Bologna vs Torino: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 16 Sep 2026

Serie A

Bologna

DLLDL

Sat, 19 Sep 202614:00UK

Torino

DLLWL

Model’s top convictions

74%

Bologna or draw

71%

Over 1.5 goals

56%

Under 2.5 goals

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Bologna46.2%

Win probability · fair 2.17

Top signals

Bologna or drawLikely73.7%Fair 1.36

Over 1.5 goalsLikely70.9%Fair 1.41

Under 2.5 goalsClose call55.6%Fair 1.80

Model read

"46% on Bologna is a measurement, not a promise." A measured edge to Bologna: 46% is the model's line for this Serie A meeting on 19 September 2026. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 44% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 50%. The recent series reads 3 wins for Bologna, 2 draws and 0 for Torino over 5 games, 2.0 goals on average. For shots markets, Riccardo Orsolini is the obvious watch at 1.3 on target per 90 in recent data. Recent form reads W1 D2 L3 for Bologna against W1 D1 L4 for Torino. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals44.4%@ 2.25

Over 9.5 corners41.3%@ 2.42

Over 10.5 corners32.5%@ 3.08

Medium risk

Draw or Torino53.8%@ 1.86

Over 8.5 corners51.1%@ 1.96

Not both teams to score50.5%@ 1.98

Random finds

1-1 correct score13.2%@ 7.56

1-0 correct score11.6%@ 8.64

0-0 correct score9.2%@ 10.82

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Bologna

46.2%

Draw

27.6%

Torino

26.3%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely70.9%Fair 1.41

Over 2.5Unlikely44.4%Fair 2.25

BTTS · YesClose call49.5%Fair 2.02

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call51.1%Fair 1.96

Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely41.3%Fair 2.42

Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely32.5%Fair 3.08

Over 11.5 cornersLong shot24.8%Fair 4.03

Most cornersBologna56.8%Torino32.9%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely60.4%Fair 1.66

Over 24.5 shotsClose call48.3%Fair 2.07

Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely36.6%Fair 2.73

Over 28.5 shotsLong shot26.3%Fair 3.81

Recent shot volume

Bologna12.8 taken11.0 faced

Torino9.2 taken16.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Bologna (4 games)

5.8 / 8.2

Torino (4 games)

3.5 / 4.5

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.570.9%2.544.4%3.5·4.5·

Recommended focusOver 1.570.9%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

BolognaDLLDL

TorinoDLLWL

Last 5 meetings: Bologna 3 · 2 draws · Torino 0 · 2.0 goals/game.

2026-02-15Torino 1-2 Bologna

2025-10-29Bologna 0-0 Torino

2025-02-14Bologna 3-2 Torino

2024-12-21Torino 0-2 Bologna

2024-05-03Torino 0-0 Bologna

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Bologna

Torino

League position#16 of 20#14 of 20

Record W-D-L0-1-31-0-3

Current streakL1L1

Record, home vs away0-1-11-0-1

Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.02 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 57% · BTTS in 60%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Riccardo OrsoliniBologna · key player

To score31.6%3.16

1+ on target58.8%1.70

2+ shots67.3%1.49

Shots/90 3.42SoT/90 1.31Goals/90 0.56

Duván ZapataTorino · key player

To score14.1%7.09

1+ on target40.2%2.49

2+ shots35.3%2.83

Shots/90 2.71SoT/90 1.12Goals/90 0.33

Jonathan RoweBologna · in form

To score10.3%9.71

1+ on target42.4%2.36

2+ shots46.6%2.15

Shots/90 3.19SoT/90 1.12Goals/90 0.22

Alieu NjieTorino · in form

To score5.7%17.54

1+ on target25.5%3.92

2+ shots10.9%9.17

Shots/90 2.11SoT/90 1.11Goals/90 0.22

Federico BernardeschiBologna · in form

To score11.3%8.85

1+ on target40.3%2.48

2+ shots41.6%2.40

Shots/90 2.84SoT/90 1.03Goals/90 0.24

Zakaria AboukhlalTorino · in form

To score16.6%6.02

1+ on target46.1%2.17

2+ shots47.1%2.12

Shots/90 2.62SoT/90 1.02Goals/90 0.3

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Bologna win2.21

Draw3.58

Torino win3.73

Both teams to score2.02

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10

Over 1.5 goals1.41

Over 2.5 goals2.25

Over 3.5 goals4.29

Bologna most2.21

Torino most3.73

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.57

Over 8.5 corners1.91

Over 9.5 corners2.40

Over 10.5 corners3.15

Bologna most1.76

Torino most3.04

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.53

Over 3.5 cards2.26

Over 4.5 cards3.79

Over 5.5 cards7.15

Bologna most3.13

Torino most2.16

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.54

Over 7.5 SoT1.89

Over 8.5 SoT2.41

Over 9.5 SoT3.21

Bologna most1.83

Torino most2.99

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.66

Over 24.5 shots2.07

Over 26.5 shots2.73

Over 28.5 shots3.81

Bologna most1.52

Torino most3.46

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.27

Over 22.5 fouls1.48

Over 24.5 fouls1.83

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5	60.4%	Over 24.5	48.3%	Over 26.5	36.6%	Over 28.5	26.2%
Most: Bologna	65.6%	Most: Torino	28.9%
Bologna Over 13.2	50.1%	Torino Over 13.2	24.3%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	64.9%	Over 7.5	53.0%	Over 8.5	41.4%	Over 9.5	31.1%
Most: Bologna	54.6%	Most: Torino	33.5%
Bologna Over 4.2	44.9%	Torino Over 4.2	29.8%

Cards

Over 2.5	65.3%	Over 3.5	44.2%	Over 4.5	26.4%
Most: Bologna	32.0%	Most: Torino	46.2%
Bologna Over 1.8	44.6%	Torino Over 1.8	55.3%

Bologna: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Riccardo Orsolini	3.42	1.31	0.56	58.8%	67.3%	31.6%
Jonathan Rowe	3.19	1.12	0.22	42.4%	46.6%	10.3%
Federico Bernardeschi	2.84	1.03	0.24	40.3%	41.6%	11.3%
Artem Dovbyk	2.44	1.03	0.53	47.6%	45.3%	28.3%
Jens Odgaard	2.23	0.91	0.29	47.2%	46.3%	18.4%

Torino: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Duván Zapata	2.71	1.12	0.33	40.2%	35.3%	14.1%
Alieu Njie	2.11	1.11	0.22	25.5%	10.9%	5.7%
Zakaria Aboukhlal	2.62	1.02	0.3	46.1%	47.1%	16.6%
Giovanni Simeone	3.05	1.01	0.36	39.5%	44.7%	16.4%
Che Adams	2.32	0.87	0.32	46.9%	50.4%	20.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Bologna clean sheet	35.4%
Torino clean sheet	24.2%
Bologna win to nil	26.2%
Torino win to nil	14.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	45.3%	draw	27.9%	away	26.8%

double_chance

1X	73.2%	12	72.1%	X2	54.8%

dnb

home	62.8%	away	37.2%

btts

yes	49.5%	no	50.5%

clean_sheet

home	35.6%	away	24.2%

win_to_nil

home	26.3%	away	14.9%

winning_margin

home_by_1	23.0%	home_by_2	13.8%	home_by_3plus	8.5%
away_by_1	16.6%	away_by_2	7.3%	away_by_3plus	2.9%

correct_score

0-0	9.2%	0-1	8.3%	0-2	4.6%
0-3	1.6%	0-4	0.4%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	11.6%	1-1	13.2%	1-2	6.5%
1-3	2.3%	1-4	0.6%	1-5	0.1%
2-0	8.7%	2-1	9.0%	2-2	4.6%
2-3	1.6%	2-4	0.4%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	4.1%	3-1	4.2%	3-2	2.2%
3-3	0.8%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.0%
4-0	1.5%	4-1	1.5%	4-2	0.8%
4-3	0.3%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.4%	5-1	0.4%	5-2	0.2%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.4%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	13.2%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	90.8%	under_0.5	9.2%	over_1.5	70.9%
under_1.5	29.1%	over_2.5	44.5%	under_2.5	55.6%
over_3.5	23.3%	under_3.5	76.7%	over_4.5	10.3%
under_4.5	89.7%	over_5.5	3.9%	under_5.5	96.1%

odd_even

odd	48.4%	even	51.6%

team_home

over_0.5	75.8%	under_0.5	24.2%	over_1.5	41.5%
under_1.5	58.5%	over_2.5	17.2%	under_2.5	82.8%

team_away

over_0.5	64.4%	under_0.5	35.6%	over_1.5	27.7%
under_1.5	72.3%	over_2.5	8.7%	under_2.5	91.3%

most

home	45.3%	draw	27.9%	away	26.8%

handicap

home_-2.5	8.5%	away_+2.5	91.5%	home_-1.5	22.2%
away_+1.5	77.8%	home_-0.5	45.3%	away_+0.5	54.8%
home_+0.5	73.2%	away_-0.5	26.8%	home_+1.5	89.8%
away_-1.5	10.2%	home_+2.5	97.1%	away_-2.5	2.9%

total_exact

exact_0	9.2%	exact_1	19.8%	exact_2	26.5%
exact_3	21.2%	exact_4	13.0%	exact_5	6.4%
exact_6	2.6%	exact_7plus	1.3%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	33.4%	draw	47.4%	away	19.2%

total

over_0.5	61.4%	under_0.5	38.6%	over_1.5	24.6%
under_1.5	75.4%	over_2.5	7.2%	under_2.5	92.8%

btts

yes	13.7%	no	86.3%

total_exact

exact_0	38.6%	exact_1	36.7%	exact_2	17.5%
exact_3	5.5%	exact_4plus	1.6%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	36.5%	draw	35.2%	away	28.3%

total

over_0.5	79.9%	under_0.5	20.2%	over_1.5	47.6%
under_1.5	52.4%	over_2.5	21.7%	under_2.5	78.3%

btts

yes	30.2%	no	69.9%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	25.7%	H/D	5.4%	H/A	2.2%
D/H	17.3%	D/D	16.7%	D/A	13.4%
A/H	2.1%	A/D	4.1%	A/A	13.0%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	63.7%	under_7.5	36.3%	over_8.5	52.5%
under_8.5	47.5%	over_9.5	41.6%	under_9.5	58.4%
over_10.5	31.8%	under_10.5	68.2%	over_11.5	23.5%
under_11.5	76.6%	over_12.5	16.7%	under_12.5	83.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	68.0%	under_3.5	32.0%	over_4.5	53.7%
under_4.5	46.3%	over_5.5	40.2%	under_5.5	59.9%

team_away

over_3.5	51.0%	under_3.5	49.0%	over_4.5	35.4%
under_4.5	64.6%	over_5.5	23.1%	under_5.5	76.9%

most

home	57.0%	draw	10.1%	away	32.9%

handicap

home_-3.5	27.3%	away_+3.5	72.7%	home_-1.5	46.4%
away_+1.5	53.6%	home_-0.5	57.0%	away_+0.5	43.1%
home_+0.5	67.1%	away_-0.5	32.9%	home_+1.5	76.0%
away_-1.5	24.0%	home_+3.5	89.1%	away_-3.5	11.0%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	60.4%	under_22.5	39.6%	over_24.5	48.3%
under_24.5	51.7%	over_26.5	36.6%	under_26.5	63.4%
over_28.5	26.3%	under_28.5	73.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	73.4%	under_10.5	26.7%	over_12.5	58.0%
under_12.5	42.0%	over_14.5	42.4%	under_14.5	57.7%

team_away

over_10.5	48.3%	under_10.5	51.7%	over_12.5	31.3%
under_12.5	68.7%	over_14.5	18.4%	under_14.5	81.6%

most

home	65.6%	draw	5.5%	away	28.9%

handicap

home_-4.5	41.4%	away_+4.5	58.6%	home_-2.5	53.7%
away_+2.5	46.3%	home_-0.5	65.6%	away_+0.5	34.4%
home_+0.5	71.1%	away_-0.5	28.9%	home_+2.5	80.7%
away_-2.5	19.3%	home_+4.5	88.0%	away_-4.5	12.0%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	64.9%	under_6.5	35.1%	over_7.5	53.0%
under_7.5	47.0%	over_8.5	41.4%	under_8.5	58.6%
over_9.5	31.1%	under_9.5	68.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	60.7%	under_3.5	39.3%	over_4.5	44.9%
under_4.5	55.1%	over_5.5	31.2%	under_5.5	68.8%

team_away

over_3.5	45.7%	under_3.5	54.3%	over_4.5	29.8%
under_4.5	70.2%	over_5.5	18.1%	under_5.5	81.9%

most

home	54.6%	draw	11.9%	away	33.5%

handicap

home_-2.5	31.1%	away_+2.5	68.9%	home_-0.5	54.6%
away_+0.5	45.4%	home_+0.5	66.6%	away_-0.5	33.5%
home_+2.5	85.1%	away_-2.5	14.9%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	65.4%	under_2.5	34.7%	over_3.5	44.3%
under_3.5	55.8%	over_4.5	26.4%	under_4.5	73.6%
over_5.5	14.0%	under_5.5	86.0%

odd_even

odd	49.9%	even	50.1%

team_home

over_1.5	44.6%	under_1.5	55.4%	over_2.5	20.3%
under_2.5	79.7%

team_away

over_1.5	55.3%	under_1.5	44.8%	over_2.5	29.5%
under_2.5	70.5%

most

home	32.0%	draw	21.8%	away	46.2%

handicap

home_-1.5	15.5%	away_+1.5	84.5%	home_-0.5	32.0%
away_+0.5	68.0%	home_+0.5	53.8%	away_-0.5	46.2%
home_+1.5	73.9%	away_-1.5	26.2%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	78.8%	under_20.5	21.2%	over_22.5	67.5%
under_22.5	32.5%	over_24.5	54.8%	under_24.5	45.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	68.7%	under_9.5	31.3%	over_11.5	49.5%
under_11.5	50.5%	over_13.5	31.7%	under_13.5	68.3%

team_away

over_9.5	82.4%	under_9.5	17.7%	over_11.5	67.2%
under_11.5	32.8%	over_13.5	49.8%	under_13.5	50.2%

most

home	34.2%	draw	6.2%	away	59.6%

handicap

home_-3.5	18.4%	away_+3.5	81.6%	home_-0.5	34.2%
away_+0.5	65.9%	home_+2.5	53.4%	away_-2.5	46.6%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	7.6%	no	92.5%

home

yes	3.0%	no	97.0%

away

yes	4.7%	no	95.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Bologna predictions · Torino predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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