AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga
EstorilEstorilLDLLL
Full time1-3Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1015:30UK
MoreirenseMoreirenseLLWDL

Estoril 1-3 Moreirense cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined66.1%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined33.9%

Result

Estoril1-3Moreirense
4 yellow cardsEstoril 3, Moreirense 1
0 red cardsEstoril 0, Moreirense 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 66.1% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 91.6% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards66.1%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Carlos Macedo

Recorded match referee.

Carlos Macedo in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 17 5
Goals 3.29 3.80
Yellow cards 3.12 3.60
Red cards 0.18 0.40
Corners 8.7 10.6
Fouls 25.4 25.0
Both teams scored 35% 80%
Over 2.5 goals 77% 80%
Home wins 65% 40%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Estoril vs Moreirense 1-3 4 Yes 4 0 9 30
11 Oct 2026 Rio Ave vs Nacional 3-2 5 Yes 2 1 16 24
12 Sep 2026 Academico Viseu vs Guimaraes 2-1 3 Yes 7 1 12 25
30 Aug 2026 Nacional vs Estrela 2-3 5 Yes 3 0 7 21
22 Aug 2026 Estoril vs Rio Ave 0-2 2 No 2 0 9 25
10 May 2026 AVS vs Porto 3-1 4 Yes 4 1 10 16
26 Apr 2026 Estoril vs Famalicao 0-1 1 No 2 0 13 30
3 Apr 2026 Guimaraes vs Tondela 5-0 5 No 2 0 4 31
15 Mar 2026 Porto vs Moreirense 3-0 3 No 2 0 5 29
14 Feb 2026 Guimaraes vs Estrela 2-1 3 Yes 5 0 11 31

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Estoril vs Moreirense. The model leans toward Moreirense for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 82.9% 17.1%
3.5 cards 66.1% 33.9%
4.5 cards 47.2% 52.8%
5.5 cards 30.1% 69.9%

Who picks up more cards

Estoril
38.2%
Level
19.3%
Moreirense
42.5%

Team cards lines

Estoril

Over 1.5
64.6%
Over 2.5
37.8%

Moreirense

Over 1.5
67.4%
Over 2.5
40.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Estoril's; Moreirense gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Estoril line Estoril Moreirense
-1.5 21.6% 78.4%
-0.5 38.2% 61.8%
+0.5 57.5% 42.5%
+1.5 75.0% 25.0%

Red card

Any red card8.4%
Estoril red card3.2%
Moreirense red card5.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 84.4% 15.6%
22.5 fouls 74.8% 25.2%
24.5 fouls 63.3% 36.7%
EstorilEstoril

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Estoril at home and Moreirense away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

MoreirenseMoreirense
Statistic
Estoril
Moreirense
Yellow cards per game
1.8
3.4

Matches with card data
2
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 66.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 82.9% for over 2.5 to 30.1% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.2%. On the card count, Moreirense are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.5%, with a level count at 19.3%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Estoril over 1.5 cards sits at 64.6% and Moreirense at 67.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.4% (Estoril 3.2%, Moreirense 5.4%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

66.1%Over 3.5 cards
8.4%Any red card
42.5%Most cards: Moreirense
64.6%Estoril over 1.5 cards
67.4%Moreirense over 1.5 cards
74.8%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 66.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 8.4%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianMoreirense are the pick to collect more cards at 42.5%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 47.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
EstorilEstoril

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

MoreirenseMoreirense
Statistic
Estoril
Moreirense
fouls per game
12.0
14.2

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Estoril vs Moreirense?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 66.1% for Estoril vs Moreirense.
Will there be a red card in Estoril vs Moreirense?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 8.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Estoril vs Moreirense?
Before kickoff, the model rated Moreirense to pick up more cards at 42.5%, with a level count at 19.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Primeira LigaEstoril fixtures and statsMoreirense fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.