AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
FC KolnFC KolnLDLWL
Full time0-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1014:30UK12°C · Cloudy
Schalke 04Schalke 04DWDLL

FC Koln 0-0 Schalke 04 cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.7%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.3%

Result

FC Koln0-0Schalke 04
5 yellow cardsFC Koln 2, Schalke 04 3
0 red cardsFC Koln 0, Schalke 04 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 50.7% and it missed (5 in the match). We called No at 79.7% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards49.3%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Harm Osmers

Recorded match referee.

Harm Osmers in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 20 5
Goals 2.95 2.60
Yellow cards 4.45 3.40
Red cards 0.15 0.20
Corners 9.6 10.8
Fouls 20.2 19.8
Both teams scored 55% 60%
Over 2.5 goals 60% 60%
Home wins 60% 20%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 FC Koln vs Schalke 04 0-0 0 No 5 0 11 20
10 Oct 2026 Hoffenheim vs Hamburg 2-3 5 Yes 1 1 10 27
12 Sep 2026 Dortmund vs Paderborn 3-0 3 No 2 0 10 18
5 Sep 2026 Dresden vs Bochum2. Bundesliga 1-2 3 Yes 8 0 12 25
9 Aug 2026 St Pauli vs Greuther Furth2. Bundesliga 1-1 2 Yes 1 0 11 9
17 May 2026 Greuther Furth vs Fortuna Dusseldorf2. Bundesliga 3-0 3 No 9 0 5 22
25 Apr 2026 Augsburg vs Ein Frankfurt 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 16 24
4 Apr 2026 Hoffenheim vs Mainz 1-2 3 Yes 5 0 10 16
14 Mar 2026 Ein Frankfurt vs Heidenheim 1-0 1 No 5 1 9 14
21 Feb 2026 Union Berlin vs Leverkusen 1-0 1 No 7 0 9 22

Harm Osmers referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for FC Koln vs Schalke 04. The model leans toward FC Koln for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 70.4% 29.6%
3.5 cards 49.3% 50.7%
4.5 cards 30.1% 69.9%
5.5 cards 16.1% 83.9%

Who picks up more cards

FC Koln
39.2%
Level
21.8%
Schalke 04
39.0%

Team cards lines

FC Koln

Over 1.5
54.4%
Over 2.5
27.5%

Schalke 04

Over 1.5
54.2%
Over 2.5
27.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is FC Koln's; Schalke 04 gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

FC Koln line FC Koln Schalke 04
-1.5 20.7% 79.3%
-0.5 39.2% 60.8%
+0.5 61.1% 39.0%
+1.5 79.5% 20.5%

Red card

Any red card20.3%
FC Koln red card10.7%
Schalke 04 red card10.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 47.9% 52.1%
22.5 fouls 35.5% 64.5%
24.5 fouls 24.9% 75.1%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
FC Koln Florian Badstubner 2 3.0 0.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

FC KolnFC Koln

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means FC Koln at home and Schalke 04 away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Schalke 04Schalke 04
Statistic
FC Koln
Schalke 04
Yellow cards per game
1.8
1.0

Matches with card data
3
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 49.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 70.4% for over 2.5 to 16.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.3%. On the card count, FC Koln are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.2%, with a level count at 21.8%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, FC Koln over 1.5 cards sits at 54.4% and Schalke 04 at 54.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 20.3% (FC Koln 10.7%, Schalke 04 10.8%). FC Koln’s most frequent referee this season, Florian Badstubner, has averaged 3.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

49.3%Over 3.5 cards
20.3%Any red card
39.2%Most cards: FC Koln
54.4%FC Koln over 1.5 cards
54.2%Schalke 04 over 1.5 cards
35.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 49.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherFlorian Badstubner, FC Koln’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 20.3%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianFC Koln are the pick to collect more cards at 39.2%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
FC KolnFC Koln

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Schalke 04Schalke 04
Statistic
FC Koln
Schalke 04
fouls per game
10.0
8.8

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in FC Koln vs Schalke 04?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 49.3% for FC Koln vs Schalke 04.
Will there be a red card in FC Koln vs Schalke 04?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 20.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in FC Koln vs Schalke 04?
Before kickoff, the model rated FC Koln to pick up more cards at 39.2%, with a level count at 21.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

BundesligaFC Koln fixtures and statsSchalke 04 fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.