League TwoCrawley Town vs Barnet Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 55.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.5% for over 2.5 to 20.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.8%. Head to head on cards, Barnet are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.7%, with a level count at 20.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 20.8% | 79.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
58.0%
31.0%
59.6%
32.5%
Card handicap
| Crawley Town line | Crawley Town | Barnet |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.8% | 79.2% |
| -0.5 | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| +0.5 | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| +1.5 | 77.5% | 22.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 77.0% | 23.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 48.7% | 51.3% |
This season (2026/27)
3.2Crawley Town cards per game9.3Crawley Town fouls per game1.7Barnet cards per game13.5Barnet fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Crawley Town vs Barnet. Slightly more cards are projected for Barnet for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
55.8%Over 3.5 cards23.5%Any red card58.0%Crawley Town over 1.5 cards59.6%Barnet over 1.5 cards63.6%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Crawley Town over 1.5 cards sits at 58.0% and Barnet at 59.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 23.5% (Crawley Town 11.1%, Barnet 14.0%). This season Crawley Town have averaged 3.2 cards a game and Barnet 1.7.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Crawley Town vs Barnet?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 55.8% for Crawley Town vs Barnet.
Will there be a red card in Crawley Town vs Barnet?
The model rates a red card for either side at 23.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Crawley Town vs Barnet?
The model rates Barnet to pick up more cards at 40.7%, with a level count at 20.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,115 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
