Shots
| Over 22.5 |
62.1% |
Over 24.5 |
50.1% |
Over 26.5 |
38.5% |
Over 28.5 |
28.0% |
| Most: Venezia |
58.8% |
Most: Lazio |
35.4% |
| Venezia Over 13.2 |
46.6% |
Lazio Over 13.2 |
30.2% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
69.2% |
Over 7.5 |
57.7% |
Over 8.5 |
46.3% |
Over 9.5 |
35.7% |
| Most: Venezia |
45.9% |
Most: Lazio |
42.3% |
| Venezia Over 4.2 |
42.2% |
Lazio Over 4.2 |
39.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
77.6% |
Over 3.5 |
59.5% |
Over 4.5 |
40.9% |
| Most: Venezia |
40.8% |
Most: Lazio |
39.7% |
| Venezia Over 1.8 |
61.1% |
Lazio Over 1.8 |
60.3% |
Venezia: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Akor Adams |
2.58 |
1.09 |
0.35 |
54.5% |
55.5% |
22.3% |
| John Yeboah |
2.51 |
0.86 |
0.12 |
32.3% |
31.5% |
5.3% |
| Toma Basic |
1.41 |
0.56 |
0.09 |
38.0% |
33.8% |
7.4% |
| Thórir Helgason |
1.35 |
0.54 |
0 |
23.4% |
14.4% |
0.0% |
| Kike Pérez |
1.21 |
0.43 |
0.12 |
27.7% |
23.2% |
8.7% |
Lazio: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Andrea Pinamonti |
2.5 |
1 |
0.3 |
56.1% |
60.9% |
21.9% |
| Tijjani Noslin |
2.66 |
1 |
0.33 |
30.0% |
24.6% |
11.1% |
| Gustav Isaksen |
2.4 |
0.94 |
0.18 |
45.3% |
45.6% |
10.9% |
| Albert Gudmundsson |
1.82 |
0.76 |
0.29 |
40.3% |
35.0% |
17.9% |
| Matteo Cancellieri |
1.81 |
0.7 |
0.19 |
36.1% |
32.1% |
11.4% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Venezia clean sheet |
23.4% |
| Lazio clean sheet |
38.0% |
| Venezia win to nil |
13.9% |
| Lazio win to nil |
28.4% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
24.5% |
draw |
27.8% |
away |
47.7% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
52.3% |
12 |
72.2% |
X2 |
75.6% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
15.6% |
home_by_2 |
6.5% |
home_by_3plus |
2.4% |
| away_by_1 |
23.8% |
away_by_2 |
14.6% |
away_by_3plus |
9.3% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
9.6% |
0-1 |
12.4% |
0-2 |
9.4% |
| 0-3 |
4.6% |
0-4 |
1.7% |
0-5 |
0.5% |
| 1-0 |
8.0% |
1-1 |
13.1% |
1-2 |
9.1% |
| 1-3 |
4.4% |
1-4 |
1.6% |
1-5 |
0.5% |
| 2-0 |
4.2% |
2-1 |
6.0% |
2-2 |
4.4% |
| 2-3 |
2.1% |
2-4 |
0.8% |
2-5 |
0.2% |
| 3-0 |
1.3% |
3-1 |
1.9% |
3-2 |
1.4% |
| 3-3 |
0.7% |
3-4 |
0.3% |
3-5 |
0.1% |
| 4-0 |
0.3% |
4-1 |
0.5% |
4-2 |
0.3% |
| 4-3 |
0.2% |
4-4 |
0.1% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
0.1% |
5-1 |
0.1% |
5-2 |
0.1% |
| 5-3 |
0.0% |
5-4 |
0.0% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
13.1% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
90.4% |
under_0.5 |
9.6% |
over_1.5 |
70.1% |
| under_1.5 |
29.9% |
over_2.5 |
43.4% |
under_2.5 |
56.6% |
| over_3.5 |
22.4% |
under_3.5 |
77.6% |
over_4.5 |
9.8% |
| under_4.5 |
90.2% |
over_5.5 |
3.7% |
under_5.5 |
96.3% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
61.9% |
under_0.5 |
38.2% |
over_1.5 |
25.1% |
| under_1.5 |
74.9% |
over_2.5 |
7.4% |
under_2.5 |
92.6% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
76.6% |
under_0.5 |
23.5% |
over_1.5 |
42.5% |
| under_1.5 |
57.5% |
over_2.5 |
17.9% |
under_2.5 |
82.1% |
|
most
| home |
24.5% |
draw |
27.8% |
away |
47.7% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
2.4% |
away_+2.5 |
97.6% |
home_-1.5 |
8.9% |
| away_+1.5 |
91.1% |
home_-0.5 |
24.5% |
away_+0.5 |
75.5% |
| home_+0.5 |
52.3% |
away_-0.5 |
47.7% |
home_+1.5 |
76.1% |
| away_-1.5 |
24.0% |
home_+2.5 |
90.7% |
away_-2.5 |
9.3% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
9.6% |
exact_1 |
20.3% |
exact_2 |
26.7% |
| exact_3 |
21.0% |
exact_4 |
12.7% |
exact_5 |
6.1% |
| exact_6 |
2.5% |
exact_7plus |
1.2% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
18.1% |
draw |
46.8% |
away |
35.1% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
62.0% |
under_0.5 |
38.0% |
over_1.5 |
25.2% |
| under_1.5 |
74.8% |
over_2.5 |
7.4% |
under_2.5 |
92.6% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
38.0% |
exact_1 |
36.8% |
exact_2 |
17.8% |
| exact_3 |
5.7% |
exact_4plus |
1.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
22.0% |
draw |
33.4% |
away |
44.6% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
81.1% |
under_0.5 |
18.9% |
over_1.5 |
49.6% |
| under_1.5 |
50.4% |
over_2.5 |
23.4% |
under_2.5 |
76.6% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
10.9% |
H/D |
4.4% |
H/A |
2.9% |
| D/H |
10.3% |
D/D |
15.6% |
D/A |
20.8% |
| A/H |
1.6% |
A/D |
4.6% |
A/A |
29.0% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
63.3% |
under_7.5 |
36.7% |
over_8.5 |
52.0% |
| under_8.5 |
48.0% |
over_9.5 |
41.2% |
under_9.5 |
58.9% |
| over_10.5 |
31.4% |
under_10.5 |
68.6% |
over_11.5 |
23.1% |
| under_11.5 |
76.9% |
over_12.5 |
16.4% |
under_12.5 |
83.6% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
65.7% |
under_3.5 |
34.3% |
over_4.5 |
51.0% |
| under_4.5 |
49.0% |
over_5.5 |
37.5% |
under_5.5 |
62.5% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
53.4% |
under_3.5 |
46.6% |
over_4.5 |
37.9% |
| under_4.5 |
62.1% |
over_5.5 |
25.3% |
under_5.5 |
74.8% |
|
most
| home |
53.5% |
draw |
10.4% |
away |
36.2% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
24.4% |
away_+3.5 |
75.6% |
home_-1.5 |
43.0% |
| away_+1.5 |
57.1% |
home_-0.5 |
53.5% |
away_+0.5 |
46.5% |
| home_+0.5 |
63.8% |
away_-0.5 |
36.2% |
home_+1.5 |
73.2% |
| away_-1.5 |
26.8% |
home_+3.5 |
87.3% |
away_-3.5 |
12.7% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
62.1% |
under_22.5 |
37.9% |
over_24.5 |
50.1% |
| under_24.5 |
49.9% |
over_26.5 |
38.5% |
under_26.5 |
61.5% |
| over_28.5 |
28.0% |
under_28.5 |
72.0% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
70.5% |
under_10.5 |
29.5% |
over_12.5 |
54.6% |
| under_12.5 |
45.4% |
over_14.5 |
38.9% |
under_14.5 |
61.1% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
55.0% |
under_10.5 |
45.0% |
over_12.5 |
37.7% |
| under_12.5 |
62.3% |
over_14.5 |
23.6% |
under_14.5 |
76.4% |
|
most
| home |
58.8% |
draw |
5.8% |
away |
35.4% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
34.8% |
away_+4.5 |
65.2% |
home_-2.5 |
46.6% |
| away_+2.5 |
53.4% |
home_-0.5 |
58.8% |
away_+0.5 |
41.2% |
| home_+0.5 |
64.6% |
away_-0.5 |
35.4% |
home_+2.5 |
75.2% |
| away_-2.5 |
24.8% |
home_+4.5 |
83.8% |
away_-4.5 |
16.2% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
69.2% |
under_6.5 |
30.8% |
over_7.5 |
57.8% |
| under_7.5 |
42.3% |
over_8.5 |
46.3% |
under_8.5 |
53.7% |
| over_9.5 |
35.7% |
under_9.5 |
64.3% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
58.2% |
under_3.5 |
41.8% |
over_4.5 |
42.2% |
| under_4.5 |
57.8% |
over_5.5 |
28.7% |
under_5.5 |
71.3% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
55.7% |
under_3.5 |
44.3% |
over_4.5 |
39.6% |
| under_4.5 |
60.4% |
over_5.5 |
26.3% |
under_5.5 |
73.7% |
|
most
| home |
45.9% |
draw |
11.9% |
away |
42.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
24.4% |
away_+2.5 |
75.6% |
home_-0.5 |
45.9% |
| away_+0.5 |
54.2% |
home_+0.5 |
57.7% |
away_-0.5 |
42.3% |
| home_+2.5 |
78.4% |
away_-2.5 |
21.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
77.6% |
under_2.5 |
22.4% |
over_3.5 |
59.5% |
| under_3.5 |
40.6% |
over_4.5 |
40.9% |
under_4.5 |
59.1% |
| over_5.5 |
25.3% |
under_5.5 |
74.7% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
61.1% |
under_1.5 |
38.9% |
over_2.5 |
35.3% |
| under_2.5 |
64.7% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
60.3% |
under_1.5 |
39.7% |
over_2.5 |
34.5% |
| under_2.5 |
65.5% |
most
| home |
40.8% |
draw |
19.6% |
away |
39.7% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
23.6% |
away_+1.5 |
76.4% |
home_-0.5 |
40.8% |
| away_+0.5 |
59.2% |
home_+0.5 |
60.3% |
away_-0.5 |
39.7% |
| home_+1.5 |
77.3% |
away_-1.5 |
22.7% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
74.3% |
under_20.5 |
25.7% |
over_22.5 |
62.0% |
| under_22.5 |
38.1% |
over_24.5 |
48.8% |
under_24.5 |
51.2% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
75.1% |
under_9.5 |
24.9% |
over_11.5 |
57.3% |
| under_11.5 |
42.7% |
over_13.5 |
39.2% |
under_13.5 |
60.8% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
70.7% |
under_9.5 |
29.3% |
over_11.5 |
51.9% |
| under_11.5 |
48.1% |
over_13.5 |
33.9% |
under_13.5 |
66.1% |
|
most
| home |
50.5% |
draw |
6.7% |
away |
42.8% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
31.2% |
away_+3.5 |
68.8% |
home_-0.5 |
50.5% |
| away_+0.5 |
49.5% |
home_+2.5 |
69.7% |
away_-2.5 |
30.3% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Serie A
Venezia
Lazio