Eredivisie
Feyenoord vs 
Utrecht Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 64.4%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 74.5% for over 22.5 to 42.3% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.4%. On the shot count, Feyenoord are the model’s pick to have more shots at 62.1%, with a level count at 5.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 74.5% | 25.6% |
| 24.5 shots | 64.4% | 35.7% |
| 26.5 shots | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 42.3% | 57.7% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
79.6%
66.6%
52.2%
62.0%
45.7%
31.1%
Shot handicap
| Feyenoord line | Feyenoord | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| -2.5 | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| -0.5 | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| +0.5 | 67.3% | 32.7% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 85.5% | 14.5% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 77.3% | 22.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 57.1% | 42.9% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
22.2Feyenoord shots per game10.2Feyenoord shots faced per game11.7Utrecht shots per game17.8Utrecht shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Feyenoord.
In-depth analysis
64.4%Over 24.5 shots66.6%Feyenoord over 12.5 shots45.7%Utrecht over 12.5 shots77.3%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Feyenoord over 12.5 shots sits at 66.6% and Utrecht at 45.7%. This season Feyenoord have averaged 22.2 shots a game and Utrecht 11.7.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 64.4% for Feyenoord vs Utrecht.
Which team will have more shots in Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
The model rates Feyenoord to take more shots at 62.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,756 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
