Serie A
Fiorentina vs 
Napoli Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 40.6%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 63.0% for over 7.5 to 16.2% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.7%. Head to head on corners, Fiorentina are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 51.9%, with a level count at 10.5%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| 8.5 corners | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 9.5 corners | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| 10.5 corners | 31.1% | 69.0% |
| 11.5 corners | 22.8% | 77.2% |
| 12.5 corners | 16.2% | 83.8% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
64.5%
49.6%
36.2%
54.4%
38.9%
26.1%
Corner handicap
| Fiorentina line | Fiorentina | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| -0.5 | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| +0.5 | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| +1.5 | 71.9% | 28.1% |
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Fiorentina.
In-depth analysis
For the team lines, Fiorentina over 4.5 corners sits at 49.6% and Napoli at 38.9%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Fiorentina vs Napoli?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 40.8% for Fiorentina vs Napoli.
Which team will win the corner count in Fiorentina vs Napoli?
The model rates Fiorentina to win the corner count at 51.9%, with a level count at 10.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,617 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.