Süper Lig
Goztep vs 
Rizespor Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 54.7%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Goztep have averaged 1.8 scored and 2.6 conceded, Rizespor 1.0 and 0.8 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 54.7% for over 2.5 and 78.6% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 5.4 goals a game. Goztep have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Rizespor in 1 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 93.8% | 6.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 78.6% | 21.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| 3.5 goals | 32.4% | 67.6% |
| 4.5 goals | 16.4% | 83.7% |
| 5.5 goals | 7.1% | 92.9% |
Team goal lines
80.5%
48.6%
22.5%
71.0%
35.1%
12.9%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 66.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 11.7% | 88.3% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 81.3% | 18.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 23.7% | 76.4% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Goztep goals scored per game2.6Goztep goals conceded per game80.0%Goztep Over 2.5 rate0.6Goztep 1st-half goals per game1.0Rizespor goals scored per game0.8Rizespor goals conceded per game20.0%Rizespor Over 2.5 rate0.6Rizespor 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
57.7%Both Teams to Score54.7%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 54.7% for three or more goals and 78.6% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Goztep favoured at 46.1%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Goztep to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Goztep 3 · 0 draws · Rizespor 2 · 5.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Goztep vs Rizespor?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 54.7% for Goztep vs Rizespor.
Will there be a first-half goal in Goztep vs Rizespor?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 69.4%.
How often have Goztep gone over 2.5 recently?
Goztep have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Rizespor in 1 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 18,270 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
