Serie A
Fiorentina vs 
Napoli Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 46.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 67.2% for over 2.5 to 15.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.3%. Head to head on cards, Napoli are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.7%, with a level count at 21.7%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 28.2% | 71.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.3% | 84.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
51.1%
25.7%
52.0%
26.5%
Card handicap
| Fiorentina line | Fiorentina | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.4% | 79.6% |
| -0.5 | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| +0.5 | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| +1.5 | 78.7% | 21.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 46.2% | 53.8% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Fiorentina vs Napoli. It tips Napoli for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
46.3%Over 3.5 cards11.7%Any red card51.1%Fiorentina over 1.5 cards52.0%Napoli over 1.5 cards59.5%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Fiorentina over 1.5 cards sits at 51.1% and Napoli at 52.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.7% (Fiorentina 6.7%, Napoli 5.4%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Fiorentina vs Napoli?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 46.3% for Fiorentina vs Napoli.
Will there be a red card in Fiorentina vs Napoli?
The model rates a red card for either side at 11.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Fiorentina vs Napoli?
The model rates Napoli to pick up more cards at 39.7%, with a level count at 21.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,167 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.