Little between these two in the data. Kocaelispor at 40% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 19 September 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Kocaelispor at 44%. Caution noted. 2) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 35% with both teams to score at 42%. 3) Form guide over the last six: Kocaelispor W3 D0 L3, Gaziantep W2 D2 L2. Head to head, the last 2 meetings gave 1 wins for Kocaelispor, 0 draws and 1 for Gaziantep, averaging 2.5 goals a game. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.017 <= 0.03).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 9.5 corners44.7%@ 2.24
Over 10.5 corners34.7%@ 2.88
Over 2.5 goals34.6%@ 2.89
Medium risk
Draw or Gaziantep59.7%@ 1.68
Not both teams to score57.9%@ 1.73
Over 8.5 corners55.5%@ 1.80
Random finds
1-1 correct score14.0%@ 7.14
1-0 correct score13.7%@ 7.28
0-0 correct score13.1%@ 7.62
Model vs market
Kocaelispor
40.3%-3.3%
Draw
31.2%+1.6%
Gaziantep
28.5%+1.7%
ModelMarket
value_gap +0.017 <= 0.03
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely62.3%Fair 1.61
Over 2.5Unlikely34.6%Fair 2.89
BTTS · YesUnlikely42.1%Fair 2.38
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call55.5%Fair 1.80
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely44.7%Fair 2.24
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely34.7%Fair 2.88
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot26.0%Fair 3.85
Most cornersKocaelispor56.6%Gaziantep32.6%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely65.4%Fair 1.53
Over 24.5 shotsClose call53.4%Fair 1.87
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely41.4%Fair 2.41
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely30.4%Fair 3.29
Recent shot volume
Kocaelispor10.3 taken17.2 faced
Gaziantep12.2 taken12.7 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
BookmakerOur fair
Kocaelispor win2.152.48
Draw3.103.21
Gaziantep win3.403.51
Over 2.5 goals2.252.89
Under 2.5 goals1.621.53
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Kocaelispor win2.48
Draw3.21
Gaziantep win3.51
Both teams to score2.38
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.15
Over 1.5 goals1.61
Over 2.5 goals2.89
Over 3.5 goals6.32
Kocaelispor most2.48
Gaziantep most3.51
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.43
Over 8.5 corners1.73
Over 9.5 corners2.21
Over 10.5 corners2.95
Kocaelispor most1.76
Gaziantep most3.06
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.19
Over 3.5 cards1.48
Over 4.5 cards2.04
Over 5.5 cards3.15
Kocaelispor most2.71
Gaziantep most2.27
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.48
Over 7.5 SoT1.83
Over 8.5 SoT2.38
Over 9.5 SoT3.27
Kocaelispor most1.79
Gaziantep most3.17
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.53
Over 24.5 shots1.87
Over 26.5 shots2.41
Over 28.5 shots3.29
Kocaelispor most1.56
Gaziantep most3.30
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.08
Over 22.5 fouls1.17
Over 24.5 fouls1.33
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
65.4%
Over 24.5
53.4%
Over 26.5
41.4%
Over 28.5
30.4%
Most: Kocaelispor
64.1%
Most: Gaziantep
30.3%
Kocaelispor Over 13.2
52.5%
Gaziantep Over 13.2
28.3%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
67.4%
Over 7.5
54.6%
Over 8.5
41.9%
Over 9.5
30.6%
Most: Kocaelispor
55.8%
Most: Gaziantep
31.6%
Kocaelispor Over 4.2
46.5%
Gaziantep Over 4.2
29.2%
Cards
Over 2.5
83.9%
Over 3.5
67.7%
Over 4.5
49.0%
Most: Kocaelispor
36.9%
Most: Gaziantep
44.0%
Kocaelispor Over 1.8
64.8%
Gaziantep Over 1.8
69.3%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Kocaelispor clean sheet
39.6%
Gaziantep clean sheet
31.4%
Kocaelispor win to nil
26.4%
Gaziantep win to nil
18.3%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
40.3%
draw
31.2%
away
28.5%
double_chance
1X
71.5%
12
68.8%
X2
59.7%
dnb
home
58.6%
away
41.4%
btts
yes
42.1%
no
57.9%
clean_sheet
home
39.6%
away
31.5%
win_to_nil
home
26.5%
away
18.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1
23.0%
home_by_2
11.7%
home_by_3plus
5.6%
away_by_1
18.3%
away_by_2
7.5%
away_by_3plus
2.7%
correct_score
0-0
13.1%
0-1
10.9%
0-2
5.3%
0-3
1.7%
0-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-0
13.7%
1-1
14.0%
1-2
6.2%
1-3
1.9%
1-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-0
8.3%
2-1
7.7%
2-2
3.6%
2-3
1.1%
2-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-0
3.2%
3-1
3.0%
3-2
1.4%
3-3
0.4%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
4-0
0.9%
4-1
0.9%
4-2
0.4%
4-3
0.1%
4-4
0.0%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.2%
5-1
0.2%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.0%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.2%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
14.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
86.9%
under_0.5
13.1%
over_1.5
62.3%
under_1.5
37.7%
over_2.5
34.6%
under_2.5
65.4%
over_3.5
15.8%
under_3.5
84.2%
over_4.5
6.1%
under_4.5
93.9%
over_5.5
2.0%
under_5.5
98.0%
odd_even
odd
47.9%
even
52.1%
team_home
over_0.5
68.5%
under_0.5
31.5%
over_1.5
32.2%
under_1.5
67.8%
over_2.5
11.1%
under_2.5
88.9%
team_away
over_0.5
60.4%
under_0.5
39.6%
over_1.5
23.7%
under_1.5
76.3%
over_2.5
6.7%
under_2.5
93.3%
most
home
40.3%
draw
31.2%
away
28.5%
handicap
home_-2.5
5.6%
away_+2.5
94.4%
home_-1.5
17.4%
away_+1.5
82.6%
home_-0.5
40.3%
away_+0.5
59.7%
home_+0.5
71.5%
away_-0.5
28.5%
home_+1.5
89.8%
away_-1.5
10.2%
home_+2.5
97.3%
away_-2.5
2.7%
total_exact
exact_0
13.1%
exact_1
24.6%
exact_2
27.7%
exact_3
18.8%
exact_4
9.8%
exact_5
4.1%
exact_6
1.4%
exact_7plus
0.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
28.4%
draw
49.1%
away
22.6%
total
over_0.5
59.6%
under_0.5
40.4%
over_1.5
23.0%
under_1.5
77.0%
over_2.5
6.4%
under_2.5
93.6%
btts
yes
13.2%
no
86.9%
total_exact
exact_0
40.4%
exact_1
36.6%
exact_2
16.6%
exact_3
5.0%
exact_4plus
1.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
32.3%
draw
43.4%
away
24.3%
total
over_0.5
67.6%
under_0.5
32.4%
over_1.5
31.1%
under_1.5
68.9%
over_2.5
10.5%
under_2.5
89.5%
btts
yes
18.3%
no
81.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
22.7%
H/D
4.4%
H/A
1.2%
D/H
15.9%
D/D
21.3%
D/A
11.9%
A/H
1.7%
A/D
4.6%
A/A
16.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
69.7%
under_7.5
30.3%
over_8.5
57.7%
under_8.5
42.4%
over_9.5
45.3%
under_9.5
54.7%
over_10.5
33.9%
under_10.5
66.1%
over_11.5
24.1%
under_11.5
75.9%
over_12.5
16.3%
under_12.5
83.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
72.7%
under_3.5
27.4%
over_4.5
57.3%
under_4.5
42.7%
over_5.5
42.1%
under_5.5
57.9%
team_away
over_3.5
56.1%
under_3.5
43.9%
over_4.5
38.8%
under_4.5
61.2%
over_5.5
24.7%
under_5.5
75.4%
most
home
56.7%
draw
10.6%
away
32.7%
handicap
home_-3.5
25.5%
away_+3.5
74.6%
home_-1.5
45.6%
away_+1.5
54.4%
home_-0.5
56.7%
away_+0.5
43.3%
home_+0.5
67.3%
away_-0.5
32.7%
home_+1.5
76.7%
away_-1.5
23.3%
home_+3.5
90.0%
away_-3.5
10.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
65.4%
under_22.5
34.6%
over_24.5
53.4%
under_24.5
46.6%
over_26.5
41.4%
under_26.5
58.6%
over_28.5
30.4%
under_28.5
69.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
75.6%
under_10.5
24.3%
over_12.5
60.5%
under_12.5
39.5%
over_14.5
44.6%
under_14.5
55.4%
team_away
over_10.5
53.6%
under_10.5
46.4%
over_12.5
35.9%
under_12.5
64.1%
over_14.5
21.8%
under_14.5
78.2%
most
home
64.1%
draw
5.6%
away
30.3%
handicap
home_-4.5
39.9%
away_+4.5
60.1%
home_-2.5
52.1%
away_+2.5
47.9%
home_-0.5
64.1%
away_+0.5
35.9%
home_+0.5
69.7%
away_-0.5
30.3%
home_+2.5
79.5%
away_-2.5
20.5%
home_+4.5
87.1%
away_-4.5
12.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
67.4%
under_6.5
32.6%
over_7.5
54.6%
under_7.5
45.4%
over_8.5
41.9%
under_8.5
58.1%
over_9.5
30.6%
under_9.5
69.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
63.7%
under_3.5
36.3%
over_4.5
46.5%
under_4.5
53.5%
over_5.5
31.2%
under_5.5
68.8%
team_away
over_3.5
46.5%
under_3.5
53.5%
over_4.5
29.2%
under_4.5
70.8%
over_5.5
16.6%
under_5.5
83.4%
most
home
55.8%
draw
12.6%
away
31.6%
handicap
home_-2.5
30.5%
away_+2.5
69.5%
home_-0.5
55.8%
away_+0.5
44.2%
home_+0.5
68.4%
away_-0.5
31.6%
home_+2.5
87.3%
away_-2.5
12.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
83.9%
under_2.5
16.1%
over_3.5
67.7%
under_3.5
32.3%
over_4.5
49.0%
under_4.5
51.0%
over_5.5
31.8%
under_5.5
68.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
64.8%
under_1.5
35.2%
over_2.5
38.0%
under_2.5
62.0%
team_away
over_1.5
69.3%
under_1.5
30.7%
over_2.5
43.2%
under_2.5
56.8%
most
home
36.9%
draw
19.1%
away
44.0%
handicap
home_-1.5
20.8%
away_+1.5
79.3%
home_-0.5
36.9%
away_+0.5
63.1%
home_+0.5
56.0%
away_-0.5
44.0%
home_+1.5
73.6%
away_-1.5
26.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
92.5%
under_20.5
7.5%
over_22.5
85.4%
under_22.5
14.6%
over_24.5
75.1%
under_24.5
24.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
90.9%
under_9.5
9.1%
over_11.5
78.5%
under_11.5
21.5%
over_13.5
60.9%
under_13.5
39.1%
team_away
over_9.5
85.5%
under_9.5
14.5%
over_11.5
69.3%
under_11.5
30.7%
over_13.5
49.4%
under_13.5
50.6%
most
home
54.7%
draw
6.9%
away
38.4%
handicap
home_-3.5
33.9%
away_+3.5
66.1%
home_-0.5
54.7%
away_+0.5
45.3%
home_+2.5
74.3%
away_-2.5
25.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
16.1%
no
84.0%
home
yes
5.0%
no
95.0%
away
yes
11.6%
no
88.4%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Süper Lig
Kocaelispor
Gaziantep