Serie A
Fiorentina vs 
Napoli Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 49.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 61.9% for over 22.5 to 27.8% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.9%. Head to head on shots, Fiorentina are the model’s pick to have more shots at 58.7%, with a level count at 5.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| 24.5 shots | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 38.3% | 61.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 27.8% | 72.2% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
70.4%
54.4%
38.8%
54.9%
37.6%
23.5%
Shot handicap
| Fiorentina line | Fiorentina | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 34.8% | 65.2% |
| -2.5 | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| -0.5 | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| +0.5 | 64.6% | 35.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 30.7% | 69.3% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
7.8 / 9.0
4.8 / 9.5
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Fiorentina.
In-depth analysis
49.9%Over 24.5 shots54.4%Fiorentina over 12.5 shots37.6%Napoli over 12.5 shots52.6%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Fiorentina over 12.5 shots sits at 54.4% and Napoli at 37.6%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Fiorentina vs Napoli?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 49.9% for Fiorentina vs Napoli.
Which team will have more shots in Fiorentina vs Napoli?
The model rates Fiorentina to take more shots at 58.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,699 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.