Süper Lig
Goztep vs 
Rizespor Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Home or Away at 74.5%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Goztep are favoured at 46.1%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 5.4 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Goztep by 1 | 21.8% |
| Goztep by 2 | 14.1% |
| Goztep by 3+ | 10.2% |
| Rizespor by 1 | 16.4% |
| Rizespor by 2 | 8.1% |
| Rizespor by 3+ | 4.0% |
| Draw | 25.5% |
Goal handicap
| Goztep line | Goztep | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24.3% | 75.7% |
| -0.5 | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| +0.5 | 71.6% | 28.4% |
| +1.5 | 87.9% | 12.1% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Goztep goals scored per game2.6Goztep goals conceded per game1.0Rizespor goals scored per game0.8Rizespor goals conceded per gameTwo of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is Goztep or Rizespor on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
57.7%Both Teams to Score54.7%Over 2.5 goalsOn the result, Goztep are favoured at 46.1%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Goztep 3 · 0 draws · Rizespor 2 · 5.4 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Goztep vs Rizespor?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Goztep vs Rizespor at 74.5%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Goztep vs Rizespor?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Goztep at 61.9% and Rizespor at 38.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 40,105 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
