Udinese vs Cagliari: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 16 Sep 2026

Serie A

Udinese

LDWLL

Sat, 19 Sep 202614:00UK26°C · Clearing

Cagliari

WWLWW

Model’s top convictions

72%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Udinese or draw

60%

Draw or Cagliari

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Udinese40.5%

Win probability · fair 2.47

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsLikely72.2%Fair 1.39

Udinese or drawLikely68.9%Fair 1.45

Draw or CagliariClose call59.5%Fair 1.68

Model read

Udinese versus Cagliari in the Serie A on 19 September 2026 is finely balanced. Udinese edge it at 40%, but the gap to the field is slim. The numbers that frame it: • Totals sit close to the fence: 46% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Udinese, 2 draws and 0 for Cagliari, averaging 2.2 goals a game. • Recent form reads W1 D1 L4 for Udinese against W5 D0 L1 for Cagliari. Keinan Davis drives the home shot volume, 1.0 on target per 90. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals45.9%@ 2.18

Over 9.5 corners40.3%@ 2.48

Over 10.5 corners31.4%@ 3.18

Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals54.1%@ 1.85

Both teams to score51.6%@ 1.94

Over 8.5 corners50.1%@ 2.00

Random finds

1-1 correct score13.4%@ 7.47

1-0 correct score10.1%@ 9.90

0-1 correct score9.0%@ 11.12

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Udinese

40.5%

Draw

28.4%

Cagliari

31.1%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely72.2%Fair 1.39

Over 2.5Close call45.9%Fair 2.18

BTTS · YesClose call51.6%Fair 1.94

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call50.1%Fair 2.00

Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely40.3%Fair 2.48

Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely31.4%Fair 3.18

Over 11.5 cornersLong shot23.9%Fair 4.18

Most cornersUdinese52.0%Cagliari37.3%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely62.5%Fair 1.60

Over 24.5 shotsClose call50.5%Fair 1.98

Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely38.8%Fair 2.58

Over 28.5 shotsLong shot28.3%Fair 3.53

Recent shot volume

Udinese10.8 taken17.0 faced

Cagliari14.5 taken17.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Udinese (4 games)

6.8 / 4.5

Cagliari (4 games)

4.2 / 8.0

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.572.2%2.545.9%3.5·4.5·

Recommended focusOver 1.572.2%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

UdineseLDWLL

CagliariWWLWW

Last 5 meetings: Udinese 3 · 2 draws · Cagliari 0 · 2.2 goals/game.

2026-05-09Cagliari 0-2 Udinese

2025-10-05Udinese 1-1 Cagliari

2025-05-03Cagliari 1-2 Udinese

2024-10-25Udinese 2-0 Cagliari

2024-02-18Udinese 1-1 Cagliari

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Udinese

Cagliari

League position#13 of 20#5 of 20

Record W-D-L1-1-23-0-1

Current streakL2W2

Record, home vs away0-1-12-0-0

Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.02 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 57% · BTTS in 60%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Keinan DavisUdinese · key player

To score20.2%4.95

1+ on target51.3%1.95

2+ shots45.9%2.18

Shots/90 2.2SoT/90 1.02Goals/90 0.32

Mattia FeliciCagliari · key player

To score6.0%16.67

1+ on target32.6%3.07

2+ shots11.4%8.77

Shots/90 1.3SoT/90 0.89Goals/90 0.14

Nicolo ZanioloUdinese · in form

To score12.1%8.26

1+ on target42.2%2.37

2+ shots50.5%1.98

Shots/90 2.75SoT/90 0.89Goals/90 0.21

Paul MendyCagliari · in form

To score20.5%4.88

1+ on target37.1%2.70

2+ shots50.5%1.98

Shots/90 3.25SoT/90 0.89Goals/90 0.44

Idrissa GueyeUdinese · in form

To score7.6%13.16

1+ on target21.4%4.67

2+ shots29.4%3.40

Shots/90 3.94SoT/90 0.88Goals/90 0.29

Daniel MaldiniCagliari · in form

To score16.3%6.13

1+ on target37.7%2.65

2+ shots43.2%2.31

Shots/90 2.64SoT/90 0.85Goals/90 0.32

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Udinese win2.55

Draw3.56

Cagliari win3.06

Both teams to score1.94

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10

Over 1.5 goals1.39

Over 2.5 goals2.18

Over 3.5 goals4.08

Udinese most2.55

Cagliari most3.06

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.60

Over 8.5 corners1.95

Over 9.5 corners2.47

Over 10.5 corners3.26

Udinese most1.92

Cagliari most2.68

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.52

Over 3.5 cards2.23

Over 4.5 cards3.72

Over 5.5 cards6.97

Udinese most2.87

Cagliari most2.31

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.52

Over 7.5 SoT1.85

Over 8.5 SoT2.35

Over 9.5 SoT3.10

Udinese most2.02

Cagliari most2.61

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.60

Over 24.5 shots1.98

Over 26.5 shots2.58

Over 28.5 shots3.53

Udinese most1.68

Cagliari most2.89

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.33

Over 22.5 fouls1.59

Over 24.5 fouls2.01

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5	62.5%	Over 24.5	50.5%	Over 26.5	38.8%	Over 28.5	28.3%
Most: Udinese	59.7%	Most: Cagliari	34.6%
Udinese Over 13.2	47.4%	Cagliari Over 13.2	29.8%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	66.0%	Over 7.5	54.2%	Over 8.5	42.6%	Over 9.5	32.2%
Most: Udinese	49.6%	Most: Cagliari	38.3%
Udinese Over 4.2	42.3%	Cagliari Over 4.2	34.2%

Cards

Over 2.5	65.9%	Over 3.5	44.8%	Over 4.5	26.9%
Most: Udinese	34.8%	Most: Cagliari	43.3%
Udinese Over 1.8	47.3%	Cagliari Over 1.8	53.6%

Udinese: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Keinan Davis	2.2	1.02	0.32	51.3%	45.9%	20.2%
Nicolo Zaniolo	2.75	0.89	0.21	42.2%	50.5%	12.1%
Idrissa Gueye	3.94	0.88	0.29	21.4%	29.4%	7.6%
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp	1.38	0.57	0.2	34.6%	27.4%	13.8%
Vakoun Bayo	3.08	0.54	0	15.2%	24.3%	0.0%

Cagliari: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Mattia Felici	1.3	0.89	0.14	32.6%	11.4%	6.0%
Paul Mendy	3.25	0.89	0.44	37.1%	50.5%	20.5%
Daniel Maldini	2.64	0.85	0.32	37.7%	43.2%	16.3%
Gennaro Borrelli	2.23	0.83	0.35	33.7%	30.3%	15.9%
Kevin Omoruyi	2.19	0.7	0	24.5%	22.1%	0.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Udinese clean sheet	30.4%
Cagliari clean sheet	26.5%
Udinese win to nil	21.7%
Cagliari win to nil	17.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	39.2%	draw	28.1%	away	32.7%

double_chance

1X	67.3%	12	71.9%	X2	60.8%

dnb

home	54.6%	away	45.4%

btts

yes	51.7%	no	48.4%

clean_sheet

home	30.5%	away	26.6%

win_to_nil

home	21.8%	away	17.8%

winning_margin

home_by_1	21.1%	home_by_2	11.7%	home_by_3plus	6.5%
away_by_1	18.8%	away_by_2	9.4%	away_by_3plus	4.5%

correct_score

0-0	8.7%	0-1	9.0%	0-2	5.7%
0-3	2.3%	0-4	0.7%	0-5	0.2%
1-0	10.1%	1-1	13.4%	1-2	7.6%
1-3	3.0%	1-4	0.9%	1-5	0.2%
2-0	7.1%	2-1	8.5%	2-2	5.0%
2-3	2.0%	2-4	0.6%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	3.2%	3-1	3.7%	3-2	2.2%
3-3	0.9%	3-4	0.3%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	1.0%	4-1	1.2%	4-2	0.7%
4-3	0.3%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.3%	5-1	0.3%	5-2	0.2%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.4%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	13.4%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	91.3%	under_0.5	8.7%	over_1.5	72.2%
under_1.5	27.8%	over_2.5	45.9%	under_2.5	54.1%
over_3.5	24.5%	under_3.5	75.5%	over_4.5	11.1%
under_4.5	88.9%	over_5.5	4.3%	under_5.5	95.7%

odd_even

odd	48.4%	even	51.6%

team_home

over_0.5	73.4%	under_0.5	26.6%	over_1.5	38.2%
under_1.5	61.8%	over_2.5	14.9%	under_2.5	85.1%

team_away

over_0.5	69.5%	under_0.5	30.5%	over_1.5	33.3%
under_1.5	66.7%	over_2.5	11.8%	under_2.5	88.2%

most

home	39.2%	draw	28.1%	away	32.7%

handicap

home_-2.5	6.5%	away_+2.5	93.5%	home_-1.5	18.1%
away_+1.5	81.9%	home_-0.5	39.2%	away_+0.5	60.8%
home_+0.5	67.3%	away_-0.5	32.7%	home_+1.5	86.2%
away_-1.5	13.9%	home_+2.5	95.5%	away_-2.5	4.5%

total_exact

exact_0	8.7%	exact_1	19.1%	exact_2	26.2%
exact_3	21.4%	exact_4	13.5%	exact_5	6.8%
exact_6	2.8%	exact_7plus	1.5%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	35.3%	draw	42.9%	away	21.8%

total

over_0.5	67.9%	under_0.5	32.1%	over_1.5	31.4%
under_1.5	68.6%	over_2.5	10.7%	under_2.5	89.3%

btts

yes	18.2%	no	81.8%

total_exact

exact_0	32.1%	exact_1	36.5%	exact_2	20.7%
exact_3	7.9%	exact_4plus	2.9%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	29.4%	draw	38.6%	away	32.0%

total

over_0.5	74.9%	under_0.5	25.1%	over_1.5	40.2%
under_1.5	59.8%	over_2.5	16.2%	under_2.5	83.8%

btts

yes	24.9%	no	75.1%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	26.4%	H/D	6.3%	H/A	2.6%
D/H	12.6%	D/D	16.6%	D/A	13.7%
A/H	1.5%	A/D	3.9%	A/A	16.4%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	62.6%	under_7.5	37.4%	over_8.5	51.3%
under_8.5	48.7%	over_9.5	40.4%	under_9.5	59.6%
over_10.5	30.7%	under_10.5	69.3%	over_11.5	22.5%
under_11.5	77.5%	over_12.5	15.9%	under_12.5	84.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	64.4%	under_3.5	35.6%	over_4.5	49.6%
under_4.5	50.4%	over_5.5	36.1%	under_5.5	63.9%

team_away

over_3.5	53.9%	under_3.5	46.1%	over_4.5	38.4%
under_4.5	61.6%	over_5.5	25.7%	under_5.5	74.3%

most

home	52.2%	draw	10.5%	away	37.4%

handicap

home_-3.5	23.3%	away_+3.5	76.8%	home_-1.5	41.6%
away_+1.5	58.4%	home_-0.5	52.2%	away_+0.5	47.8%
home_+0.5	62.6%	away_-0.5	37.4%	home_+1.5	72.2%
away_-1.5	27.8%	home_+3.5	86.7%	away_-3.5	13.3%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	62.5%	under_22.5	37.5%	over_24.5	50.5%
under_24.5	49.5%	over_26.5	38.8%	under_26.5	61.2%
over_28.5	28.3%	under_28.5	71.7%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	71.3%	under_10.5	28.7%	over_12.5	55.4%
under_12.5	44.6%	over_14.5	39.8%	under_14.5	60.2%

team_away

over_10.5	54.6%	under_10.5	45.4%	over_12.5	37.3%
under_12.5	62.7%	over_14.5	23.2%	under_14.5	76.8%

most

home	59.7%	draw	5.8%	away	34.6%

handicap

home_-4.5	35.7%	away_+4.5	64.3%	home_-2.5	47.6%
away_+2.5	52.4%	home_-0.5	59.7%	away_+0.5	40.4%
home_+0.5	65.5%	away_-0.5	34.6%	home_+2.5	75.9%
away_-2.5	24.1%	home_+4.5	84.3%	away_-4.5	15.7%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	66.0%	under_6.5	34.0%	over_7.5	54.2%
under_7.5	45.8%	over_8.5	42.6%	under_8.5	57.4%
over_9.5	32.2%	under_9.5	67.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	58.3%	under_3.5	41.7%	over_4.5	42.3%
under_4.5	57.7%	over_5.5	28.8%	under_5.5	71.2%

team_away

over_3.5	50.3%	under_3.5	49.7%	over_4.5	34.2%
under_4.5	65.8%	over_5.5	21.7%	under_5.5	78.3%

most

home	49.6%	draw	12.1%	away	38.3%

handicap

home_-2.5	27.0%	away_+2.5	73.0%	home_-0.5	49.6%
away_+0.5	50.4%	home_+0.5	61.7%	away_-0.5	38.3%
home_+2.5	81.7%	away_-2.5	18.3%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	65.9%	under_2.5	34.1%	over_3.5	44.8%
under_3.5	55.2%	over_4.5	26.9%	under_4.5	73.1%
over_5.5	14.3%	under_5.5	85.7%

odd_even

odd	49.9%	even	50.1%

team_home

over_1.5	47.3%	under_1.5	52.7%	over_2.5	22.4%
under_2.5	77.6%

team_away

over_1.5	53.6%	under_1.5	46.4%	over_2.5	28.0%
under_2.5	72.1%

most

home	34.8%	draw	21.9%	away	43.3%

handicap

home_-1.5	17.5%	away_+1.5	82.5%	home_-0.5	34.8%
away_+0.5	65.2%	home_+0.5	56.7%	away_-0.5	43.3%
home_+1.5	76.1%	away_-1.5	23.9%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	75.1%	under_20.5	25.0%	over_22.5	62.9%
under_22.5	37.1%	over_24.5	49.8%	under_24.5	50.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	76.4%	under_9.5	23.6%	over_11.5	59.0%
under_11.5	41.1%	over_13.5	40.9%	under_13.5	59.1%

team_away

over_9.5	70.5%	under_9.5	29.5%	over_11.5	51.6%
under_11.5	48.4%	over_13.5	33.6%	under_13.5	66.4%

most

home	52.0%	draw	6.6%	away	41.4%

handicap

home_-3.5	32.6%	away_+3.5	67.4%	home_-0.5	52.0%
away_+0.5	48.0%	home_+2.5	70.9%	away_-2.5	29.1%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	10.3%	no	89.7%

home

yes	7.4%	no	92.6%

away

yes	3.2%	no	96.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Udinese predictions · Cagliari predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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