Expect a tight one: the model splits Erzurumspor and Samsunspor almost evenly, Samsunspor marginally on top at 39%. The numbers that frame it: • Our number sits above the market's 36% for Samsunspor. The gap itself is information. • No strong lean on goals (52% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Form guide over the last six: Erzurumspor W1 D1 L3, Samsunspor W2 D1 L3. • Erzurumspor are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (conservative EV -0.040 <= 0).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
High risk
Over 9.5 corners46.1%@ 2.17
Samsunspor win38.9%@ 2.57
Over 10.5 corners36.0%@ 2.78
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners56.9%@ 1.76
Both teams to score56.4%@ 1.77
Over 2.5 goals51.9%@ 1.93
Random finds
1-1 correct score12.7%@ 7.89
1-2 correct score8.6%@ 11.64
0-1 correct score8.5%@ 11.78
Model vs market
Erzurumspor
34.4%-1.4%
Draw
26.7%-1.6%
Samsunspor
38.9%+3.1%
ModelMarket
conservative EV -0.040 <= 0
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely76.6%Fair 1.31
Over 2.5Close call51.9%Fair 1.93
BTTS · YesClose call56.4%Fair 1.77
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call56.9%Fair 1.76
Over 9.5 cornersClose call46.1%Fair 2.17
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely36.0%Fair 2.78
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot27.2%Fair 3.68
Most cornersErzurumspor53.8%Samsunspor35.3%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely66.9%Fair 1.50
Over 24.5 shotsClose call55.0%Fair 1.82
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely43.0%Fair 2.33
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely31.9%Fair 3.14
Recent shot volume
Erzurumspor9.2 taken14.8 faced
Samsunspor14.2 taken17.7 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.576.6%2.551.9%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.576.6%
Discipline: Fairly priced. Conservative EV -0.040 <= 0.
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
BookmakerOur fair
Erzurumspor win2.572.91
Draw3.203.75
Samsunspor win2.572.57
Over 2.5 goals2.051.93
Under 2.5 goals1.752.08
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Erzurumspor win2.90
Draw3.74
Samsunspor win2.57
Both teams to score1.77
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.30
Over 2.5 goals1.93
Over 3.5 goals3.36
Erzurumspor most2.90
Samsunspor most2.57
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.41
Over 8.5 corners1.69
Over 9.5 corners2.13
Over 10.5 corners2.82
Erzurumspor most1.85
Samsunspor most2.83
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.30
Over 3.5 cards1.73
Over 4.5 cards2.62
Over 5.5 cards4.47
Erzurumspor most2.93
Samsunspor most2.20
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.41
Over 7.5 SoT1.71
Over 8.5 SoT2.18
Over 9.5 SoT2.92
Erzurumspor most1.73
Samsunspor most3.33
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.50
Over 24.5 shots1.82
Over 26.5 shots2.33
Over 28.5 shots3.14
Erzurumspor most1.58
Samsunspor most3.23
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.19
Over 22.5 fouls1.37
Over 24.5 fouls1.69
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
66.9%
Over 24.5
55.0%
Over 26.5
43.0%
Over 28.5
31.9%
Most: Erzurumspor
63.4%
Most: Samsunspor
31.0%
Erzurumspor Over 13.2
53.1%
Samsunspor Over 13.2
29.9%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
70.8%
Over 7.5
58.5%
Over 8.5
45.9%
Over 9.5
34.3%
Most: Erzurumspor
57.8%
Most: Samsunspor
30.1%
Erzurumspor Over 4.2
50.5%
Samsunspor Over 4.2
30.4%
Cards
Over 2.5
77.0%
Over 3.5
57.7%
Over 4.5
38.2%
Most: Erzurumspor
34.1%
Most: Samsunspor
45.5%
Erzurumspor Over 1.8
56.0%
Samsunspor Over 1.8
64.0%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Erzurumspor clean sheet
24.0%
Samsunspor clean sheet
26.4%
Erzurumspor win to nil
17.0%
Samsunspor win to nil
19.4%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
34.4%
draw
26.7%
away
38.9%
double_chance
1X
61.1%
12
73.3%
X2
65.6%
dnb
home
47.0%
away
53.0%
btts
yes
56.4%
no
43.6%
clean_sheet
home
24.1%
away
26.5%
win_to_nil
home
17.1%
away
19.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1
18.8%
home_by_2
10.1%
home_by_3plus
5.5%
away_by_1
20.3%
away_by_2
11.7%
away_by_3plus
7.0%
correct_score
0-0
7.0%
0-1
8.5%
0-2
6.5%
0-3
3.1%
0-4
1.1%
0-5
0.3%
1-0
7.9%
1-1
12.7%
1-2
8.6%
1-3
4.1%
1-4
1.5%
1-5
0.4%
2-0
5.6%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
5.7%
2-3
2.7%
2-4
1.0%
2-5
0.3%
3-0
2.5%
3-1
3.5%
3-2
2.5%
3-3
1.2%
3-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
0.8%
4-1
1.2%
4-2
0.8%
4-3
0.4%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.2%
5-1
0.3%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.6%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
12.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
93.0%
under_0.5
7.0%
over_1.5
76.6%
under_1.5
23.4%
over_2.5
51.9%
under_2.5
48.1%
over_3.5
29.7%
under_3.5
70.3%
over_4.5
14.5%
under_4.5
85.5%
over_5.5
6.1%
under_5.5
93.9%
odd_even
odd
48.6%
even
51.4%
team_home
over_0.5
73.5%
under_0.5
26.5%
over_1.5
38.3%
under_1.5
61.7%
over_2.5
14.9%
under_2.5
85.1%
team_away
over_0.5
75.9%
under_0.5
24.1%
over_1.5
41.7%
under_1.5
58.4%
over_2.5
17.2%
under_2.5
82.8%
most
home
34.4%
draw
26.7%
away
38.9%
handicap
home_-2.5
5.5%
away_+2.5
94.5%
home_-1.5
15.6%
away_+1.5
84.4%
home_-0.5
34.4%
away_+0.5
65.6%
home_+0.5
61.1%
away_-0.5
38.9%
home_+1.5
81.4%
away_-1.5
18.6%
home_+2.5
93.0%
away_-2.5
7.0%
total_exact
exact_0
7.0%
exact_1
16.4%
exact_2
24.8%
exact_3
22.2%
exact_4
15.2%
exact_5
8.4%
exact_6
3.9%
exact_7plus
2.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
26.2%
draw
41.3%
away
32.5%
total
over_0.5
70.8%
under_0.5
29.2%
over_1.5
34.8%
under_1.5
65.2%
over_2.5
12.7%
under_2.5
87.3%
btts
yes
21.0%
no
79.0%
total_exact
exact_0
29.2%
exact_1
35.9%
exact_2
22.1%
exact_3
9.1%
exact_4plus
3.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
24.2%
draw
37.3%
away
38.6%
total
over_0.5
76.3%
under_0.5
23.8%
over_1.5
42.1%
under_1.5
57.9%
over_2.5
17.6%
under_2.5
82.4%
btts
yes
25.6%
no
74.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
17.8%
H/D
5.6%
H/A
2.8%
D/H
10.0%
D/D
15.4%
D/A
15.9%
A/H
1.5%
A/D
4.6%
A/A
26.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
71.1%
under_7.5
28.9%
over_8.5
59.2%
under_8.5
40.8%
over_9.5
46.9%
under_9.5
53.1%
over_10.5
35.4%
under_10.5
64.6%
over_11.5
25.4%
under_11.5
74.6%
over_12.5
17.4%
under_12.5
82.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
71.9%
under_3.5
28.2%
over_4.5
56.3%
under_4.5
43.7%
over_5.5
41.1%
under_5.5
58.9%
team_away
over_3.5
59.3%
under_3.5
40.7%
over_4.5
42.1%
under_4.5
57.9%
over_5.5
27.6%
under_5.5
72.4%
most
home
53.9%
draw
10.7%
away
35.4%
handicap
home_-3.5
23.5%
away_+3.5
76.5%
home_-1.5
43.0%
away_+1.5
57.0%
home_-0.5
53.9%
away_+0.5
46.1%
home_+0.5
64.6%
away_-0.5
35.4%
home_+1.5
74.3%
away_-1.5
25.7%
home_+3.5
88.5%
away_-3.5
11.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
66.9%
under_22.5
33.1%
over_24.5
55.0%
under_24.5
45.0%
over_26.5
43.0%
under_26.5
57.0%
over_28.5
31.9%
under_28.5
68.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
76.1%
under_10.5
23.8%
over_12.5
61.1%
under_12.5
38.9%
over_14.5
45.3%
under_14.5
54.7%
team_away
over_10.5
55.2%
under_10.5
44.8%
over_12.5
37.6%
under_12.5
62.4%
over_14.5
23.2%
under_14.5
76.8%
most
home
63.4%
draw
5.6%
away
31.0%
handicap
home_-4.5
39.3%
away_+4.5
60.7%
home_-2.5
51.4%
away_+2.5
48.6%
home_-0.5
63.4%
away_+0.5
36.6%
home_+0.5
69.0%
away_-0.5
31.0%
home_+2.5
78.9%
away_-2.5
21.1%
home_+4.5
86.6%
away_-4.5
13.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
70.8%
under_6.5
29.2%
over_7.5
58.5%
under_7.5
41.5%
over_8.5
45.9%
under_8.5
54.1%
over_9.5
34.3%
under_9.5
65.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
67.3%
under_3.5
32.7%
over_4.5
50.5%
under_4.5
49.5%
over_5.5
35.0%
under_5.5
65.0%
team_away
over_3.5
47.9%
under_3.5
52.1%
over_4.5
30.4%
under_4.5
69.6%
over_5.5
17.6%
under_5.5
82.4%
most
home
57.8%
draw
12.1%
away
30.0%
handicap
home_-2.5
32.8%
away_+2.5
67.2%
home_-0.5
57.8%
away_+0.5
42.2%
home_+0.5
70.0%
away_-0.5
30.0%
home_+2.5
87.9%
away_-2.5
12.1%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
77.0%
under_2.5
23.0%
over_3.5
57.7%
under_3.5
42.3%
over_4.5
38.2%
under_4.5
61.8%
over_5.5
22.4%
under_5.5
77.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
56.0%
under_1.5
44.0%
over_2.5
29.0%
under_2.5
71.0%
team_away
over_1.5
64.0%
under_1.5
36.0%
over_2.5
37.1%
under_2.5
62.9%
most
home
34.1%
draw
20.3%
away
45.5%
handicap
home_-1.5
17.8%
away_+1.5
82.2%
home_-0.5
34.1%
away_+0.5
65.9%
home_+0.5
54.5%
away_-0.5
45.5%
home_+1.5
73.4%
away_-1.5
26.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
84.2%
under_20.5
15.8%
over_22.5
72.9%
under_22.5
27.1%
over_24.5
59.1%
under_24.5
40.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
79.8%
under_9.5
20.3%
over_11.5
60.7%
under_11.5
39.3%
over_13.5
39.9%
under_13.5
60.1%
team_away
over_9.5
83.1%
under_9.5
16.9%
over_11.5
65.5%
under_11.5
34.5%
over_13.5
45.0%
under_13.5
55.0%
most
home
42.7%
draw
7.4%
away
50.0%
handicap
home_-3.5
22.9%
away_+3.5
77.1%
home_-0.5
42.7%
away_+0.5
57.3%
home_+2.5
64.5%
away_-2.5
35.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
8.4%
no
91.6%
home
yes
5.1%
no
94.9%
away
yes
3.5%
no
96.6%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Süper Lig
Erzurumspor
Samsunspor