
double_chance
1X
66.2%
12
75.6%
X2
58.3%
dnb
home
55.2%
away
44.8%
btts
yes
63.9%
no
36.1%
clean_sheet
home
22.3%
away
18.5%
win_to_nil
home
17.6%
away
13.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1
19.9%
home_by_2
12.7%
home_by_3plus
9.2%
away_by_1
17.6%
away_by_2
10.1%
away_by_3plus
6.2%
correct_score
0-0
4.6%
0-1
5.7%
0-2
4.7%
0-3
2.3%
0-4
0.9%
0-5
0.3%
1-0
6.4%
1-1
11.0%
1-2
7.8%
1-3
3.9%
1-4
1.5%
1-5
0.4%
2-0
5.9%
2-1
8.8%
2-2
6.6%
2-3
3.3%
2-4
1.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-0
3.3%
3-1
5.0%
3-2
3.7%
3-3
1.9%
3-4
0.7%
3-5
0.2%
4-0
1.4%
4-1
2.1%
4-2
1.6%
4-3
0.8%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
0.5%
5-1
0.7%
5-2
0.5%
5-3
0.3%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
1.2%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
11.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
95.4%
under_0.5
4.6%
over_1.5
83.3%
under_1.5
16.7%
over_2.5
61.8%
under_2.5
38.2%
over_3.5
39.5%
under_3.5
60.5%
over_4.5
21.8%
under_4.5
78.3%
over_5.5
10.4%
under_5.5
89.6%
odd_even
odd
48.9%
even
51.1%
team_home
over_0.5
81.5%
under_0.5
18.5%
over_1.5
50.3%
under_1.5
49.7%
over_2.5
23.9%
under_2.5
76.1%
team_away
over_0.5
77.7%
under_0.5
22.3%
over_1.5
44.3%
under_1.5
55.7%
over_2.5
19.2%
under_2.5
80.8%
most
home
41.8%
draw
24.4%
away
33.8%
handicap
home_-2.5
9.2%
away_+2.5
90.8%
home_-1.5
21.9%
away_+1.5
78.1%
home_-0.5
41.8%
away_+0.5
58.3%
home_+0.5
66.2%
away_-0.5
33.8%
home_+1.5
83.8%
away_-1.5
16.2%
home_+2.5
93.8%
away_-2.5
6.2%
total_exact
exact_0
4.6%
exact_1
12.1%
exact_2
21.5%
exact_3
22.3%
exact_4
17.8%
exact_5
11.3%
exact_6
6.0%
exact_7plus
4.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
38.5%
draw
37.6%
away
23.9%
total
over_0.5
75.8%
under_0.5
24.3%
over_1.5
41.4%
under_1.5
58.6%
over_2.5
17.1%
under_2.5
82.9%
btts
yes
25.0%
no
75.0%
total_exact
exact_0
24.3%
exact_1
34.4%
exact_2
24.3%
exact_3
11.5%
exact_4plus
5.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
28.6%
draw
27.1%
away
44.3%
total
over_0.5
91.1%
under_0.5
8.9%
over_1.5
69.6%
under_1.5
30.4%
over_2.5
43.5%
under_2.5
56.5%
btts
yes
48.4%
no
51.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
25.0%
H/D
7.4%
H/A
6.2%
D/H
10.8%
D/D
10.2%
D/A
16.7%
A/H
2.1%
A/D
3.6%
A/A
18.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
77.6%
under_7.5
22.4%
over_8.5
67.1%
under_8.5
32.9%
over_9.5
55.5%
under_9.5
44.5%
over_10.5
44.0%
under_10.5
56.0%
over_11.5
33.3%
under_11.5
66.7%
over_12.5
24.1%
under_12.5
75.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
76.3%
under_3.5
23.8%
over_4.5
62.3%
under_4.5
37.7%
over_5.5
47.9%
under_5.5
52.1%
team_away
over_3.5
62.8%
under_3.5
37.2%
over_4.5
46.4%
under_4.5
53.6%
over_5.5
31.9%
under_5.5
68.2%
most
home
55.5%
draw
9.7%
away
34.7%
handicap
home_-3.5
27.0%
away_+3.5
73.0%
home_-1.5
45.5%
away_+1.5
54.5%
home_-0.5
55.5%
away_+0.5
44.5%
home_+0.5
65.3%
away_-0.5
34.7%
home_+1.5
74.1%
away_-1.5
25.9%
home_+3.5
87.5%
away_-3.5
12.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
73.4%
under_22.5
26.6%
over_24.5
63.1%
under_24.5
36.9%
over_26.5
52.1%
under_26.5
47.9%
over_28.5
41.1%
under_28.5
58.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
76.6%
under_10.5
23.4%
over_12.5
62.7%
under_12.5
37.3%
over_14.5
48.0%
under_14.5
52.0%
team_away
over_10.5
64.4%
under_10.5
35.6%
over_12.5
48.3%
under_12.5
51.7%
over_14.5
33.5%
under_14.5
66.5%
most
home
57.5%
draw
5.4%
away
37.1%
handicap
home_-4.5
35.3%
away_+4.5
64.7%
home_-2.5
46.3%
away_+2.5
53.7%
home_-0.5
57.5%
away_+0.5
42.5%
home_+0.5
62.9%
away_-0.5
37.1%
home_+2.5
72.9%
away_-2.5
27.1%
home_+4.5
81.4%
away_-4.5
18.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
85.3%
under_6.5
14.7%
over_7.5
77.1%
under_7.5
22.9%
over_8.5
67.2%
under_8.5
32.8%
over_9.5
56.6%
under_9.5
43.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
71.8%
under_3.5
28.2%
over_4.5
56.5%
under_4.5
43.5%
over_5.5
41.5%
under_5.5
58.5%
team_away
over_3.5
71.5%
under_3.5
28.5%
over_4.5
56.1%
under_4.5
43.9%
over_5.5
41.2%
under_5.5
58.9%
most
home
44.8%
draw
11.0%
away
44.3%
handicap
home_-2.5
24.9%
away_+2.5
75.1%
home_-0.5
44.8%
away_+0.5
55.3%
home_+0.5
55.7%
away_-0.5
44.3%
home_+2.5
75.5%
away_-2.5
24.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
55.8%
under_2.5
44.2%
over_3.5
33.7%
under_3.5
66.3%
over_4.5
17.6%
under_4.5
82.4%
over_5.5
8.0%
under_5.5
92.0%
odd_even
odd
49.8%
even
50.2%
team_home
over_1.5
37.0%
under_1.5
63.0%
over_2.5
14.4%
under_2.5
85.6%
team_away
over_1.5
48.3%
under_1.5
51.7%
over_2.5
22.7%
under_2.5
77.3%
most
home
30.6%
draw
24.1%
away
45.3%
handicap
home_-1.5
13.3%
away_+1.5
86.7%
home_-0.5
30.6%
away_+0.5
69.4%
home_+0.5
54.7%
away_-0.5
45.3%
home_+1.5
76.3%
away_-1.5
23.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
58.9%
under_20.5
41.1%
over_22.5
43.7%
under_22.5
56.3%
over_24.5
29.9%
under_24.5
70.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
61.3%
under_9.5
38.7%
over_11.5
39.7%
under_11.5
60.3%
over_13.5
22.0%
under_13.5
78.0%
team_away
over_9.5
64.8%
under_9.5
35.2%
over_11.5
43.5%
under_11.5
56.5%
over_13.5
25.1%
under_13.5
74.9%
most
home
43.5%
draw
7.7%
away
48.8%
handicap
home_-3.5
22.9%
away_+3.5
77.1%
home_-0.5
43.5%
away_+0.5
56.5%
home_+2.5
66.1%
away_-2.5
33.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
7.1%
no
92.9%
home
yes
5.3%
no
94.7%
away
yes
2.0%
no
98.0%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Eredivisie
Den Haag
Cambuur