Süper Lig
Erzurumspor vs 
Samsunspor Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 57.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 77.0% for over 2.5 to 22.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.7%. On the card count, Samsunspor are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.5%, with a level count at 20.3%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 77.0% | 23.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 38.2% | 61.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 22.4% | 77.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
56.0%
29.0%
64.0%
37.1%
Card handicap
| Erzurumspor line | Erzurumspor | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.8% | 82.2% |
| -0.5 | 34.1% | 65.9% |
| +0.5 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| +1.5 | 73.4% | 26.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 84.2% | 15.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 72.9% | 27.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 59.1% | 40.9% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Erzurumspor cards per game11.6Erzurumspor fouls per game0.4Samsunspor cards per game11.6Samsunspor fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor. Slightly more cards are projected for Samsunspor for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
57.7%Over 3.5 cards8.4%Any red card56.0%Erzurumspor over 1.5 cards64.0%Samsunspor over 1.5 cards72.9%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Erzurumspor over 1.5 cards sits at 56.0% and Samsunspor at 64.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.4% (Erzurumspor 5.1%, Samsunspor 3.5%). This season Erzurumspor have averaged 1.0 cards a game and Samsunspor 0.4.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 57.7% for Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor.
Will there be a red card in Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor?
The model rates a red card for either side at 8.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor?
The model rates Samsunspor to pick up more cards at 45.5%, with a level count at 20.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,115 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
