Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest prediction & probabilities (2026-10-11)

Premier League

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest Both Teams to Score

2026-10-11 · 14:00
Both Teams to Score53.6%Both teams to score · Yes
Best predictionBoth teams to score · Yes · 53.6%Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean. Calibrated, not a tip.
54%

model probability

ConvictionLean

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Both teams to score · Yes at 53.6%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Crystal Palace have averaged 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded, Nottingham Forest 0.8 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 48.5% for over 2.5 and 74.1% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.8 goals a game. Crystal Palace have seen both teams score in 3 of their last 5, Nottingham Forest in 2 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.

Both Teams to Score

★ ModelYes53.6%

No46.4%

Over 2.5 · context48.5%

Recent scoring & conceding (per game)

Crystal Palace scored

1.2

Crystal Palace conceded

2.2

Nottingham Forest scored

0.8

Nottingham Forest conceded

1.0

Each team to score

Crystal Palace to score73.2%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals38.2%

Nottingham Forest to score72.4%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals36.9%

By half

Both score in 1st half17.3%

Both score in 2nd half25.8%

This season (2026/27)

60.0%Crystal Palace BTTS rate
20.0%Crystal Palace clean sheets
1.2Crystal Palace goals scored per game
40.0%Nottingham Forest BTTS rate
20.0%Nottingham Forest clean sheets
0.8Nottingham Forest goals scored per game

Goals distribution

How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.

8.0%

0

17.9%

1

25.6%

2

21.8%

3

14.2%

4

12.0%

5+

In-depth analysis

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

37.8%Favoured: Crystal Palace
53.6%Both Teams to Score
48.5%Over 2.5 goals

For the goal environment, the model sees 48.5% for three or more goals and 74.1% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Crystal Palace favoured at 37.8%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 53.6% on Both Teams to Score, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianReads a balanced game from the 48.5% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutCrystal Palace are the model’s pick on the result at 37.8%, game state shapes how this market plays out.
The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

Match outlook

Crystal Palace37.8%

Draw27.1%

Nottingham Forest35.1%

The model leans Crystal Palace to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

E

Eddie NketiahCrystal Palace · 3.45 shots/90
To score 11.0%

A

Arnaud Kalimuendo MuingaNottingham Forest · 2.35 shots/90
To score 30.1%

This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

Crystal PalaceLLWLD
Nottingham ForestLDDWL

Last 5 meetings: Crystal Palace 0 · 4 draws · Nottingham Forest 1 · 1.8 goals/game.

Recent trends

Crystal PalaceBTTS 3/5Over 2.5 3/5
Nottingham ForestBTTS 2/5Over 2.5 2/5

How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.

FAQ

Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Our calibrated model rates Both Teams to Score at 53.6% for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest.

Will Crystal Palace score against Nottingham Forest?
The model rates Crystal Palace to score at 73.2% and Nottingham Forest to score at 72.4%.

How often have Crystal Palace seen both teams score recently?
Crystal Palace have seen both teams score in 3 of their last 5, Nottingham Forest in 2 of 5.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Both Teams to Score accuracy

How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

53.3%Best Both Teams to Score call, hit rate
0.0231Calibration error
55,617Matches graded

In 26,755 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 53.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls

Our most recent Both Teams to Score calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 61.8%✗ 54.5%✗ 51.3%✓ 55.8%✗ 67.4%✗ 62.0%✓ 64.5%✓ 60.1%✓ 59.0%✓ 55.0%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool2026-09-20Yes 61.8%Miss
Leeds vs Crystal Palace2026-09-20Yes 54.5%Miss
Manchester City vs Sunderland2026-09-20No 51.3%Miss
Fulham vs Manchester United2026-09-20Yes 55.8%Hit
Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig2026-09-20Yes 67.4%Miss

More Premier League, Both Teams to Score

All Both Teams to Score predictions →

Related

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.