Alverca 0-1 Arouca: result, our prediction
Pre-match model estimates · MODELS TOP 3
Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Prediction snapshot · Model generated .
Post-match analysis
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
A call is the side our published probability favoured. If we leaned towards under and three goals went in, that counts as a miss.
The half-by-half shots come from a different source than the match shot total, and we only use them when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. That is why the two numbers can differ slightly.
Match data
| AlvercaAlverca | Statistic | AroucaArouca |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Goals | 1 |
| 0 | Goals, 1st half | 1 |
| 0 | Goals, 2nd half | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | Shots, 1st half | 11 |
| 8 | Shots, 2nd half | 6 |
| 1 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 0 | On target, 1st half | 3 |
| 1 | On target, 2nd half | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
RefereePedro Miguel Torres Ramalho
The result, on the record
Recorded tally 3 of 12 published calls on this match were right.
Published calls · recorded grading
| # | Market | Our pick | Our chance | Recorded grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Match result | Pick: Alverca | Chance: 40.2% | Wrong |
| 2 | Total goals 2.5 | Pick: Over 2.5 | Chance: 50.4% | Wrong1 goals |
| 3 | Total goals 1.5 | Pick: Over 1.5 | Chance: 75.5% | Wrong1 goals |
| 4 | Total goals 3.5 | Pick: Under 3.5 | Chance: 71.7% | Correct1 goals |
| 5 | Both teams to score | Pick: Yes | Chance: 55.1% | Wrong |
| 6 | First-half goal | Pick: Yes | Chance: 70.6% | Correct |
| # | Market | Our pick | Our chance | Recorded grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Second-half goal | Pick: Yes | Chance: 79.3% | Wrong |
| 8 | Total corners 9.5 | Pick: Under 9.5 | Chance: 58.2% | Correct6 corners |
| 9 | Yellow cards 3.5 | Pick: Over 3.5 | Chance: 70.6% | Wrong3 yellow cards |
| 10 | Total shots 24.5 | Pick: Under 24.5 | Chance: 55.6% | Wrong27 shots |
| 11 | Shots on target 7.5 | Pick: Over 7.5 | Chance: 53.3% | Wrong5 shots on target |
| 12 | Red card | Pick: No | Chance: 75.8% | Wrong |
Our verdict
Road2Sushi's own call on this match: the likeliest result, how confident the model is, its strongest signals and the reasons behind them.
Every percentage is a model estimate and every fair price is 1 divided by that estimate. Neither is a bookmaker offer, and a model call is not a proven edge over the market.
Model pick
Save model pickSaved to my betsTop signals
Model read
Form & head-to-head
Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.
Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.
D
L
W
W
W
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
W
D
L
D
W
2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
Odds: model vs bookmaker
Every price for this match in one place: the model's probabilities next to the bookmaker's, the bookmaker's prices with our gap, and the model's own fair odds for each market.
Bookmaker probabilities are de-vigged (the margin is removed) and come from one bookmaker. A gap between the model and that bookmaker is a disagreement, not a proven edge. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not a bookmaker quote.
Model vs market
Pre-match estimates, recorded before the match.
1X2, Goals and Corners: Bet365 prices via API-Football, observed 24 Oct 2026, 15:51 UTC, with the bookmaker margin taken out.
A market probability is the bookmaker's own price with its margin taken out, so the outcomes of each line add up to 100%. A gap from our model is a disagreement, not a proven edge: when we tested 1X2 and goal totals on matches the model had never seen, the bookmaker's closing price was more accurate. For corners, cards and shots we have no such test.
Every market price shown was recorded before kick-off.
1X2
Goals
Cards
No recorded bookmaker price for this market.
Corners
Shots
No recorded bookmaker price for this market.
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (APIF:Pinnacle:4) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Gap is our probability minus the probability the bookmaker price implies (1 divided by the price), in percentage points. Because the price includes the margin, most gaps are negative. Model highlights are outcomes where our probability is at least 15 points higher. A gap is a disagreement, not a proven edge.
After full time these are the stored pre-match prices, kept for the record. They are not current prices, so no outcome is highlighted.
Match result · 1X2
Goals · 2.5
Model fair odds
Our published model probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote. Only the supported 1X2 calibration pool is calibrated; other markets retain their model estimates.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
Goals
Both teams combined.
Read context
Both teams combined
Over 1.5 · Strongest read · Very likely
Over 2.5 · Close call
BTTS · Yes · Close call
Corners
Both teams combined.
Read context
Both teams combined
Over 7.5 corners · Likely
Over 8.5 corners · Close call
Over 9.5 corners · Unlikely
Over 10.5 corners · Unlikely
Over 11.5 corners · Long shot
Over 12.5 corners · Long shot
Most corners
Each team has its own model probability; these outcomes are not renormalised.
57.6%
Fair odds 1.7432.2%
Fair odds 3.10Read context
Each team has its own model probability; these outcomes are not renormalised.
Alverca
Arouca
Shots
Both teams combined.
Read context
Both teams combined
Over 22.5 shots · Close call
Over 24.5 shots · Unlikely
Over 26.5 shots · Unlikely
Over 28.5 shots · Long shot
Over 6.5 on target · Likely
Over 7.5 on target · Close call
Over 8.5 on target · Unlikely
Over 9.5 on target · Long shot
What the model expects
The average number of shots and shots on target each team takes in the model's own distribution for this match, the same distribution the lines above come from. It is an average, not a betting line, and it is a model estimate, not a recorded result.
| Model expects | Shots | On target |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 12.8 | 4.3 |
| Arouca | 11.1 | 3.7 |
| Both teams | 23.9 | 8.0 |
Recorded shots per game
Shots per game over each side's most recent league matches with shot data, and over the most recent matches at the venue of this match: Alverca at home and Arouca away. These are recorded results, not predictions, and a missing value is never shown as zero.
| Last 6 matches | Shots | Faced | On target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 11.3 | 13.0 | 4.0 |
| Arouca | 10.8 | 14.3 | 3.7 |
| Alverca at home | 10.5 | 12.0 | 2.8 |
| Arouca away | 10.3 | 16.2 | 3.2 |
Totals line guide
Both teams combined.
The stored model call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Read context
Both teams combined. Each bar uses the stored model estimate for that exact total-goals line. Missing estimates are unavailable; they are not zero.
Fair odds are the model’s own probability price, not a published bookmaker offer.
Market explorer
Model probabilities and fair odds.
Each bar is a specific Over selection for both teams combined. Its height is the model probability, on the same 0–100% scale.
Risk describes estimated likelihood, not profitability: low risk at least 62%, medium 48% to under 62%, high below 48%. Colors follow the actual estimate, even when a risk band is missing.
Up to four markets are selected from available model data, prioritising a spread of risk profiles. Fair odds are calculated from the model, not bookmaker prices: 1 divided by probability.
Scores are exact home-away outcomes from zero to five goals per team. Unavailable estimates stay blank; partial inputs are not expanded, inferred or normalised. Scores outside the matrix remain eligible for the top three.
Goals
Cards
Corners
Shots on target
| Goal axes | Home goals | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Away goals 0 | 0-07.4%Fair odds 13.50 | 1-09.1%Fair odds 11.03 | 2-06.9%Fair odds 14.51 | 3-03.3%Fair odds 30.58 | 4-01.2%Fair odds 85.47 | 5-00.3%Fair odds 303.03 |
| Away goals 1 | 0-18.0%Fair odds 12.53 | 1-112.9%Fair odds 7.78 | 2-18.7%Fair odds 11.47 | 3-14.1%Fair odds 24.15 | 4-11.5%Fair odds 68.03 | 5-10.4%Fair odds 238.10 |
| Away goals 2 | 0-25.4%Fair odds 18.42 | 1-27.7%Fair odds 12.94 | 2-25.5%Fair odds 18.15 | 3-22.6%Fair odds 38.17 | 4-20.9%Fair odds 107.53 | 5-20.3%Fair odds 370.37 |
| Away goals 3 | 0-32.3%Fair odds 43.67 | 1-33.3%Fair odds 30.67 | 2-32.3%Fair odds 43.10 | 3-31.1%Fair odds 90.91 | 4-30.4%Fair odds 256.41 | 5-30.1%Fair odds 909.09 |
| Away goals 4 | 0-40.7%Fair odds 138.89 | 1-41.0%Fair odds 97.09 | 2-40.7%Fair odds 136.99 | 3-40.4%Fair odds 285.71 | 4-40.1%Fair odds 833.33 | 5-40.0%Fair odds 2,500.00 |
| Away goals 5 | 0-50.2%Fair odds 555.56 | 1-50.3%Fair odds 384.62 | 2-50.2%Fair odds 526.32 | 3-50.1%Fair odds 1,111.11 | 4-50.0%Fair odds 3,333.33 | 5-50.0%Fair odds 10,000.00 |
Model’s 3 most likely score outcomes
Model probability · Fair odds
Referee
One match referee is shown from an explicitly saved result or a fresh, identity-matched provider fixture. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment. An API listing can change.
The referee’s totals count every completed match with this referee in our data: football-data.co.uk names the referee in English leagues, and API-Football names the referee of the same match (same teams, date and score) in every league from 2025/26. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure.
The team table shows each team’s published history with that same referee only. Matches, team cards per game and match cards per game are separate fields; their available samples can differ. Missing values are not zero. Cards include yellow and red cards in the current historical source.
Referee information needs verification
No verified match referee is available in the saved data.
Season stats
2026/27 season. Recorded results, not model estimates.
Overview
PPG scale: 0–3 points per game. Each team uses the same scale independently.
Show all season statsHide season stats
Goals
Scale: 0–3 goals or expected goals (xG) per game. Each team uses the same scale independently.
Shooting
Scale: 0–20 shots per game. Each team uses the same scale independently.
Corners & discipline
0–10 corners per game; 0–20 fouls per game Each team uses the same scale independently.
Goal rates
Scale: 0–100% of recorded matches, not model estimates. Each team uses the same scale independently.
League averages this season: 2.78 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56.2% · BTTS in 50.7%. Full league tables & stats →
First half / second half
Averages per game in this season’s league matches, split at half-time. Games is the number of each team’s matches with verified half data for that row; below five matches the row stays blank, and a missing value is never a zero.
Corners, shots on target and yellow cards per half come from the data provider’s half-by-half match statistics and are only used when the two halves add up to the full-time count. Cards are split by the minute they were shown, and first-half stoppage time counts as the first half. These are recorded results, not predictions.
In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the shots per half come from a different source than the match shot totals, so the two can differ slightly.
This match
| Alverca | Arouca | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistic | 1H | 2H | 1H | 2H |
| Goals | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Shots | 2 | 8 | 11 | 6 |
| Shots on target | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Corners | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Yellow cards | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Per game | 1H | 2H | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scoredScored | 0.71 | 0.57 | 7 |
| Goals concededConceded | 0.43 | 1.14 | 7 |
| Per game | 1H | 2H | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scoredScored | 0.57 | 0.86 | 7 |
| Goals concededConceded | 0.71 | 0.29 | 7 |
| Yellow cardsYellows | 0.4 | 1.8 | 5 |
| Opponent yellow cardsOpp. yellows | 1.0 | 1.4 | 5 |
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 56.5% | Over 24.5 | 44.4% | Over 26.5 | 33.1% | Over 28.5 | 23.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Alverca | 57.6% | Most: Arouca | 36.4% | ||||
| Alverca Over 10.5 | 66.2% | ||||||
| Alverca Over 12.5 | 49.7% | ||||||
| Alverca Over 14.5 | 34.3% | Arouca Over 10.5 | 51.7% | Arouca Over 12.5 | 34.6% | Arouca Over 14.5 | 21.1% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 66.5% | Over 7.5 | 53.3% | Over 8.5 | 40.5% | Over 9.5 | 29.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Alverca | 50.4% | Most: Arouca | 36.4% | ||||
| Alverca Over 3.5 | 59.7% | ||||||
| Alverca Over 4.5 | 41.8% | ||||||
| Alverca Over 5.5 | 26.7% | Arouca Over 3.5 | 49.8% | Arouca Over 4.5 | 31.9% | Arouca Over 5.5 | 18.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 85.8% | Over 3.5 | 70.6% | Over 4.5 | 52.4% | Over 5.5 | 35.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Alverca | 34.4% | Most: Arouca | 47.1% | ||||
| Alverca Over 1.5 | 65.1% | ||||||
| Alverca Over 2.5 | 38.4% | Arouca Over 1.5 | 72.9% | Arouca Over 2.5 | 47.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
| Alverca clean sheet | 28.1% |
|---|---|
| Arouca clean sheet | 24.0% |
| Alverca win to nil | 20.7% |
| Arouca win to nil | 16.6% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen. This is the raw model spectrum. Its match-result marginal can differ from the published 1X2 above; it does not replace the saved prediction.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 40.2% | draw | 27.0% | away | 32.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 67.2% | 12 | 73.0% | X2 | 59.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 55.1% | away | 44.9% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 55.1% | no | 44.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 28.2% | away | 24.1% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 20.8% | away | 16.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 20.8% | home_by_2 | 12.1% | home_by_3plus | 7.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 18.4% | away_by_2 | 9.5% | away_by_3plus | 4.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.4% | 0-1 | 8.0% | 0-2 | 5.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.3% | 0-4 | 0.7% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 9.1% | 1-1 | 12.9% | 1-2 | 7.7% |
| 1-3 | 3.3% | 1-4 | 1.0% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 6.9% | 2-1 | 8.7% | 2-2 | 5.5% |
| 2-3 | 2.3% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 3.3% | 3-1 | 4.1% | 3-2 | 2.6% |
| 3-3 | 1.1% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.2% | 4-1 | 1.5% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.6% | under_0.5 | 7.4% | over_1.5 | 75.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 24.5% | over_2.5 | 50.4% | under_2.5 | 49.6% |
| over_3.5 | 28.3% | under_3.5 | 71.7% | over_4.5 | 13.6% |
| under_4.5 | 86.5% | over_5.5 | 5.6% | under_5.5 | 94.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 75.9% | under_0.5 | 24.1% | over_1.5 | 41.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.3% | over_2.5 | 17.3% | under_2.5 | 82.8% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 71.8% | under_0.5 | 28.2% | over_1.5 | 36.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.0% | over_2.5 | 13.5% | under_2.5 | 86.5% |
most
| home | 40.2% | draw | 27.0% | away | 32.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 7.3% | away_+2.5 | 92.7% | home_-1.5 | 19.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 80.6% | home_-0.5 | 40.2% | away_+0.5 | 59.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.2% | away_-0.5 | 32.8% | home_+1.5 | 85.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 14.4% | home_+2.5 | 95.1% | away_-2.5 | 4.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.4% | exact_1 | 17.1% | exact_2 | 25.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.0% | exact_4 | 14.8% | exact_5 | 8.0% |
| exact_6 | 3.6% | exact_7plus | 2.0% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 36.4% | draw | 41.0% | away | 22.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 70.6% | under_0.5 | 29.4% | over_1.5 | 34.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.3% | over_2.5 | 12.6% | under_2.5 | 87.4% |
btts
| yes | 20.3% | no | 79.7% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 29.4% | exact_1 | 36.0% | exact_2 | 22.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 9.0% | exact_4plus | 3.6% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 26.6% | draw | 35.4% | away | 38.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 79.3% | under_0.5 | 20.7% | over_1.5 | 46.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 53.3% | over_2.5 | 21.0% | under_2.5 | 79.0% |
btts
| yes | 29.2% | no | 70.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 25.6% | H/D | 7.1% | H/A | 3.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 10.9% | D/D | 14.5% | D/A | 15.6% |
| A/H | 1.4% | A/D | 3.6% | A/A | 17.5% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 65.0% | under_7.5 | 35.0% | over_8.5 | 53.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 46.7% | over_9.5 | 41.8% | under_9.5 | 58.2% |
| over_10.5 | 31.4% | under_10.5 | 68.6% | over_11.5 | 22.7% |
| under_11.5 | 77.3% | over_12.5 | 15.7% | under_12.5 | 84.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 69.5% | under_3.5 | 30.5% | over_4.5 | 54.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 45.2% | over_5.5 | 40.7% | under_5.5 | 59.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 51.3% | under_3.5 | 48.7% | over_4.5 | 35.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 64.8% | over_5.5 | 22.6% | under_5.5 | 77.4% |
most
| home | 57.6% | draw | 10.2% | away | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 27.4% | away_+3.5 | 72.6% | home_-1.5 | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 53.0% | home_-0.5 | 57.6% | away_+0.5 | 42.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.8% | away_-0.5 | 32.2% | home_+1.5 | 76.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.2% | home_+3.5 | 89.6% | away_-3.5 | 10.4% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 56.5% | under_22.5 | 43.5% | over_24.5 | 44.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 55.6% | over_26.5 | 33.1% | under_26.5 | 66.9% |
| over_28.5 | 23.3% | under_28.5 | 76.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 66.2% | under_10.5 | 33.8% | over_12.5 | 49.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 50.3% | over_14.5 | 34.3% | under_14.5 | 65.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 51.7% | under_10.5 | 48.3% | over_12.5 | 34.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 65.4% | over_14.5 | 21.1% | under_14.5 | 78.9% |
most
| home | 57.6% | draw | 6.0% | away | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 33.3% | away_+4.5 | 66.7% | home_-2.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 54.8% | home_-0.5 | 57.6% | away_+0.5 | 42.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.6% | away_-0.5 | 36.4% | home_+2.5 | 74.5% |
| away_-2.5 | 25.5% | home_+4.5 | 83.4% | away_-4.5 | 16.6% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 66.5% | under_6.5 | 33.5% | over_7.5 | 53.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 46.7% | over_8.5 | 40.5% | under_8.5 | 59.5% |
| over_9.5 | 29.0% | under_9.5 | 71.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 59.7% | under_3.5 | 40.3% | over_4.5 | 41.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.2% | over_5.5 | 26.7% | under_5.5 | 73.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 49.8% | under_3.5 | 50.2% | over_4.5 | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 68.1% | over_5.5 | 18.5% | under_5.5 | 81.5% |
most
| home | 50.4% | draw | 13.3% | away | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 25.4% | away_+2.5 | 74.6% | home_-0.5 | 50.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 49.6% | home_+0.5 | 63.6% | away_-0.5 | 36.4% |
| home_+2.5 | 84.7% | away_-2.5 | 15.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 85.8% | under_2.5 | 14.2% | over_3.5 | 70.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 29.4% | over_4.5 | 52.4% | under_4.5 | 47.6% |
| over_5.5 | 35.0% | under_5.5 | 65.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 65.1% | under_1.5 | 34.9% | over_2.5 | 38.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 61.7% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 72.9% | under_1.5 | 27.1% | over_2.5 | 47.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 52.3% |
most
| home | 34.4% | draw | 18.5% | away | 47.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 19.2% | away_+1.5 | 80.9% | home_-0.5 | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 65.6% | home_+0.5 | 52.9% | away_-0.5 | 47.1% |
| home_+1.5 | 70.7% | away_-1.5 | 29.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 77.4% | under_20.5 | 22.6% | over_22.5 | 65.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 34.3% | over_24.5 | 52.8% | under_24.5 | 47.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 74.4% | under_9.5 | 25.6% | over_11.5 | 56.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 43.6% | over_13.5 | 38.3% | under_13.5 | 61.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 76.0% | under_9.5 | 24.0% | over_11.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 41.5% | over_13.5 | 40.5% | under_13.5 | 59.5% |
most
| home | 45.2% | draw | 6.6% | away | 48.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.9% | away_+3.5 | 73.1% | home_-0.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 54.8% | home_+2.5 | 64.6% | away_-2.5 | 35.4% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 24.3% | no | 75.8% |
|---|
home
| yes | 16.6% | no | 83.4% |
|---|
away
| yes | 9.2% | no | 90.8% |
|---|
Method, limits & performance
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
What we use
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Our method
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
What we don’t do
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Performance snapshot
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0106 (56038 matches).
Next fixtures for Alverca and Arouca
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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