Shots

Over 22.5	61.9%	Over 24.5	49.9%	Over 26.5	38.3%	Over 28.5	27.8%
Most: Fiorentina	58.7%	Most: Napoli	35.4%
Fiorentina Over 13.2	46.4%	Napoli Over 13.2	30.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	64.5%	Over 7.5	52.5%	Over 8.5	41.0%	Over 9.5	30.7%
Most: Fiorentina	44.9%	Most: Napoli	42.7%
Fiorentina Over 4.2	37.9%	Napoli Over 4.2	36.4%

Cards

Over 2.5	67.2%	Over 3.5	46.3%	Over 4.5	28.2%
Most: Fiorentina	38.5%	Most: Napoli	39.7%
Fiorentina Over 1.8	51.1%	Napoli Over 1.8	52.0%

Fiorentina: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Moise Kean	3.84	1.49	0.5	73.1%	85.2%	35.7%
Beto	2.81	1.17	0.49	45.6%	43.0%	22.5%
Alieu Njie	2.11	1.11	0.22	25.5%	10.9%	5.7%
Franco Mastantuono	3.27	0.95	0.27	40.3%	53.0%	13.7%
Albert Gudmundsson	1.82	0.76	0.29	40.3%	35.0%	17.9%

Napoli: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Alisson Santos	3.28	1.51	0.35	63.3%	64.0%	20.7%
Lorenzo Lucca	2.84	1.08	0.44	44.7%	46.1%	21.4%
Scott McTominay	2.74	1.04	0.34	63.2%	73.9%	27.9%
Kevin De Bruyne	2.51	0.8	0.3	40.5%	48.5%	17.7%
Rasmus Højlund	1.74	0.72	0.33	44.8%	42.1%	23.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Fiorentina clean sheet	23.2%
Napoli clean sheet	35.1%
Fiorentina win to nil	14.4%
Napoli win to nil	26.3%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	26.3%	draw	27.5%	away	46.2%

double_chance

1X	53.8%	12	72.5%	X2	73.7%

dnb

home	36.3%	away	63.7%

btts

yes	50.3%	no	49.7%

clean_sheet

home	23.2%	away	35.3%

win_to_nil

home	14.4%	away	26.5%

winning_margin

home_by_1	16.3%	home_by_2	7.2%	home_by_3plus	2.9%
away_by_1	23.0%	away_by_2	14.1%	away_by_3plus	9.1%

correct_score

0-0	8.8%	0-1	11.3%	0-2	8.7%
0-3	4.3%	0-4	1.6%	0-5	0.5%
1-0	7.9%	1-1	13.0%	1-2	9.1%
1-3	4.4%	1-4	1.6%	1-5	0.5%
2-0	4.5%	2-1	6.5%	2-2	4.7%
2-3	2.3%	2-4	0.9%	2-5	0.3%
3-0	1.6%	3-1	2.3%	3-2	1.6%
3-3	0.8%	3-4	0.3%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	0.4%	4-1	0.6%	4-2	0.4%
4-3	0.2%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.1%	5-1	0.1%	5-2	0.1%
5-3	0.0%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.5%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	13.0%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	91.2%	under_0.5	8.8%	over_1.5	72.0%
under_1.5	28.0%	over_2.5	45.8%	under_2.5	54.2%
over_3.5	24.4%	under_3.5	75.6%	over_4.5	11.0%
under_4.5	89.0%	over_5.5	4.3%	under_5.5	95.7%

odd_even

odd	48.4%	even	51.6%

team_home

over_0.5	64.7%	under_0.5	35.3%	over_1.5	28.0%
under_1.5	72.0%	over_2.5	8.8%	under_2.5	91.2%

team_away

over_0.5	76.8%	under_0.5	23.2%	over_1.5	43.0%
under_1.5	57.0%	over_2.5	18.3%	under_2.5	81.7%

most

home	26.3%	draw	27.5%	away	46.2%

handicap

home_-2.5	2.9%	away_+2.5	97.1%	home_-1.5	10.1%
away_+1.5	89.9%	home_-0.5	26.3%	away_+0.5	73.7%
home_+0.5	53.8%	away_-0.5	46.2%	home_+1.5	76.8%
away_-1.5	23.2%	home_+2.5	90.9%	away_-2.5	9.1%

total_exact

exact_0	8.8%	exact_1	19.2%	exact_2	26.2%
exact_3	21.4%	exact_4	13.4%	exact_5	6.7%
exact_6	2.8%	exact_7plus	1.5%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	20.6%	draw	42.2%	away	37.3%

total

over_0.5	68.7%	under_0.5	31.3%	over_1.5	32.3%
under_1.5	67.7%	over_2.5	11.2%	under_2.5	88.8%

btts

yes	18.4%	no	81.6%

total_exact

exact_0	31.3%	exact_1	36.4%	exact_2	21.1%
exact_3	8.2%	exact_4plus	3.1%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	22.9%	draw	37.3%	away	39.9%

total

over_0.5	76.0%	under_0.5	24.0%	over_1.5	41.7%
under_1.5	58.3%	over_2.5	17.3%	under_2.5	82.7%

btts

yes	25.0%	no	75.0%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	13.5%	H/D	4.7%	H/A	2.4%
D/H	9.7%	D/D	15.7%	D/A	16.8%
A/H	1.5%	A/D	4.9%	A/A	30.8%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	63.0%	under_7.5	37.0%	over_8.5	51.7%
under_8.5	48.3%	over_9.5	40.8%	under_9.5	59.2%
over_10.5	31.1%	under_10.5	69.0%	over_11.5	22.8%
under_11.5	77.2%	over_12.5	16.2%	under_12.5	83.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	64.5%	under_3.5	35.5%	over_4.5	49.6%
under_4.5	50.4%	over_5.5	36.2%	under_5.5	63.8%

team_away

over_3.5	54.4%	under_3.5	45.6%	over_4.5	38.9%
under_4.5	61.1%	over_5.5	26.1%	under_5.5	73.9%

most

home	51.9%	draw	10.5%	away	37.7%

handicap

home_-3.5	23.1%	away_+3.5	76.9%	home_-1.5	41.4%
away_+1.5	58.6%	home_-0.5	51.9%	away_+0.5	48.1%
home_+0.5	62.3%	away_-0.5	37.7%	home_+1.5	71.9%
away_-1.5	28.1%	home_+3.5	86.5%	away_-3.5	13.5%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	61.9%	under_22.5	38.1%	over_24.5	49.9%
under_24.5	50.1%	over_26.5	38.3%	under_26.5	61.7%
over_28.5	27.8%	under_28.5	72.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	70.4%	under_10.5	29.6%	over_12.5	54.4%
under_12.5	45.6%	over_14.5	38.8%	under_14.5	61.3%

team_away

over_10.5	54.9%	under_10.5	45.1%	over_12.5	37.6%
under_12.5	62.4%	over_14.5	23.5%	under_14.5	76.5%

most

home	58.7%	draw	5.9%	away	35.4%

handicap

home_-4.5	34.8%	away_+4.5	65.2%	home_-2.5	46.6%
away_+2.5	53.4%	home_-0.5	58.7%	away_+0.5	41.3%
home_+0.5	64.6%	away_-0.5	35.4%	home_+2.5	75.2%
away_-2.5	24.8%	home_+4.5	83.8%	away_-4.5	16.2%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	64.5%	under_6.5	35.5%	over_7.5	52.6%
under_7.5	47.4%	over_8.5	41.0%	under_8.5	59.0%
over_9.5	30.7%	under_9.5	69.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	54.1%	under_3.5	45.9%	over_4.5	38.0%
under_4.5	62.1%	over_5.5	24.9%	under_5.5	75.1%

team_away

over_3.5	52.6%	under_3.5	47.4%	over_4.5	36.4%
under_4.5	63.6%	over_5.5	23.5%	under_5.5	76.4%

most

home	44.9%	draw	12.4%	away	42.7%

handicap

home_-2.5	23.0%	away_+2.5	77.0%	home_-0.5	44.9%
away_+0.5	55.1%	home_+0.5	57.3%	away_-0.5	42.7%
home_+2.5	78.7%	away_-2.5	21.3%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	67.2%	under_2.5	32.8%	over_3.5	46.3%
under_3.5	53.7%	over_4.5	28.2%	under_4.5	71.8%
over_5.5	15.3%	under_5.5	84.7%

odd_even

odd	49.9%	even	50.1%

team_home

over_1.5	51.1%	under_1.5	48.9%	over_2.5	25.7%
under_2.5	74.3%

team_away

over_1.5	52.0%	under_1.5	48.0%	over_2.5	26.5%
under_2.5	73.5%

most

home	38.5%	draw	21.7%	away	39.7%

handicap

home_-1.5	20.4%	away_+1.5	79.6%	home_-0.5	38.5%
away_+0.5	61.5%	home_+0.5	60.3%	away_-0.5	39.7%
home_+1.5	78.7%	away_-1.5	21.3%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	72.2%	under_20.5	27.8%	over_22.5	59.5%
under_22.5	40.5%	over_24.5	46.2%	under_24.5	53.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	66.0%	under_9.5	34.0%	over_11.5	46.4%
under_11.5	53.6%	over_13.5	28.9%	under_13.5	71.1%

team_away

over_9.5	76.3%	under_9.5	23.7%	over_11.5	58.9%
under_11.5	41.1%	over_13.5	40.8%	under_13.5	59.2%

most

home	38.0%	draw	6.6%	away	55.5%

handicap

home_-3.5	20.8%	away_+3.5	79.2%	home_-0.5	38.0%
away_+0.5	62.1%	home_+2.5	58.0%	away_-2.5	42.0%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	11.7%	no	88.3%

home

yes	6.7%	no	93.3%

away

yes	5.4%	no	94.6%