AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Süper Lig
EyupsporEyupsporLLLLL
Full time0-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1011:30UK
KasimpasaKasimpasaDWDLW

Eyupspor 0-1 Kasimpasa cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined64.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined35.4%

Result

Eyupspor0-1Kasimpasa
2 yellow cardsEyupspor 0, Kasimpasa 2
Over 3.5

We called Over 3.5 at 64.6% and it missed (2 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards64.6%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Alper Akarsu

Recorded match referee.

Alper Akarsu in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 16 3
Goals 2.62 Not available
Yellow cards 3.62 Not available
Red cards 0.12 Not available
Corners 9.4 Not available
Fouls 25.4 Not available
Both teams scored 56% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 63% Not available
Home wins 25% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Eyupspor vs Kasimpasa 0-1 1 No 2 0 11 33
18 Oct 2026 Kocaelispor vs Goztep 1-2 3 Yes 4 0 6 38
19 Sep 2026 Corum vs Alanyaspor 1-2 3 Yes 5 0 6 30
19 Apr 2026 Trabzonspor vs Buyuksehyr 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 13 23
8 Apr 2026 Goztep vs Galatasaray 1-3 4 Yes 1 0 6 22
1 Mar 2026 Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahce 2-2 4 Yes 0 0 17 21
15 Feb 2026 Goztep vs Kayserispor 0-0 0 No 3 0 9 23
7 Feb 2026 Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor 0-3 3 No 3 0 9 26
2 Feb 2026 Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahce 0-2 2 No 5 0 11 31
21 Dec 2025 Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa 3-0 3 No 3 0 11 24

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Eyupspor vs Kasimpasa. It tips Kasimpasa for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 81.8% 18.2%
3.5 cards 64.6% 35.4%
4.5 cards 45.5% 54.5%
5.5 cards 28.5% 71.5%

Who picks up more cards

Eyupspor
37.0%
Level
19.5%
Kasimpasa
43.5%

Team cards lines

Eyupspor

Over 1.5
62.7%
Over 2.5
35.8%

Kasimpasa

Over 1.5
67.0%
Over 2.5
40.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Eyupspor's; Kasimpasa gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Eyupspor line Eyupspor Kasimpasa
-1.5 20.5% 79.5%
-0.5 37.0% 63.0%
+0.5 56.5% 43.5%
+1.5 74.4% 25.6%

Red card

Any red card25.6%
Eyupspor red card13.5%
Kasimpasa red card14.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 88.6% 11.4%
22.5 fouls 79.4% 20.6%
24.5 fouls 67.1% 32.9%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Kasimpasa H. U. Meler 2 5.5 2.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

EyupsporEyupspor

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Eyupspor at home and Kasimpasa away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

KasimpasaKasimpasa
Statistic
Eyupspor
Kasimpasa
Yellow cards per game
1.5
2.8

First-half yellow cards per game
0.3
·

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.2
·

Matches with card data
3
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 64.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 81.8% for over 2.5 to 28.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.5%. Between the two sides, Kasimpasa are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.5%, with a level count at 19.5%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Eyupspor over 1.5 cards sits at 62.7% and Kasimpasa at 67.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 25.6% (Eyupspor 13.5%, Kasimpasa 14.1%). Kasimpasa’s most frequent referee this season, H. U. Meler, has averaged 5.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

64.6%Over 3.5 cards
25.6%Any red card
43.5%Most cards: Kasimpasa
62.7%Eyupspor over 1.5 cards
67.0%Kasimpasa over 1.5 cards
79.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 64.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherH. U. Meler, Kasimpasa’s most frequent referee this season, averages 5.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 25.6%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianKasimpasa are the pick to collect more cards at 43.5%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
EyupsporEyupspor

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

KasimpasaKasimpasa
Statistic
Eyupspor
Kasimpasa
fouls per game
12.7
14.4

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Eyupspor vs Kasimpasa?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 64.6% for Eyupspor vs Kasimpasa.
Will there be a red card in Eyupspor vs Kasimpasa?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 25.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Eyupspor vs Kasimpasa?
Before kickoff, the model rated Kasimpasa to pick up more cards at 43.5%, with a level count at 19.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Süper LigEyupspor fixtures and statsKasimpasa fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.