Süper Lig
Goztep vs 
Rizespor Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 56.3%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 68.0% for over 22.5 to 33.0% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.3%. On the shot count, Goztep are the model’s pick to have more shots at 65.3%, with a level count at 5.5%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 68.0% | 32.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| 26.5 shots | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 33.0% | 67.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
77.8%
63.2%
47.5%
54.6%
37.0%
22.7%
Shot handicap
| Goztep line | Goztep | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| -2.5 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| -0.5 | 65.3% | 34.7% |
| +0.5 | 70.8% | 29.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 72.5% | 27.5% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 36.4% | 63.6% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
15.6Goztep shots per game19.6Goztep shots faced per game16.4Rizespor shots per game12.8Rizespor shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Goztep.
In-depth analysis
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
56.3%Over 24.5 shots63.2%Goztep over 12.5 shots37.0%Rizespor over 12.5 shots60.5%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Goztep over 12.5 shots sits at 63.2% and Rizespor at 37.0%. This season Goztep have averaged 15.6 shots a game and Rizespor 16.4.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Goztep vs Rizespor?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 56.3% for Goztep vs Rizespor.
Which team will have more shots in Goztep vs Rizespor?
The model rates Goztep to take more shots at 65.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
