Estrela 0-2 Casa Pia cards: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Estrela0-2Casa Pia
We called Over 3.5 at 72.0% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 83.2% and it landed (0 in the match).
Model read
A clear lean on the model's numbers.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Strong
Over 3.5 cards72.0%
Cards (bookings)
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Estrela vs Casa Pia. Slightly more cards are projected for Casa Pia for the most cards.
Total cards
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 86.6% | 13.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 36.5% | 63.5% |
Who picks up more cards
EstrelaCasa PiaTeam cards lines
Estrela
Casa Pia
Card handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Estrela's; Casa Pia gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Estrela line | Estrela | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.9% | 79.1% |
| -0.5 | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| +0.5 | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| +1.5 | 72.3% | 27.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 85.9% | 14.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 76.9% | 23.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 65.8% | 34.2% |
Card trends
2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Estrela at home and Casa Pia away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 72.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 86.6% for over 2.5 to 36.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.1%. Between the two sides, Casa Pia are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.0%, with a level count at 18.5%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.
In-depth analysis
By team, Estrela over 1.5 cards sits at 67.5% and Casa Pia at 72.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.8% (Estrela 4.5%, Casa Pia 12.9%).
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many cards in Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Will there be a red card in Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Which team will pick up more cards in Estrela vs Casa Pia?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
