Süper Lig
Goztep vs 
Rizespor Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 63.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 81.0% for over 2.5 to 27.4% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.1%. Head to head on cards, Rizespor are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.5%, with a level count at 19.5%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 81.0% | 19.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 44.1% | 55.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 27.4% | 72.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
59.0%
31.9%
68.6%
42.4%
Card handicap
| Goztep line | Goztep | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.5% | 82.5% |
| -0.5 | 33.1% | 67.0% |
| +0.5 | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| +1.5 | 71.1% | 28.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 85.0% | 15.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 74.0% | 26.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 60.3% | 39.7% |
This season (2026/27)
2.4Goztep cards per game13.6Goztep fouls per game2.4Rizespor cards per game11.8Rizespor fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Goztep vs Rizespor. Slightly more cards are projected for Rizespor for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
63.4%Over 3.5 cards18.5%Any red card59.0%Goztep over 1.5 cards68.6%Rizespor over 1.5 cards74.0%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Goztep over 1.5 cards sits at 59.0% and Rizespor at 68.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.5% (Goztep 4.8%, Rizespor 14.4%). This season Goztep have averaged 2.4 cards a game and Rizespor 2.4.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Goztep vs Rizespor?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 63.4% for Goztep vs Rizespor.
Will there be a red card in Goztep vs Rizespor?
The model rates a red card for either side at 18.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Goztep vs Rizespor?
The model rates Rizespor to pick up more cards at 47.5%, with a level count at 19.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,117 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
