Süper Lig
Buyuksehyr vs 
Genclerbirligi Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 63.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 81.2% for over 2.5 to 27.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.4%. On the card count, Genclerbirligi are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.5%, with a level count at 19.7%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 81.2% | 18.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 44.4% | 55.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 27.5% | 72.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
63.3%
36.4%
65.1%
38.3%
Card handicap
| Buyuksehyr line | Buyuksehyr | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.8% | 78.2% |
| -0.5 | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| +0.5 | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| +1.5 | 76.1% | 23.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 86.1% | 14.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 62.2% | 37.8% |
This season (2026/27)
2.8Buyuksehyr cards per game13.2Buyuksehyr fouls per game2.0Genclerbirligi cards per game12.8Genclerbirligi fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Buyuksehyr vs Genclerbirligi. It tips Genclerbirligi for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
63.6%Over 3.5 cards15.6%Any red card63.3%Buyuksehyr over 1.5 cards65.1%Genclerbirligi over 1.5 cards75.5%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Buyuksehyr over 1.5 cards sits at 63.3% and Genclerbirligi at 65.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.6% (Buyuksehyr 5.8%, Genclerbirligi 10.4%). This season Buyuksehyr have averaged 2.8 cards a game and Genclerbirligi 2.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Buyuksehyr vs Genclerbirligi?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 63.6% for Buyuksehyr vs Genclerbirligi.
Will there be a red card in Buyuksehyr vs Genclerbirligi?
The model rates a red card for either side at 15.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Buyuksehyr vs Genclerbirligi?
The model rates Genclerbirligi to pick up more cards at 41.5%, with a level count at 19.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,117 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
