AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Premier League
ChelseaChelseaLDLWW
Full time0-2Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1017:30UK12°C · Rain
TottenhamTottenhamDDLDW

Chelsea 0-2 Tottenham cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined64.7%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined35.3%

Result

Chelsea0-2Tottenham
5 yellow cardsChelsea 2, Tottenham 3
1 red cardsChelsea 1, Tottenham 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 64.7% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 87.6% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards64.7%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Chris Kavanagh

Recorded match referee.

Chris Kavanagh in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 295 6
Goals 2.57 2.67
Yellow cards 3.49 5.33
Red cards 0.12 0.67
Corners 10.4 11.2
Fouls 21.7 26.8
Both teams scored 51% 50%
Over 2.5 goals 52% 50%
Home wins 44% 33%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Chelsea vs Tottenham 0-2 2 No 7 1 10 28
17 Oct 2026 Fulham vs Hull 1-0 1 No 4 1 12 24
11 Oct 2026 Liverpool vs Manchester City 0-3 3 No 6 1 11 33
12 Sep 2026 Crystal Palace vs Ipswich 2-3 5 Yes 4 1 9 22
6 Sep 2026 Arsenal vs Chelsea 2-1 3 Yes 6 0 8 29
29 Aug 2026 Bournemouth vs Everton 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 17 25
24 May 2026 Sunderland vs Chelsea 2-1 3 Yes 5 0 14 33
15 May 2026 Aston Villa vs Liverpool 4-2 6 Yes 4 0 13 21
10 May 2026 West Ham vs Arsenal 0-1 1 No 7 0 7 26
2 May 2026 Newcastle vs Brighton 3-1 4 Yes 6 0 12 22

Chris Kavanagh referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Chelsea vs Tottenham. It tips Tottenham for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 82.0% 18.1%
3.5 cards 64.7% 35.3%
4.5 cards 45.6% 54.4%
5.5 cards 28.7% 71.3%

Who picks up more cards

Chelsea
31.3%
Level
19.1%
Tottenham
49.7%

Team cards lines

Chelsea

Over 1.5
58.5%
Over 2.5
31.5%

Tottenham

Over 1.5
70.7%
Over 2.5
44.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Chelsea's; Tottenham gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Chelsea line Chelsea Tottenham
-1.5 16.3% 83.7%
-0.5 31.3% 68.7%
+0.5 50.3% 49.7%
+1.5 69.1% 30.9%

Red card

Any red card12.4%
Chelsea red card6.5%
Tottenham red card6.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 72.4% 27.6%
22.5 fouls 57.5% 42.5%
24.5 fouls 42.0% 58.0%
ChelseaChelsea

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Chelsea at home and Tottenham away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

TottenhamTottenham
Statistic
Chelsea
Tottenham
Yellow cards per game
1.8
1.0

First-half yellow cards per game
0.8
0.8

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.0
0.2

Matches with card data
1
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 64.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 82.0% for over 2.5 to 28.7% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.6%. Between the two sides, Tottenham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.7%, with a level count at 19.1%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Chelsea over 1.5 cards sits at 58.5% and Tottenham at 70.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.4% (Chelsea 6.5%, Tottenham 6.4%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

64.7%Over 3.5 cards
12.4%Any red card
49.7%Most cards: Tottenham
58.5%Chelsea over 1.5 cards
70.7%Tottenham over 1.5 cards
57.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 64.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 12.4%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianTottenham are the pick to collect more cards at 49.7%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 45.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
ChelseaChelsea

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

TottenhamTottenham
Statistic
Chelsea
Tottenham
fouls per game
8.6
13.2

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Chelsea vs Tottenham?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 64.7% for Chelsea vs Tottenham.
Will there be a red card in Chelsea vs Tottenham?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 12.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Chelsea vs Tottenham?
Before kickoff, the model rated Tottenham to pick up more cards at 49.7%, with a level count at 19.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Premier LeagueChelsea fixtures and statsTottenham fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.