AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
DortmundDortmundWWWDD
Full time1-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1017:30UK11°C · Cloudy
Ein FrankfurtEin FrankfurtLWDLW

Dortmund 1-0 Eintracht Frankfurt cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.8%

Result

Dortmund1-0Ein Frankfurt
2 yellow cardsDortmund 0, Ein Frankfurt 2
0 red cardsDortmund 0, Ein Frankfurt 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 50.2% and it missed (2 in the match). We called No at 88.4% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards50.2%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Sven Jablonski

Recorded match referee.

Sven Jablonski in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 22 4
Goals 3.36 Not available
Yellow cards 2.77 Not available
Red cards 0.05 Not available
Corners 10.4 Not available
Fouls 21.3 Not available
Both teams scored 46% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 68% Not available
Home wins 59% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Dortmund vs Ein Frankfurt 1-0 1 No 2 0 14 19
10 Oct 2026 Augsburg vs Bayern Munich 2-2 4 Yes 3 0 14 16
12 Sep 2026 Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart 2-1 3 Yes 1 0 12 23
29 Aug 2026 RB Leipzig vs M'gladbach 3-0 3 No 1 0 13 23
10 May 2026 FC Koln vs Heidenheim 1-3 4 Yes 4 0 10 17
24 Apr 2026 RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin 3-1 4 Yes 2 0 14 16
12 Apr 2026 Stuttgart vs Hamburg 4-0 4 No 3 0 10 24
4 Apr 2026 Dresden vs Hertha2. Bundesliga 0-1 1 No 4 1 9 25
20 Mar 2026 RB Leipzig vs Hoffenheim 5-0 5 No 2 0 4 24
15 Mar 2026 Freiburg vs Union Berlin 0-1 1 No 2 0 8 25

Sven Jablonski referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Dortmund vs Ein Frankfurt. It tips Dortmund for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 71.1% 28.9%
3.5 cards 50.2% 49.8%
4.5 cards 30.9% 69.1%
5.5 cards 16.7% 83.3%

Who picks up more cards

Dortmund
39.2%
Level
21.7%
Ein Frankfurt
39.1%

Team cards lines

Dortmund

Over 1.5
55.0%
Over 2.5
28.1%

Ein Frankfurt

Over 1.5
54.9%
Over 2.5
28.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Dortmund's; Ein Frankfurt gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Dortmund line Dortmund Ein Frankfurt
-1.5 20.8% 79.2%
-0.5 39.2% 60.8%
+0.5 60.9% 39.1%
+1.5 79.3% 20.7%

Red card

Any red card11.7%
Dortmund red card5.3%
Ein Frankfurt red card6.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 52.1% 47.9%
22.5 fouls 39.6% 60.4%
24.5 fouls 28.5% 71.5%
DortmundDortmund

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Dortmund at home and Ein Frankfurt away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Ein FrankfurtEin Frankfurt
Statistic
Dortmund
Ein Frankfurt
Yellow cards per game
2.4
2.4

First-half yellow cards per game
0.2
1.0

Second-half yellow cards per game
2.2
1.4

Matches with card data
3
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 50.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 71.1% for over 2.5 to 16.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.2%. On the card count, Dortmund are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.2%, with a level count at 21.7%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Dortmund over 1.5 cards sits at 55.0% and Ein Frankfurt at 54.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.7% (Dortmund 5.3%, Ein Frankfurt 6.7%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

50.2%Over 3.5 cards
11.7%Any red card
39.2%Most cards: Dortmund
55.0%Dortmund over 1.5 cards
54.9%Ein Frankfurt over 1.5 cards
39.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 50.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 11.7%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianDortmund are the pick to collect more cards at 39.2%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 50.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
DortmundDortmund

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Ein FrankfurtEin Frankfurt
Statistic
Dortmund
Ein Frankfurt
fouls per game
11.0
10.8

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Dortmund vs Ein Frankfurt?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 50.2% for Dortmund vs Ein Frankfurt.
Will there be a red card in Dortmund vs Ein Frankfurt?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 11.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Dortmund vs Ein Frankfurt?
Before kickoff, the model rated Dortmund to pick up more cards at 39.2%, with a level count at 21.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

BundesligaDortmund fixtures and statsEintracht Frankfurt fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.