Rio Ave vs Nacional: model prediction
Primeira Liga
Rio AveLWLLD
NacionalWLLLL
Over 1.5 goals
Draw or Nacional
Rio Ave or draw
Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Win probability · fair 2.65
Top signals
Model read
Rio Ave versus Nacional in the Primeira Liga on 11 October 2026 is finely balanced. Nacional edge it at 38%, but the gap to the field is slim. Totals sit close to the fence: 49% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 54%. Schedule edge: Nacional have had 3 more days of rest than Rio Ave. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Rio Ave, 2 draws and 1 for Nacional at 3.6 goals per match. Form guide over the last six: Rio Ave W1 D1 L4, Nacional W1 D1 L4. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
Model vs market
34.8%
27.5%
37.7%
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Rio Ave 2 · 2 draws · Nacional 1 · 3.6 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Rio AveNacional50.0%57.1%
25.0%42.9%
12.5%14.3%
League averages this season: 2.86 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 59% · BTTS in 52%. Full league tables & stats →
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 61.4% | Over 24.5 | 49.4% | Over 26.5 | 37.9% | Over 28.5 | 27.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Rio Ave | 56.0% | Most: Nacional | 38.1% | ||||
| Rio Ave Over 13.2 | 44.2% | Nacional Over 13.2 | 31.6% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 73.0% | Over 7.5 | 60.8% | Over 8.5 | 48.1% | Over 9.5 | 36.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Rio Ave | 45.7% | Most: Nacional | 41.4% | ||||
| Rio Ave Over 4.2 | 43.8% | Nacional Over 4.2 | 40.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 83.0% | Over 3.5 | 66.3% | Over 4.5 | 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Rio Ave | 37.7% | Most: Nacional | 43.0% | ||
| Rio Ave Over 1.8 | 64.4% | Nacional Over 1.8 | 67.8% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
| Rio Ave clean sheet | 26.0% |
|---|---|
| Nacional clean sheet | 27.6% |
| Rio Ave win to nil | 18.1% |
| Nacional win to nil | 19.8% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 34.8% | draw | 27.5% | away | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 62.3% | 12 | 72.6% | X2 | 65.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 48.0% | away | 52.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 54.1% | no | 45.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 26.0% | away | 27.7% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 18.2% | away | 19.9% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 19.3% | home_by_2 | 10.2% | home_by_3plus | 5.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 20.3% | away_by_2 | 11.2% | away_by_3plus | 6.3% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.9% | 0-1 | 9.1% | 0-2 | 6.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.9% | 0-4 | 1.0% | 0-5 | 0.3% |
| 1-0 | 8.6% | 1-1 | 13.1% | 1-2 | 8.4% |
| 1-3 | 3.8% | 1-4 | 1.3% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 5.9% | 2-1 | 8.0% | 2-2 | 5.4% |
| 2-3 | 2.4% | 2-4 | 0.8% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.5% | 3-1 | 3.4% | 3-2 | 2.3% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.8% | 4-1 | 1.1% | 4-2 | 0.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.2% | under_0.5 | 7.9% | over_1.5 | 74.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 25.6% | over_2.5 | 48.9% | under_2.5 | 51.1% |
| over_3.5 | 27.1% | under_3.5 | 72.9% | over_4.5 | 12.7% |
| under_4.5 | 87.3% | over_5.5 | 5.2% | under_5.5 | 94.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 72.3% | under_0.5 | 27.7% | over_1.5 | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.2% | over_2.5 | 14.0% | under_2.5 | 86.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 74.0% | under_0.5 | 26.0% | over_1.5 | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.1% | over_2.5 | 15.4% | under_2.5 | 84.6% |
most
| home | 34.8% | draw | 27.5% | away | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 5.4% | away_+2.5 | 94.6% | home_-1.5 | 15.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 84.5% | home_-0.5 | 34.8% | away_+0.5 | 65.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.3% | away_-0.5 | 37.7% | home_+1.5 | 82.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 17.5% | home_+2.5 | 93.8% | away_-2.5 | 6.3% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.9% | exact_1 | 17.7% | exact_2 | 25.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.8% | exact_4 | 14.4% | exact_5 | 7.6% |
| exact_6 | 3.3% | exact_7plus | 1.8% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 27.3% | draw | 43.1% | away | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 68.2% | under_0.5 | 31.8% | over_1.5 | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.2% | over_2.5 | 10.9% | under_2.5 | 89.1% |
btts
| yes | 19.0% | no | 81.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 31.8% | exact_1 | 36.4% | exact_2 | 20.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.0% | exact_4plus | 2.9% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 29.0% | draw | 38.8% | away | 32.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.6% | under_0.5 | 25.4% | over_1.5 | 39.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.2% | over_2.5 | 16.0% | under_2.5 | 84.0% |
btts
| yes | 24.6% | no | 75.4% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 20.1% | H/D | 5.1% | H/A | 2.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 12.5% | D/D | 16.7% | D/A | 13.9% |
| A/H | 1.9% | A/D | 5.0% | A/A | 22.7% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 71.6% | under_7.5 | 28.4% | over_8.5 | 60.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 39.4% | over_9.5 | 49.4% | under_9.5 | 50.6% |
| over_10.5 | 38.6% | under_10.5 | 61.4% | over_11.5 | 29.0% |
| under_11.5 | 71.0% | over_12.5 | 21.0% | under_12.5 | 79.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 70.9% | under_3.5 | 29.1% | over_4.5 | 56.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 43.6% | over_5.5 | 42.4% | under_5.5 | 57.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.9% | under_3.5 | 40.1% | over_4.5 | 44.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.0% | over_5.5 | 30.3% | under_5.5 | 69.7% |
most
| home | 53.1% | draw | 10.0% | away | 36.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.9% | away_+3.5 | 75.1% | home_-1.5 | 43.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.0% | home_-0.5 | 53.1% | away_+0.5 | 46.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.1% | away_-0.5 | 36.9% | home_+1.5 | 72.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 27.8% | home_+3.5 | 86.3% | away_-3.5 | 13.7% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 61.4% | under_22.5 | 38.6% | over_24.5 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 50.6% | over_26.5 | 37.9% | under_26.5 | 62.1% |
| over_28.5 | 27.5% | under_28.5 | 72.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 68.4% | under_10.5 | 31.6% | over_12.5 | 52.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 47.8% | over_14.5 | 36.7% | under_14.5 | 63.3% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 56.4% | under_10.5 | 43.6% | over_12.5 | 39.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 60.7% | over_14.5 | 24.9% | under_14.5 | 75.1% |
most
| home | 56.0% | draw | 5.9% | away | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 32.4% | away_+4.5 | 67.7% | home_-2.5 | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 56.1% | home_-0.5 | 56.0% | away_+0.5 | 44.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.9% | away_-0.5 | 38.1% | home_+2.5 | 72.9% |
| away_-2.5 | 27.1% | home_+4.5 | 81.9% | away_-4.5 | 18.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 73.0% | under_6.5 | 27.0% | over_7.5 | 60.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 39.2% | over_8.5 | 48.1% | under_8.5 | 51.9% |
| over_9.5 | 36.1% | under_9.5 | 63.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 61.7% | under_3.5 | 38.3% | over_4.5 | 43.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.2% | over_5.5 | 28.4% | under_5.5 | 71.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 58.8% | under_3.5 | 41.2% | over_4.5 | 40.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.3% | over_5.5 | 25.7% | under_5.5 | 74.3% |
most
| home | 45.7% | draw | 12.9% | away | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 22.5% | away_+2.5 | 77.5% | home_-0.5 | 45.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 54.3% | home_+0.5 | 58.6% | away_-0.5 | 41.4% |
| home_+2.5 | 80.6% | away_-2.5 | 19.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 83.0% | under_2.5 | 17.0% | over_3.5 | 66.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 33.7% | over_4.5 | 47.4% | under_4.5 | 52.6% |
| over_5.5 | 30.3% | under_5.5 | 69.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 64.4% | under_1.5 | 35.6% | over_2.5 | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 62.4% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 67.8% | under_1.5 | 32.2% | over_2.5 | 41.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 58.5% |
most
| home | 37.7% | draw | 19.3% | away | 43.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 21.2% | away_+1.5 | 78.8% | home_-0.5 | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.3% | home_+0.5 | 57.0% | away_-0.5 | 43.0% |
| home_+1.5 | 74.6% | away_-1.5 | 25.4% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 80.5% | under_20.5 | 19.5% | over_22.5 | 69.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 30.5% | over_24.5 | 57.0% | under_24.5 | 43.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 74.8% | under_9.5 | 25.2% | over_11.5 | 56.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 43.2% | over_13.5 | 38.6% | under_13.5 | 61.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 80.1% | under_9.5 | 19.9% | over_11.5 | 63.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 36.1% | over_13.5 | 46.0% | under_13.5 | 54.0% |
most
| home | 41.5% | draw | 6.5% | away | 52.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.0% | away_+3.5 | 76.0% | home_-0.5 | 41.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 58.5% | home_+2.5 | 60.9% | away_-2.5 | 39.1% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 20.1% | no | 79.9% |
|---|
home
| yes | 14.5% | no | 85.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.6% | no | 93.5% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: Rio Ave predictions · Nacional predictions · Primeira Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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