AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Süper Lig
BuyuksehyrBuyuksehyrLWDWL
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1113:00UK
SamsunsporSamsunsporLLLLL

Basaksehir vs Samsunspor cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined60.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined39.8%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards60.2%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Buyuksehyr vs Samsunspor. The model leans toward Samsunspor for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 78.8% 21.2%
3.5 cards 60.2% 39.8%
4.5 cards 40.7% 59.3%
5.5 cards 24.4% 75.6%

Who picks up more cards

Buyuksehyr
38.3%
Level
20.2%
Samsunspor
41.5%

Team cards lines

Buyuksehyr

Over 1.5
60.7%
Over 2.5
33.7%

Samsunspor

Over 1.5
62.9%
Over 2.5
36.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Buyuksehyr's; Samsunspor gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Buyuksehyr line Buyuksehyr Samsunspor
-1.5 21.1% 78.9%
-0.5 38.3% 61.7%
+0.5 58.5% 41.5%
+1.5 76.4% 23.6%

Red card

Any red card19.5%
Buyuksehyr red card13.2%
Samsunspor red card7.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 87.2% 12.8%
22.5 fouls 77.1% 22.9%
24.5 fouls 64.3% 35.7%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Samsunspor K. Saglam 2 8.0 3.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

BuyuksehyrBuyuksehyr

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Buyuksehyr at home and Samsunspor away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

SamsunsporSamsunspor
Statistic
Buyuksehyr
Samsunspor
Yellow cards per game
2.7
1.4

First-half yellow cards per game
1.1
0.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.6
0.6

Matches with card data
1
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 60.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 78.8% for over 2.5 to 24.4% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 40.7%. Head to head on cards, Samsunspor are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.5%, with a level count at 20.2%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Buyuksehyr over 1.5 cards sits at 60.7% and Samsunspor at 62.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.5% (Buyuksehyr 13.2%, Samsunspor 7.2%). Samsunspor’s most frequent referee this season, K. Saglam, has averaged 8.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

60.2%Over 3.5 cards
19.5%Any red card
41.5%Most cards: Samsunspor
60.7%Buyuksehyr over 1.5 cards
62.9%Samsunspor over 1.5 cards
77.1%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 60.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherK. Saglam, Samsunspor’s most frequent referee this season, averages 8.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 19.5%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianSamsunspor are the pick to collect more cards at 41.5%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
BuyuksehyrBuyuksehyr

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

SamsunsporSamsunspor
Statistic
Buyuksehyr
Samsunspor
fouls per game
14.5
14.3

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Buyuksehyr vs Samsunspor?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 60.2% for Buyuksehyr vs Samsunspor.
Will there be a red card in Buyuksehyr vs Samsunspor?
The model rates a red card for either side at 19.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Buyuksehyr vs Samsunspor?
The model rates Samsunspor to pick up more cards at 41.5%, with a level count at 20.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Süper LigBasaksehir fixtures and statsSamsunspor fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.