Premier League
Crystal Palace vs 
Nottingham Forest Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 52.0%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 63.6% for over 22.5 to 30.2% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.0%. On the shot count, Crystal Palace are the model’s pick to have more shots at 58.9%, with a level count at 5.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| 26.5 shots | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 30.2% | 69.8% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
71.3%
56.0%
40.8%
55.8%
39.0%
25.0%
Shot handicap
| Crystal Palace line | Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 35.7% | 64.3% |
| -2.5 | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| -0.5 | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| +0.5 | 64.6% | 35.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 73.7% | 26.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 39.1% | 60.9% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
5.4 / 5.2
7.4 / 9.0
This season (2026/27)
10.6Crystal Palace shots per game16.8Crystal Palace shots faced per game5.4Crystal Palace first-half shots5.2Crystal Palace second-half shots16.4Nottingham Forest shots per game10.4Nottingham Forest shots faced per game7.4Nottingham Forest first-half shots9.0Nottingham Forest second-half shotsShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Crystal Palace.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
52.0%Over 24.5 shots56.0%Crystal Palace over 12.5 shots39.0%Nottingham Forest over 12.5 shots62.3%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Crystal Palace over 12.5 shots sits at 56.0% and Nottingham Forest at 39.0%. This season Crystal Palace have averaged 10.6 shots a game and Nottingham Forest 16.4. Crystal Palace take 5.4 shots before half-time and 5.2 after, Nottingham Forest 7.4 and 9.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 52.0% for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest.
Which team will have more shots in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
The model rates Crystal Palace to take more shots at 58.9%.
Do Crystal Palace shoot more in the first or second half?
Crystal Palace average 5.4 shots before half-time and 5.2 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,949 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
