Frosinone vs Como: model prediction
Serie A
FrosinoneLLWWD
ComoWDWWW
Draw or Como
Over 1.5 goals
Not both teams to score
Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"When model and market disagree on Como, that gap is the story." The numbers leave little room for romance here: Como at 65% against Frosinone, Serie A, 20 September 2026. Totals sit close to the fence: 51% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 48%. Romano Schmid drives the home shot volume, 0.5 on target per 90. Form guide over the last six: Frosinone W3 D1 L2, Como W5 D1 L0. Fatigue may matter, with Como 3 days shorter on recovery than Frosinone. Frosinone are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The forecast adds a wrinkle: 30 degrees of heat. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
13.0%
21.6%
65.4%
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
4.8 / 10.5
11.5 / 10.8
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
Totals line guide
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
FrosinoneComoLeague averages this season: 3.02 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 57% · BTTS in 60%. Full league tables & stats →
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 7.81
@ 2.48
@ 2.21
@ 2.75
@ 1.37
@ 1.17
@ 52.63
@ 4.44
@ 6.06
@ 4.33
@ 1.42
@ 1.17
@ ·
@ 7.14
@ 20.41
@ 3.91
@ 2.01
@ 2.30
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 63.1% | Over 24.5 | 51.2% | Over 26.5 | 39.5% | Over 28.5 | 29.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Frosinone | 53.1% | Most: Como | 41.0% | ||||
| Frosinone Over 13.2 | 43.3% | Como Over 13.2 | 34.8% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 67.3% | Over 7.5 | 55.7% | Over 8.5 | 44.1% | Over 9.5 | 33.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Frosinone | 43.0% | Most: Como | 44.9% | ||||
| Frosinone Over 4.2 | 38.7% | Como Over 4.2 | 40.1% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 74.1% | Over 3.5 | 54.8% | Over 4.5 | 36.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Frosinone | 35.4% | Most: Como | 44.4% | ||
| Frosinone Over 1.8 | 54.2% | Como Over 1.8 | 60.6% |
Frosinone: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romano Schmid | 1.57 | 0.53 | 0.14 | 40.4% | 45.2% | 12.8% |
| Alessio Zerbin | 1.11 | 0.39 | 0.03 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 1.9% |
| Florian Grillitsch | 0.58 | 0.25 | 0 | 14.0% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Patrizio Masini | 0.81 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 8.2% | 8.9% | 1.8% |
Como: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moise Kean | 3.84 | 1.48 | 0.51 | 73.0% | 85.3% | 36.3% |
| Nico Paz | 3.74 | 1.35 | 0.29 | 70.6% | 85.3% | 23.1% |
| Tasos Douvikas | 2.6 | 1.21 | 0.52 | 49.8% | 43.5% | 25.6% |
| Assane Diao | 2.29 | 0.87 | 0.42 | 45.9% | 48.0% | 25.6% |
| Jesús Rodriguez | 2.3 | 0.63 | 0.12 | 32.0% | 41.2% | 7.1% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Frosinone clean sheet | 15.4% |
|---|---|
| Como clean sheet | 42.8% |
| Frosinone win to nil | 8.2% |
| Como win to nil | 35.6% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 15.7% | draw | 23.0% | away | 61.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 38.7% | 12 | 77.0% | X2 | 84.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 20.4% | away | 79.6% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 48.4% | no | 51.6% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 15.4% | away | 43.4% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 8.2% | away | 36.2% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 10.7% | home_by_2 | 3.8% | home_by_3plus | 1.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 24.6% | away_by_2 | 19.1% | away_by_3plus | 17.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.2% | 0-1 | 12.0% | 0-2 | 11.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 7.3% | 0-4 | 3.4% | 0-5 | 1.3% |
| 1-0 | 5.1% | 1-1 | 11.0% | 1-2 | 9.8% |
| 1-3 | 6.1% | 1-4 | 2.9% | 1-5 | 1.1% |
| 2-0 | 2.3% | 2-1 | 4.4% | 2-2 | 4.1% |
| 2-3 | 2.5% | 2-4 | 1.2% | 2-5 | 0.4% |
| 3-0 | 0.7% | 3-1 | 1.2% | 3-2 | 1.1% |
| 3-3 | 0.7% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.1% | 4-1 | 0.3% | 4-2 | 0.2% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.0% | 5-1 | 0.0% | 5-2 | 0.0% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 0.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.8% | under_0.5 | 7.2% | over_1.5 | 75.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 24.2% | over_2.5 | 50.8% | under_2.5 | 49.2% |
| over_3.5 | 28.8% | under_3.5 | 71.2% | over_4.5 | 13.8% |
| under_4.5 | 86.2% | over_5.5 | 5.7% | under_5.5 | 94.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 56.7% | under_0.5 | 43.4% | over_1.5 | 20.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 79.6% | over_2.5 | 5.3% | under_2.5 | 94.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 84.6% | under_0.5 | 15.4% | over_1.5 | 55.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 44.2% | over_2.5 | 28.9% | under_2.5 | 71.1% |
most
| home | 15.7% | draw | 23.0% | away | 61.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 1.2% | away_+2.5 | 98.8% | home_-1.5 | 5.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 95.0% | home_-0.5 | 15.7% | away_+0.5 | 84.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 38.7% | away_-0.5 | 61.3% | home_+1.5 | 63.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 36.7% | home_+2.5 | 82.4% | away_-2.5 | 17.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.2% | exact_1 | 17.0% | exact_2 | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.1% | exact_4 | 14.9% | exact_5 | 8.1% |
| exact_6 | 3.7% | exact_7plus | 2.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 29.7% | draw | 40.2% | away | 30.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 72.5% | under_0.5 | 27.5% | over_1.5 | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.0% | over_2.5 | 14.1% | under_2.5 | 86.0% |
btts
| yes | 22.6% | no | 77.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 27.5% | exact_1 | 35.5% | exact_2 | 22.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 9.9% | exact_4plus | 4.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 19.2% | draw | 37.4% | away | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.8% | under_0.5 | 25.2% | over_1.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.0% | over_2.5 | 16.1% | under_2.5 | 83.9% |
btts
| yes | 22.7% | no | 77.3% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 19.2% | H/D | 6.8% | H/A | 3.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 7.7% | D/D | 15.0% | D/A | 17.5% |
| A/H | 0.9% | A/D | 3.5% | A/A | 25.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 63.5% | under_7.5 | 36.5% | over_8.5 | 52.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 47.7% | over_9.5 | 41.4% | under_9.5 | 58.6% |
| over_10.5 | 31.6% | under_10.5 | 68.4% | over_11.5 | 23.3% |
| under_11.5 | 76.7% | over_12.5 | 16.6% | under_12.5 | 83.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 63.8% | under_3.5 | 36.2% | over_4.5 | 48.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.2% | over_5.5 | 35.4% | under_5.5 | 64.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 56.1% | under_3.5 | 43.9% | over_4.5 | 40.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.4% | over_5.5 | 27.7% | under_5.5 | 72.3% |
most
| home | 50.2% | draw | 10.5% | away | 39.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.0% | away_+3.5 | 78.0% | home_-1.5 | 39.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 60.2% | home_-0.5 | 50.2% | away_+0.5 | 49.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 60.7% | away_-0.5 | 39.3% | home_+1.5 | 70.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 29.6% | home_+3.5 | 85.4% | away_-3.5 | 14.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 63.1% | under_22.5 | 36.9% | over_24.5 | 51.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 48.8% | over_26.5 | 39.5% | under_26.5 | 60.5% |
| over_28.5 | 29.0% | under_28.5 | 71.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 67.8% | under_10.5 | 32.2% | over_12.5 | 51.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 48.6% | over_14.5 | 35.8% | under_14.5 | 64.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 59.9% | under_10.5 | 40.2% | over_12.5 | 42.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 57.3% | over_14.5 | 27.8% | under_14.5 | 72.2% |
most
| home | 53.1% | draw | 6.0% | away | 40.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 29.8% | away_+4.5 | 70.3% | home_-2.5 | 41.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 59.0% | home_-0.5 | 53.1% | away_+0.5 | 46.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 59.1% | away_-0.5 | 40.9% | home_+2.5 | 70.3% |
| away_-2.5 | 29.7% | home_+4.5 | 79.9% | away_-4.5 | 20.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 67.3% | under_6.5 | 32.7% | over_7.5 | 55.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 44.4% | over_8.5 | 44.1% | under_8.5 | 55.9% |
| over_9.5 | 33.7% | under_9.5 | 66.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 54.8% | under_3.5 | 45.2% | over_4.5 | 38.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 61.3% | over_5.5 | 25.5% | under_5.5 | 74.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 56.2% | under_3.5 | 43.8% | over_4.5 | 40.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.9% | over_5.5 | 26.8% | under_5.5 | 73.2% |
most
| home | 43.0% | draw | 12.1% | away | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 21.9% | away_+2.5 | 78.1% | home_-0.5 | 43.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 57.0% | home_+0.5 | 55.1% | away_-0.5 | 45.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 76.6% | away_-2.5 | 23.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 74.1% | under_2.5 | 25.9% | over_3.5 | 54.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 45.2% | over_4.5 | 36.2% | under_4.5 | 63.8% |
| over_5.5 | 21.4% | under_5.5 | 78.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 54.3% | under_1.5 | 45.8% | over_2.5 | 28.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 71.5% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 60.6% | under_1.5 | 39.4% | over_2.5 | 34.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.2% |
most
| home | 35.4% | draw | 20.2% | away | 44.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 19.0% | away_+1.5 | 81.0% | home_-0.5 | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 64.6% | home_+0.5 | 55.6% | away_-0.5 | 44.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 74.0% | away_-1.5 | 26.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 76.7% | under_20.5 | 23.3% | over_22.5 | 64.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 35.2% | over_24.5 | 51.9% | under_24.5 | 48.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 73.8% | under_9.5 | 26.2% | over_11.5 | 55.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 44.3% | over_13.5 | 37.6% | under_13.5 | 62.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 75.5% | under_9.5 | 24.5% | over_11.5 | 57.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 42.1% | over_13.5 | 39.8% | under_13.5 | 60.2% |
most
| home | 45.1% | draw | 6.6% | away | 48.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.8% | away_+3.5 | 73.2% | home_-0.5 | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 54.9% | home_+2.5 | 64.6% | away_-2.5 | 35.4% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 18.3% | no | 81.7% |
|---|
home
| yes | 7.4% | no | 92.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 11.8% | no | 88.2% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).
More: Frosinone predictions · Como predictions · Serie A
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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