League TwoPort Vale vs Northampton Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 49.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 70.3% for over 2.5 to 16.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.1%. Head to head on cards, Northampton are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.6%, with a level count at 21.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 29.9% | 70.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.0% | 84.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
49.3%
23.1%
58.7%
31.6%
Card handicap
| Port Vale line | Port Vale | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.1% | 83.9% |
| -0.5 | 32.8% | 67.2% |
| +0.5 | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| +1.5 | 74.3% | 25.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 40.2% | 59.8% |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Port Vale cards per game14.8Port Vale fouls per game1.7Northampton cards per game10.8Northampton fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Port Vale vs Northampton. The model leans toward Northampton for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
49.1%Over 3.5 cards12.0%Any red card49.3%Port Vale over 1.5 cards58.7%Northampton over 1.5 cards55.4%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Port Vale over 1.5 cards sits at 49.3% and Northampton at 58.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.0% (Port Vale 2.4%, Northampton 9.8%). This season Port Vale have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Northampton 1.7.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Port Vale vs Northampton?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 49.1% for Port Vale vs Northampton.
Will there be a red card in Port Vale vs Northampton?
The model rates a red card for either side at 12.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Port Vale vs Northampton?
The model rates Northampton to pick up more cards at 45.6%, with a level count at 21.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,168 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
