AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga
Gil VicenteGil VicenteLLDWW
Full time0-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1020:30UK
PortoPortoWWWWW

Gil Vicente 0-1 Porto cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined66.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined33.8%

Result

Gil Vicente0-1Porto
1 yellow cardsGil Vicente 0, Porto 1
1 red cardsGil Vicente 1, Porto 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 66.2% and it missed (1 in the match). We called No at 82.8% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards66.2%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Gil Vicente vs Porto. The model leans toward Gil Vicente for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 82.9% 17.1%
3.5 cards 66.2% 33.8%
4.5 cards 47.3% 52.8%
5.5 cards 30.1% 69.9%

Who picks up more cards

Gil Vicente
42.4%
Level
19.3%
Porto
38.2%

Team cards lines

Gil Vicente

Over 1.5
67.4%
Over 2.5
40.9%

Porto

Over 1.5
64.7%
Over 2.5
37.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Gil Vicente's; Porto gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Gil Vicente line Gil Vicente Porto
-1.5 24.9% 75.1%
-0.5 42.4% 57.6%
+0.5 61.8% 38.2%
+1.5 78.4% 21.6%

Red card

Any red card17.2%
Gil Vicente red card10.4%
Porto red card7.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 82.1% 17.9%
22.5 fouls 71.8% 28.2%
24.5 fouls 59.7% 40.4%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Porto Miguel Nogueira 2 3.5 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Gil VicenteGil Vicente

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Gil Vicente at home and Porto away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

PortoPorto
Statistic
Gil Vicente
Porto
Yellow cards per game
2.0
·

First-half yellow cards per game
0.8
·

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.2
·

Matches with card data
1
3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 66.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 82.9% for over 2.5 to 30.1% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.3%. On the card count, Gil Vicente are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.4%, with a level count at 19.3%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Gil Vicente over 1.5 cards sits at 67.4% and Porto at 64.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.2% (Gil Vicente 10.4%, Porto 7.6%). Porto’s most frequent referee this season, Miguel Nogueira, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

66.2%Over 3.5 cards
17.2%Any red card
42.4%Most cards: Gil Vicente
67.4%Gil Vicente over 1.5 cards
64.7%Porto over 1.5 cards
71.8%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 66.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherMiguel Nogueira, Porto’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 17.2%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianGil Vicente are the pick to collect more cards at 42.4%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
Gil VicenteGil Vicente

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

PortoPorto
Statistic
Gil Vicente
Porto
fouls per game
14.6
13.2

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Gil Vicente vs Porto?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 66.2% for Gil Vicente vs Porto.
Will there be a red card in Gil Vicente vs Porto?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 17.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Gil Vicente vs Porto?
Before kickoff, the model rated Gil Vicente to pick up more cards at 42.4%, with a level count at 19.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.