Süper Lig
Trabzonspor vs 
Galatasaray Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 63.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 80.9% for over 2.5 to 27.2% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.0%. Between the two sides, Galatasaray are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.5%, with a level count at 19.4%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 80.9% | 19.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 44.0% | 56.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 27.2% | 72.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
58.1%
31.1%
69.1%
43.0%
Card handicap
| Trabzonspor line | Trabzonspor | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.8% | 83.2% |
| -0.5 | 32.1% | 67.9% |
| +0.5 | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| +1.5 | 70.3% | 29.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 79.2% | 20.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 66.2% | 33.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 51.4% | 48.6% |
This season (2026/27)
2.4Trabzonspor cards per game10.6Trabzonspor fouls per game1.8Galatasaray cards per game11.2Galatasaray fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray. Slightly more cards are projected for Galatasaray for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
63.2%Over 3.5 cards23.6%Any red card58.1%Trabzonspor over 1.5 cards69.1%Galatasaray over 1.5 cards66.2%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Trabzonspor over 1.5 cards sits at 58.1% and Galatasaray at 69.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 23.6% (Trabzonspor 11.1%, Galatasaray 14.0%). This season Trabzonspor have averaged 2.4 cards a game and Galatasaray 1.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 63.2% for Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray.
Will there be a red card in Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray?
The model rates a red card for either side at 23.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray?
The model rates Galatasaray to pick up more cards at 48.5%, with a level count at 19.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,117 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
