AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

League Two
Fleetwood TownFleetwood TownLDWLL
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1015:00UK
Bristol RvsBristol RvsLLLLD

Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined59.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined40.2%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards59.8%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rvs. Slightly more cards are projected for Bristol Rvs for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 78.5% 21.5%
3.5 cards 59.8% 40.2%
4.5 cards 40.3% 59.7%
5.5 cards 24.1% 75.9%

Who picks up more cards

Fleetwood Town
35.9%
Level
20.2%
Bristol Rvs
43.9%

Team cards lines

Fleetwood Town

Over 1.5
58.7%
Over 2.5
31.7%

Bristol Rvs

Over 1.5
64.3%
Over 2.5
37.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Fleetwood Town's; Bristol Rvs gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Fleetwood Town line Fleetwood Town Bristol Rvs
-1.5 19.3% 80.7%
-0.5 35.9% 64.1%
+0.5 56.1% 43.9%
+1.5 74.5% 25.5%

Red card

Any red card18.4%
Fleetwood Town red card5.7%
Bristol Rvs red card13.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 71.0% 29.0%
22.5 fouls 56.3% 43.7%
24.5 fouls 41.1% 59.0%
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Fleetwood Town at home and Bristol Rvs away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Bristol RvsBristol Rvs
Statistic
Fleetwood Town
Bristol Rvs
Cards per game at this venue
2.3
2.8

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.8
2.8

Yellow cards per game
2.5
2.3

First-half yellow cards per game
0.9
1.2

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.6
1.1

Matches with more cards than the opponent
37.5%
60.0%

Matches with card data
8
10
Red cards this season
0
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 59.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 78.5% for over 2.5 to 24.1% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 40.3%. Between the two sides, Bristol Rvs are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.9%, with a level count at 20.2%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Fleetwood Town over 1.5 cards sits at 58.7% and Bristol Rvs at 64.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.4% (Fleetwood Town 5.7%, Bristol Rvs 13.4%). This season Fleetwood Town have averaged 1.9 cards a game and Bristol Rvs 2.5.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

59.8%Over 3.5 cards
18.4%Any red card
43.9%Most cards: Bristol Rvs
58.7%Fleetwood Town over 1.5 cards
64.3%Bristol Rvs over 1.5 cards
56.3%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 59.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 18.4%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianBristol Rvs are the pick to collect more cards at 43.9%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 40.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Bristol RvsBristol Rvs
Statistic
Fleetwood Town
Bristol Rvs
cards per game
1.9
2.5

fouls per game
12.8
13.1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rvs?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 59.8% for Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rvs.
Will there be a red card in Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rvs?
The model rates a red card for either side at 18.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rvs?
The model rates Bristol Rvs to pick up more cards at 43.9%, with a level count at 20.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More League Two, Cards

Newport County vs Chesterfield cards predictionGrimsby vs York cards predictionPort Vale vs Rochdale cards predictionAccrington vs Northampton cards predictionColchester vs Walsall cards predictionCrewe vs Barnet cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

League TwoFleetwood Town fixtures and statsBristol Rovers fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.