Trabzonspor versus Galatasaray in the Süper Lig on 19 September 2026 is finely balanced. Galatasaray edge it at 42%, but the gap to the field is slim. The numbers that frame it: • Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Galatasaray higher (46%) than our model does. • The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 60% with both teams to score at 63%. • Recent form reads W2 D1 L3 for Trabzonspor against W4 D1 L1 for Galatasaray. • The recent series reads 1 wins for Trabzonspor, 1 draws and 3 for Galatasaray over 5 games, 3.6 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.030 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
High risk
Over 9.5 corners44.9%@ 2.23
Galatasaray win41.9%@ 2.39
Over 10.5 corners34.9%@ 2.87
Medium risk
Over 2.5 goals60.1%@ 1.66
Trabzonspor or draw58.0%@ 1.72
Over 8.5 corners55.8%@ 1.79
Random finds
1-1 correct score11.3%@ 8.87
1-2 correct score8.9%@ 11.25
2-1 correct score7.8%@ 12.80
Model vs market
Trabzonspor
33.3%+3.0%
Draw
24.7%+0.5%
Galatasaray
41.9%-3.6%
ModelMarket
value_gap +0.030 <= 0.03
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely82.2%Fair 1.22
Over 2.5Likely60.1%Fair 1.66
BTTS · YesLikely62.6%Fair 1.60
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call55.8%Fair 1.79
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely44.9%Fair 2.23
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely34.9%Fair 2.87
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot26.2%Fair 3.82
Most cornersTrabzonspor50.7%Galatasaray38.1%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely69.0%Fair 1.45
Over 24.5 shotsClose call57.4%Fair 1.74
Over 26.5 shotsClose call45.4%Fair 2.20
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely34.1%Fair 2.93
Recent shot volume
Trabzonspor14.8 taken12.7 faced
Galatasaray22.5 taken9.7 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
BookmakerOur fair
Trabzonspor win3.003.00
Draw3.704.05
Galatasaray win2.052.39
Over 2.5 goals1.441.66
Under 2.5 goals2.702.51
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Trabzonspor win3.00
Draw4.04
Galatasaray win2.38
Both teams to score1.60
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.22
Over 2.5 goals1.66
Over 3.5 goals2.65
Over 4.5 goals4.90
Trabzonspor most3.00
Galatasaray most2.38
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.43
Over 8.5 corners1.73
Over 9.5 corners2.19
Over 10.5 corners2.93
Trabzonspor most1.97
Galatasaray most2.62
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.24
Over 3.5 cards1.58
Over 4.5 cards2.28
Over 5.5 cards3.68
Trabzonspor most3.11
Galatasaray most2.06
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.30
Over 7.5 SoT1.52
Over 8.5 SoT1.86
Over 9.5 SoT2.38
Trabzonspor most1.83
Galatasaray most2.98
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.45
Over 24.5 shots1.74
Over 26.5 shots2.20
Over 28.5 shots2.93
Trabzonspor most1.66
Galatasaray most2.94
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.26
Over 22.5 fouls1.51
Over 24.5 fouls1.95
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
69.0%
Over 24.5
57.4%
Over 26.5
45.4%
Over 28.5
34.1%
Most: Trabzonspor
60.3%
Most: Galatasaray
34.0%
Trabzonspor Over 13.2
52.7%
Galatasaray Over 13.2
33.7%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
76.9%
Over 7.5
65.8%
Over 8.5
53.8%
Over 9.5
42.0%
Most: Trabzonspor
54.5%
Most: Galatasaray
33.6%
Trabzonspor Over 4.2
53.7%
Galatasaray Over 4.2
38.5%
Cards
Over 2.5
80.9%
Over 3.5
63.2%
Over 4.5
43.9%
Most: Trabzonspor
32.1%
Most: Galatasaray
48.5%
Trabzonspor Over 1.8
58.1%
Galatasaray Over 1.8
69.1%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Trabzonspor clean sheet
19.0%
Galatasaray clean sheet
23.2%
Trabzonspor win to nil
14.0%
Galatasaray win to nil
18.2%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
33.3%
draw
24.8%
away
41.9%
double_chance
1X
58.1%
12
75.3%
X2
66.7%
dnb
home
44.3%
away
55.7%
btts
yes
62.6%
no
37.4%
clean_sheet
home
19.1%
away
23.3%
win_to_nil
home
14.1%
away
18.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1
17.6%
home_by_2
9.9%
home_by_3plus
5.8%
away_by_1
20.1%
away_by_2
12.8%
away_by_3plus
9.1%
correct_score
0-0
5.0%
0-1
6.8%
0-2
6.1%
0-3
3.4%
0-4
1.4%
0-5
0.5%
1-0
5.9%
1-1
11.3%
1-2
8.9%
1-3
4.9%
1-4
2.0%
1-5
0.7%
2-0
4.7%
2-1
7.8%
2-2
6.5%
2-3
3.6%
2-4
1.5%
2-5
0.5%
3-0
2.3%
3-1
3.8%
3-2
3.1%
3-3
1.7%
3-4
0.7%
3-5
0.2%
4-0
0.8%
4-1
1.4%
4-2
1.1%
4-3
0.6%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
5-1
0.4%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
1.1%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
11.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
95.0%
under_0.5
5.0%
over_1.5
82.2%
under_1.5
17.8%
over_2.5
60.1%
under_2.5
39.9%
over_3.5
37.8%
under_3.5
62.2%
over_4.5
20.4%
under_4.5
79.6%
over_5.5
9.6%
under_5.5
90.4%
odd_even
odd
48.8%
even
51.2%
team_home
over_0.5
76.7%
under_0.5
23.3%
over_1.5
42.7%
under_1.5
57.3%
over_2.5
18.0%
under_2.5
82.0%
team_away
over_0.5
80.9%
under_0.5
19.1%
over_1.5
49.3%
under_1.5
50.7%
over_2.5
23.1%
under_2.5
76.9%
most
home
33.3%
draw
24.8%
away
41.9%
handicap
home_-2.5
5.8%
away_+2.5
94.2%
home_-1.5
15.7%
away_+1.5
84.3%
home_-0.5
33.3%
away_+0.5
66.7%
home_+0.5
58.1%
away_-0.5
41.9%
home_+1.5
78.2%
away_-1.5
21.8%
home_+2.5
90.9%
away_-2.5
9.1%
total_exact
exact_0
5.0%
exact_1
12.8%
exact_2
22.1%
exact_3
22.4%
exact_4
17.4%
exact_5
10.8%
exact_6
5.6%
exact_7plus
4.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
20.1%
draw
38.9%
away
41.0%
total
over_0.5
73.0%
under_0.5
27.0%
over_1.5
37.7%
under_1.5
62.3%
over_2.5
14.5%
under_2.5
85.5%
btts
yes
21.6%
no
78.4%
total_exact
exact_0
27.0%
exact_1
35.3%
exact_2
23.2%
exact_3
10.1%
exact_4plus
4.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
36.9%
draw
33.2%
away
30.0%
total
over_0.5
82.9%
under_0.5
17.1%
over_1.5
52.8%
under_1.5
47.2%
over_2.5
26.1%
under_2.5
73.9%
btts
yes
34.3%
no
65.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
15.0%
H/D
3.5%
H/A
1.6%
D/H
14.4%
D/D
12.9%
D/A
11.7%
A/H
4.1%
A/D
7.4%
A/A
29.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
70.0%
under_7.5
30.0%
over_8.5
57.9%
under_8.5
42.1%
over_9.5
45.6%
under_9.5
54.4%
over_10.5
34.2%
under_10.5
65.9%
over_11.5
24.3%
under_11.5
75.7%
over_12.5
16.5%
under_12.5
83.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
69.3%
under_3.5
30.7%
over_4.5
53.3%
under_4.5
46.7%
over_5.5
38.1%
under_5.5
61.9%
team_away
over_3.5
60.7%
under_3.5
39.3%
over_4.5
43.7%
under_4.5
56.4%
over_5.5
28.9%
under_5.5
71.1%
most
home
50.8%
draw
11.0%
away
38.2%
handicap
home_-3.5
21.0%
away_+3.5
79.0%
home_-1.5
39.9%
away_+1.5
60.1%
home_-0.5
50.8%
away_+0.5
49.2%
home_+0.5
61.8%
away_-0.5
38.2%
home_+1.5
71.9%
away_-1.5
28.1%
home_+3.5
87.1%
away_-3.5
12.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
69.0%
under_22.5
31.0%
over_24.5
57.4%
under_24.5
42.6%
over_26.5
45.4%
under_26.5
54.6%
over_28.5
34.1%
under_28.5
65.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
75.8%
under_10.5
24.2%
over_12.5
60.7%
under_12.5
39.3%
over_14.5
44.8%
under_14.5
55.2%
team_away
over_10.5
59.3%
under_10.5
40.8%
over_12.5
41.7%
under_12.5
58.3%
over_14.5
26.6%
under_14.5
73.4%
most
home
60.3%
draw
5.7%
away
34.0%
handicap
home_-4.5
36.5%
away_+4.5
63.5%
home_-2.5
48.3%
away_+2.5
51.7%
home_-0.5
60.3%
away_+0.5
39.7%
home_+0.5
66.0%
away_-0.5
34.0%
home_+2.5
76.3%
away_-2.5
23.7%
home_+4.5
84.6%
away_-4.5
15.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
76.9%
under_6.5
23.1%
over_7.5
65.8%
under_7.5
34.2%
over_8.5
53.8%
under_8.5
46.2%
over_9.5
42.0%
under_9.5
58.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
70.0%
under_3.5
30.0%
over_4.5
53.7%
under_4.5
46.3%
over_5.5
38.1%
under_5.5
61.9%
team_away
over_3.5
56.2%
under_3.5
43.8%
over_4.5
38.5%
under_4.5
61.6%
over_5.5
24.0%
under_5.5
76.0%
most
home
54.5%
draw
11.9%
away
33.6%
handicap
home_-2.5
30.9%
away_+2.5
69.1%
home_-0.5
54.5%
away_+0.5
45.5%
home_+0.5
66.4%
away_-0.5
33.6%
home_+2.5
85.1%
away_-2.5
14.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
80.9%
under_2.5
19.1%
over_3.5
63.2%
under_3.5
36.8%
over_4.5
44.0%
under_4.5
56.1%
over_5.5
27.2%
under_5.5
72.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
58.1%
under_1.5
41.9%
over_2.5
31.1%
under_2.5
68.9%
team_away
over_1.5
69.1%
under_1.5
30.9%
over_2.5
43.0%
under_2.5
57.0%
most
home
32.1%
draw
19.4%
away
48.5%
handicap
home_-1.5
16.8%
away_+1.5
83.2%
home_-0.5
32.1%
away_+0.5
67.9%
home_+0.5
51.5%
away_-0.5
48.5%
home_+1.5
70.3%
away_-1.5
29.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
79.2%
under_20.5
20.8%
over_22.5
66.2%
under_22.5
33.8%
over_24.5
51.4%
under_24.5
48.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
71.9%
under_9.5
28.1%
over_11.5
50.4%
under_11.5
49.6%
over_13.5
30.0%
under_13.5
70.0%
team_away
over_9.5
82.6%
under_9.5
17.4%
over_11.5
64.8%
under_11.5
35.2%
over_13.5
44.3%
under_13.5
55.7%
most
home
36.0%
draw
7.3%
away
56.7%
handicap
home_-3.5
17.7%
away_+3.5
82.3%
home_-0.5
36.0%
away_+0.5
64.0%
home_+2.5
58.4%
away_-2.5
41.6%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
23.6%
no
76.4%
home
yes
11.1%
no
88.9%
away
yes
14.0%
no
86.0%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Süper Lig
Trabzonspor
Galatasaray