AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Süper Lig
ErzurumsporErzurumsporLWDWW
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1010:30UK
CorumCorumWLWWL

Erzurumspor vs Corum cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined57.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined42.3%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards57.8%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Erzurumspor vs Corum. Slightly more cards are projected for Corum for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 77.0% 23.0%
3.5 cards 57.8% 42.3%
4.5 cards 38.2% 61.8%
5.5 cards 22.4% 77.6%

Who picks up more cards

Erzurumspor
30.5%
Level
20.0%
Corum
49.5%

Team cards lines

Erzurumspor

Over 1.5
53.1%
Over 2.5
26.4%

Corum

Over 1.5
66.4%
Over 2.5
39.8%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Erzurumspor's; Corum gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Erzurumspor line Erzurumspor Corum
-1.5 15.2% 84.8%
-0.5 30.5% 69.5%
+0.5 50.5% 49.5%
+1.5 70.1% 29.9%

Red card

Any red card6.3%
Erzurumspor red card1.6%
Corum red card4.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 80.2% 19.9%
22.5 fouls 67.4% 32.6%
24.5 fouls 52.8% 47.2%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Corum D. Celik 2 3.5 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

ErzurumsporErzurumspor

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Erzurumspor at home and Corum away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

CorumCorum
Statistic
Erzurumspor
Corum
Yellow cards per game
1.2
2.1

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
1.1

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.7
1.1

Matches with card data
0
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 57.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 77.0% for over 2.5 to 22.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.8%. On the card count, Corum are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.5%, with a level count at 20.0%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Erzurumspor over 1.5 cards sits at 53.1% and Corum at 66.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 6.3% (Erzurumspor 1.6%, Corum 4.7%). Corum’s most frequent referee this season, D. Celik, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

57.8%Over 3.5 cards
6.3%Any red card
49.5%Most cards: Corum
53.1%Erzurumspor over 1.5 cards
66.4%Corum over 1.5 cards
67.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 57.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherD. Celik, Corum’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 6.3%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianCorum are the pick to collect more cards at 49.5%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
ErzurumsporErzurumspor

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

CorumCorum
Statistic
Erzurumspor
Corum
fouls per game
11.8
13.6

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Erzurumspor vs Corum?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 57.8% for Erzurumspor vs Corum.
Will there be a red card in Erzurumspor vs Corum?
The model rates a red card for either side at 6.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Erzurumspor vs Corum?
The model rates Corum to pick up more cards at 49.5%, with a level count at 20.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Süper Lig, Cards

Konyaspor vs Galatasaray cards predictionKocaelispor vs Rizespor cards predictionFenerbahce vs Goztep cards predictionAmedspor vs Eyupspor cards predictionBasaksehir vs Samsunspor cards predictionTrabzonspor vs Gaziantep cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

Süper LigErzurumspor fixtures and statsCorum fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.